DATE= 10/28/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-37920
TITLE=CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS - PT. II
BYLINE=FRANK RONALDS
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: THIRTY-FIVE YEARS AGO THIS MONTH, THE UNITED STATES AND
THE FORMER SOVIET UNION FOUND A WAY TO RESOLVE THE CUBAN MISSILE
CRISIS -- AND AVERT THE POSSIBILITY OF NUCLEAR WAR. SINCE THEN,
THE WORLD HAS NEVER COME AS CLOSE TO A NUCLEAR EXCHANGE -- BUT
ANALYSTS SAY THE POSSIBILITY IS NOT AS REMOTE AS SOME MAY
THINK. WE HEAR MORE IN THIS SECOND OF TWO REPORTS BY V-O-A'S
FRANK RONALDS.
TEXT: ALTHOUGH THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS ENDED PEACEFULLY, IT DID
NOT PUT AN END TO THE NUCLEAR ARMS RACE. ON THE CONTRARY,
SOVIET LEADERS -- ESPECIALLY AFTER NIKITA KHRUSHCHEV'S FALL FROM
POWER IN 1964 -- LAUNCHED AN ENORMOUSLY EXPENSIVE AND SUCCESSFUL
EFFORT TO CATCH UP WITH THE UNITED STATES. BY THE 1970'S,
WASHINGTON AND MOSCOW REACHED AGREEMENTS LIMITING THE NUMBER OF
INTER-CONTINENTAL BALLISTIC MISSILES. BUT IT WAS NOT UNTIL THE
END OF THE COLD WAR THAT THE SUPERPOWERS AGREED TO ACTUAL
REDUCTIONS IN SUCH WEAPONS.
LATE LAST YEAR, IN RESPONSE TO AN INITIATIVE BY THE ATLANTIC
COUNCIL -- A NON-GOVERNMENTAL GROUP THAT SUPPORTS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANIZATION -- MORE THAN 60 GENERALS AND
ADMIRALS FROM 17 COUNTRIES, INCLUDING RUSSIA AND THE UNITED
STATES, JOINED TO CALL FOR RAPID NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT UNDER A
WORLDWIDE VERIFICATION SYSTEM.
GENERAL LEE BUTLER, WHO WAS COMMANDER OF THE U-S STRATEGIC AIR
COMMAND, SPOKE IN WASHINGTON (LAST YEAR), THE DAY BEFORE THE
STATEMENT BY THE GENERALS AND ADMIRALS WAS RELEASED.
// BUTLER ACT //
A WORLD FREE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IS NECESSARILY A WORLD
DEVOID OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS. IS IT POSSIBLE TO FORM A
CONSENSUS ON THE PROPOSITIONS THAT NUCLEAR WEAPONS HAVE
NO DEFENSIBLE ROLE, AND THAT, AS TRUE WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION, THE CASE FOR THEIR ELIMINATION IS A
THOUSAND-FOLD STRONGER AND MORE URGENT THAN THAT FOR
DEADLY CHEMICALS AND VIRUSES WIDELY DECLARED IMMORAL,
ILLEGAL, SUBJECT TO DESTRUCTION AND PROHIBITED FROM ANY
FURTHER PRODUCTION? I AM PERSUADED THAT SUCH A
CONSENSUS IS NOT ONLY POSSIBLE, IT IS IMPERATIVE.
// END ACT //
BUT OTHER SPECIALISTS HAVE SPOKEN UP TO SAY IT IS UNREALISTIC TO
BELIEVE THAT NUCLEAR WEAPONS CAN BE ELIMINATED. RICHARD HAASS,
DIRECTOR OF FOREIGN POLICY STUDIES AT THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION,
POINTS OUT THAT THE TECHNOLOGY FOR MAKING NUCLEAR WEAPONS IS NOW
WIDELY KNOWN.
// HAASS ACT //
// OPT // I DON'T SEE ANY WAY TO DISINVENT AN IDEA.
THE IDEA IS OUT THERE. OTHER PEOPLE CAN NOW GO AHEAD,
WHETHER THEY'RE GOVERNMENTS OR EVEN, CONCEIVABLY, IN THE
FUTURE, SOME NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS. SECONDLY,
I DON'T KNOW ANY WAY TO HAVE AN INTERNATIONAL
VERIFICATION SYSTEM THAT IS A HUNDRED PERCENT FOOLPROOF.
// END OPT //
WE'VE LEARNED OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS WITH BOTH (NORTH)
KOREA AND IRAQ, WE OFTEN DON'T KNOW (ARE NOT AWARE OF)
WHAT WE DON'T KNOW. AND INDEED, THE WHOLE IDEA THAT YOU
WILL GET EVERYONE IN THE WORLD TO SIGN UP TO SUCH A
SCHEME, BOTH THE NUCLEAR HAVES AND THE NUCLEAR
HAVE-NOTS, SEEMS TO ME TO BE A FORM OF OPTIMISM OR
IDEALISM THAT IS SIMPLE SO FAR FROM REALITY AS TO NOT
BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.
// END ACT //
// OPT // EVEN IF RUSSIA AND THE UNITED STATES LEAD THE WAY, MR.
HAASS SAYS, HE DOUBTS THAT OTHER COUNTRIES WILL BE WILLING TO
FOLLOW SUIT.
// OPT // HAASS ACT //
THE BRITISH AND FRENCH MAY DECIDE TO KEEP A CERTAIN
SIZED ARSENAL JUST AS THEIR BEST INSURANCE POLICY TO
RETAIN SOME FORM OF GREAT POWER STATUS. CHINA HAS A
RANGE OF AMBITIONS AND A RANGE OF COUNTRIES IT IS
CONSIDERING ITSELF TO BE MEASURED AGAINST. ONE IS
RUSSIA, ONE IS THE UNITED STATES. IT'S ALSO THINKING
ABOUT JAPAN AND ITS POTENTIAL MILITARY STRENGTH. CHINA
IS AN EMERGING GREAT POWER. SO I DON'T NECESSARILY SEE
WHERE U-S AND RUSSIAN REDUCTIONS WOULD LEAD THE CHINESE
TO FOLLOW SUIT. WHEN IT COMES TO THE UNDECLARED
(NUCLEAR) POWERS -- AND HERE WE ARE ESSENTIALLY TALKING
RICHT NOW ABOUT ISRAEL, PAKISTAN AND INDIA. IN THE
FUTURE WE MAY ALSO BE TALKING ABOUT SEVERAL OTHERS: THE
IRANS, THE IRAQS, WHO KNOWS WHO ELSE -- I DON'T SEE ANY
OF THEM WILLING TO GIVE UP THEIR NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES OR
THEIR NUCLEAR OPTIONS UNTIL THE SOURCES OF THEIR
STRATEGIC CONCERNS ARE MET.
// END ACT // END OPT //
THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY HAS THE JOB OF PREVENTING
THE SPREAD OF FISSILE MATERIALS OR THE BUILDING OF NUCLEAR
DEVICES. IT HAS THE FULL AUTHORITY OF THE UNITED NATIONS, WHICH
VOTED IN 1995 TO EXTEND THE NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY
INDEFINITELY.
BUT THE AGENCY DEPENDS ON THE WILLINGNESS OF INDIVIDUAL STATES TO
PERMIT IT TO COME IN AND MONITOR WHAT IS GOING ON. MICHAEL
MANDELBAUM, A PROFESSOR AT THE SCHOOL OF ADVANCE INTERNATIONAL
AFFAIRS AT JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY IN WASHINGTON, SAYS THE
EXAMPLE OF IRAQ IS NOT REASSURING. HE POINTS OUT THAT IRAQ'S
NUCLEAR INSTALLATION AT OSIRAQ WAS DESTROYED BY AN ISRAEL AIR
RAID IN 1981. HOWEVER, AS A RESULT OF THE 1991 OPERATION DESERT
STORM -- THE INTERNATIONAL REACTION TO THE IRAQI INVASION OF
KUWAIT -- IT WAS DETERMINED THAT SADDAM HUSSEIN'S GOVERNMENT HAD
CONTINUED TO WORK INTENSIVELY TO PRODUCE NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
// MANDELBAUM ACT //
// OPT // AS AN IMPORTANT BY-PRODUCT, OPERATION DESERT
STORM DESTROYED OR CRIPPLED MUCH OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE
ON WHICH SADDAM HAD LAVISHED HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS,
PERHAPS BILLIONS, OF HIS PETRODOLLARS IN ORDER TO LAY
THE BASIS FOR A NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM. // END OPT //
THE IRAQI PRECEDENT, HOWEVER, IS NOT ALTOGETHER
ENCOURAGING. FIRST, IT SHOWS THAT A COUNTRY THAT HAS
DETERMINATION, A STRONG LEADER AND A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF
MONEY, CAN LAUNCH A PROGRAM TO ACQUIRE NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
SECOND, IT DEMONSTRATES THAT SUCH A COUNTRY CAN CONCEAL
ITS NUCLEAR WEAPONS-MAKING PROGRAM FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, FOR THAT, IN FACT, IS WHAT IRAQ
DID.
//END ACT//
ABOUT TWO-THOUSAND STRATEGIC NUCLEAR MISSILES HAVE BEEN MOVED TO
RUSSIA OUT OF BELORUS, KAZAKHSTAN AND UKRAINE, WHICH ARE NOW FREE
OF SUCH WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. // OPT // THE COSTS
INVOLVED WERE COVERED LARGELY BY THE U-S CONGRESS, UNDER THE
COMPREHENSIVE THREAT REDUCTION ACT KNOWN COMMONLY AS THE
NUNN-LUGAR BILL, AFTER THE TWO SENATORS WHO SPONSORED IT. MORE
THAN TWO BILLION DOLLARS HAVE SO FAR BEEN SPENT BY THE U-S TO
HELP THESE FORMER SOVIET REPUBLICS, AS WELL AS RUSSIA, REDUCE THE
THREAT THOSE WEAPONS PRESENTED. // END OPT //
BUT RUSSIA -- IN ADDITION TO ITS REMAINING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR
MISSILES -- HAS AN ESTIMATED 30-THOUSAND TACTICAL NUCLEAR
WEAPONS, SOME SMALL ENOUGH TO BE PUT IN THE TRUNK OF AN
AUTOMOBILE. THESE PRESENT A GREAT THREAT OF PROLIFERATION, SINCE
THEY COULD FAIRLY EASILY BE LOST, SOLD, OR STOLEN.
// OPT // THE SITUATION FACING US TODAY, FORMER SENATOR SAM NUNN
SAYS, PRESENTS A STARK CONTRAST TO THE PERIOD OF THE COLD WAR.
// OPT // NUNN ACT //
THIS NATION IS SAFER NOW FROM ANY KIND OF MAJOR WAR THAN
WE HAVE BEEN IN FIFTY YEARS. BUT WE HAVE MOVED TO A
PERIOD WHERE WE HAVE A LOT LOWER STABILITY. WE SEE THAT
WITH ETHNIC BREAK-OUTS, WE SEE THAT WITH ALL SORTS OF
RELIGIOUS CONFLICT IN THE WORLD. WE NO LONGER HAVE THE
RESTRAINING INFLUENCE OF TWO SUPERPOWERS TRYING TO
RESTRAIN THEIR CLIENTS TO PREVENT THAT ESCALATION. WE
ARE IN A PERIOD OF TERRORISM.
// END ACT // END OPT //
IN SHORT, EXPERTS ON NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARE NOT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT
THE FUTURE. PROFESSOR MICHAEL MANDELBAUM'S POSITION IS
UNAMBIGUOUS.
// 3RD MANDELBAUM ACT //
I THINK THAT ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT EVENTS IN WORLD
HISTORY IS LIKELY TO BE THE NEXT NUCLEAR WAR. THIS MAY
TURN OUT TO BE THE MOST IMPORTANT, DEFINING EVENT OF THE
POST-COLD WAR ERA, AND ITS CONSEQUENCES -- IF AND WHEN
THE NEXT NUCLEAR WAR DOES OCCUR -- ARE AWFULLY DIFFICULT
TO FORESEE.
// END ACT //
THIRTY-FIVE YEARS AGO, A NUCLEAR WAR WAS AVOIDED, MOST
SPECIALISTS AGREE, DUE TO THE CAUTIOUS AND ADROIT POLICY ADOPTED
BY PRESIDENT JOHN KENNEDY. TODAY, THE POSSIBILITY OF A NUCLEAR
WAR BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND RUSSIA SEEMS REMOTE, IF NOT
QUITE IMPOSSIBLE. BUT THE DANGERS OF NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION HAVE
CLEARLY INCREASED. FEW WOULD DENY THAT NUCLEAR PERILS ARE MANY
AND THAT THE WORLD REMAINS A VERY DANGEROUS PLACE. (SIGNED)
NEB/FR/WFR/MMK
28-Oct-97 12:27 PM EST (1727 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
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