News


ACCESSION NUMBER:374895
FILE ID:LEF210
DATE:01/17/95
TITLE:INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC ON NORTH KOREA (01/17/95)
TEXT:*95011710.PFL
*LEF210   01/17/95
INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC ON NORTH KOREA
TR95011710 (Also discuss Russia, other issues at hearing) +lf (800)
By Louise Fenner
USIA Staff Writer
WASHINGTON -- North Korea, Russia and the profileration of weapons of mass
destruction remain the three major areas of concern to the U.S. defense
intelligence community, but some cautious hope exists for progress in
stablizing the Korean peninsula, says the head of the Defense Intelligence
Agency (DIA).
1
Lt. Gen. James R. Clapper Jr. told the Senate Armed Services Committee Jan.
17 that the recent U.S.-North Korean nuclear framework agreement, coupled
with the leadership transition that occurred when longtime President Kim
Il-Sung died last July and was succeeded by his son Kim Jong-Il, offers
"the greatest promise of a significantly more stable Korean Peninsula than
I have seen in the last 10 years."

Clapper said he believes North Korea's leadership "now recognizes its
chances for regime survival are better served by strategies emphasizing
economic improvement and political-economic accommodation rather than those
stressing implacable confrontation with the outside world."

However, Clapper tempered his optimism by stressing that "thus far, we see
no significant changes in North Korea's conventional military posture," and
that "the nuclear framework accord has done nothing to diminish the North's
current capabilities to conduct a war against the south."  He concluded
that North Korea itself "will remain a potentially very unstable place for
the next few years."

Adm. William O. Studemen, the acting director of the Central Intelligence
Agency who joined Clapper in briefing the committee on worldwide threats to
U.S. security, noted in his prepared statement that North Korea "has taken
small steps to open the economy to the outside world, but has show no
indication to reduce military spending."

He also noted out that North Korea "continues to move forward with its
ballistic missile program ... working on new, longer range developmental
ballistic missiles...."

In response to a question, Studeman said "we are detecting little signs that
the North Koreans would much rather move up the path toward normalization
than confrontation," although he added that "they are prepared for the
confrontation, and they have put a lot of energy into expanding their
military capability."

Clapper said that in DIA's view, North Korea remains one of the top security
concerns for the United States, along with political-military developments
in      Russia and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

Addressing the crisis in Russia's breakaway Chechnya republic, Clapper
predicted that it was "just a question of time" before the Chechen capital
of Grozny fell to the "sheer weight of force and the amount of fire power
that the Russians are going to bring to bear...."

But he added that guerrilla forces would retreat to the mountains, leaving
"the Russians ... in for a long seige."

Calling the crisis "a tragedy and a debacle" that threatens Russia's
progress toward democracy and a market economy, ranking minority member Sam
Nunn (D-Ga.) asked if the deterioration in its conventional capability
might move the Russian military toward increased reliance on nuclear
weapons.

"Psychologically it will," Clapper said. "I think it will place greater
emphasis on the Russian military's clinging to their nuclear forces even
more so as a psychological evidence of their continued claim to major power
status as their conventional forces have obviously declined."

Studeman noted that the demise of the Soviet Union "and the lack of adequate
controls of nuclear materials in that region" raises the danger that
hostile states could "short-circuit" the development cycle for nuclear
weapons.  He also expressed concern about advanced conventional weapons
that can be used to deliver weapons of mass destruction "and which are
available in unprecedented quantities on the world market."

1Approximately two dozen countries have ongoing programs to develop or
acquire weapons of mass destruction," Clapper noted.  "While it is possible
to slow the proliferation of these weapons, a country that is intent on
gaining such a capability will eventually do so."

Considering the number of countries and groups that have the potential to
acquire this capability, he said the likelihood of using a nuclear weapon
-- "letting the genie out of the bottle -- could happen within 10 years."

Clapper stressed that U.S. security interests lie in recognizing that the
United States is part of a world where "flash-point warfare ... could
ignite virtually anywhere and with little notice."

While the intelligence agencies are cutting personnel and budgets, in
keeping with the Clinton administration's move to reduce the size of
government, Clapper said, "it is incumbent on all of us ... to make every
reasonable attempt to minimize the risk inherent in still deeper cuts."

The two intelligence directors spoke in an open hearing, which was followed
by a session closed to the public.

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