DATE=4/6/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=CHINA TRADE VOTE
NUMBER=5-46091
BYLINE=PAULA WOLFSON
DATELINE=CAPITOL HILL
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 


INTRO:  The countdown has begun for what may be the 
most crucial vote of the year in the U-S Congress.  
During the week of May 22nd, the House of 
Representatives will act on an agreement with China 
that calls for permanent normal trade relations with 
the United States -- something the diplomats call P-N-
T-R.  As V-O-A's Paula Wolfson reports, it's likely to 
be a close vote complicated by election year politics.


TEXT:  When House Republican leader Dick Armey speaks 
of the China trade vote, he sounds confident.

            /// Armey Act ///

      We know that free and open trade will help make 
      China an open and free society.  We will pass P-
      N-T-R and we will do it this year.

            /// End Act ///

House Republicans are overwhelmingly pro-business and 
pro-trade.  They know this is a big issue for party 
supporters in corporate America.

Virginia Congressman Tom Davis coordinates 
congressional campaigns for the Republicans.

            /// Davis Act ///

      I think the trade issue with China is probably 
      the most significant issue we will face this 
      year.  It will have some bearing on the 
      congressional elections, but I think more long 
      term, it will have a bearing on the American 
      economy and on what happens with world peace.

            /// End Act ///

The Republicans say they can provide the bulk of the 
votes needed (a simple majority of those voting) to 
grant China permanent normal trade status, instead of 
subjecting Beijing to annual renewals.  But they are 
urging the White House to bring in as many as 100 
House Democrats in a show of bipartisan support.

Their request dramatizes a problem that has plagued 
the Clinton administration's trade policy from the 
very beginning.  Mr. Clinton has repeatedly said that 
trade is the last great dividing issue for the 
Democrats.  He faces tough opposition within his own 
party.   And it emanates from the very top of the 
House Democratic leadership.

            /// Bonior Tease Act ///

      You can not have a free market without free 
      people.

            /// End Act ///

Congressman David Bonior of Michigan is the number two 
Democrat in the House of Representatives.  He says 
opponents of the China agreement believe in trade and 
the benefits it can bring.

            /// Bonior Act ///

      But we also believe in human rights.  We believe 
      in environmental protections.  We believe in the 
      responsible use of nuclear technology.  And we 
      believe there can not be free trade unless there 
      is political freedom as well.

            /// End Act ///

Once again, core constituencies are coming into play.  
For Republicans, it is the business community.  For 
the Democrats, it is organized labor.  Union leaders 
fear a flood cheap imports produced by low-wage 
foreign workers will cost American jobs.

Will Marshall is a long-time observer of Democratic 
Party politics:

            /// Marshall Act ///

      Labor has a lot of money and organizational 
      clout in campaigns.  And Democrats don't want to 
      be deprived of these assets.

            /// End Act ///

Mr. Marshall is allied with a group of centrist 
Democrats called the Democratic Leadership Council.  
He is their specialist on trade matters.   And he 
predicts the pressure on House Democrats will increase 
in the days and weeks leading up to the China vote.

            /// Marshall Act ///

      I think labor has become even more militant 
      against trade-expanding agreements since the 
      debacle in Seattle when the W-T-O [World Trade 
      Organization] ministerial there ended in 
      failure.  I think labor was energized by that.  
      They were part of a broad coalition of people 
      who were protesting against the World Trade 
      Organization in Seattle. So they feel like they 
      are on a roll [EDS: they can't lose].

            /// End Act ///

But Mr. Marshall stresses the leaders of the labor 
movement are also realists.  He says they have an 
agenda that goes far beyond trade agreements, and they 
know it will never advance with the Republicans in 
power in Congress.

            /// Marshall Act ///

      ...and to some extent they are trying to bluff a 
      lot of Democrats into thinking they would really 
      try to hurt them if they buck labor on the China 
      vote, but in the end they won't do that because 
      they have a higher interest in making sure 
      Democrats regain [control of] Congress.

            /// End Act ///

A sigh of relief was heard at the White House when 
House Speaker Dennis Hastert announced the date for 
the China vote.  The administration had feared the 
Republican leadership would schedule the debate much 
later in the legislative session.  Instead, it will 
occur roughly five-and-a-half months before election 
day - enough time, perhaps, for rifts to heal and for 
attention to shift to other issues. . (signed)

NEB/PW/JP




06-Apr-2000 15:24 PM EDT (06-Apr-2000 1924 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.