News



DATE=6/2/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40577
TITLE=U-S POLICY TOWARD THE TWO KOREAS
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:   ABOUT TO MAKE AN OFFICIAL VISIT TO WASHINGTON,  SOUTH 
KOREAN PRESIDENT KIM DAE JUNG HAS URGED LIFTING THE ECONOMIC 
SANCTIONS ON NORTH KOREA AS PART OF HIS POLICY OF ENGAGEMENT WITH
THE LONG ISOLATED COMMUNIST REGIME. THE UNITED STATES HAS ADOPTED
A WAIT-AND-SEE ATTITUDE TOWARD THE STILL BELLIGERANT NORTH. 
SPEAKING BEFORE "THE KOREA SOCIETY" IN WASHINGTON, U-S SENATOR 
MAX BAUCUS, WHO HAS MADE THE KOREAS A SPECIAL CONCERN, EXPLAINED 
U-S POLICY AS HE SEES IT.  V-O-A'S ED WARNER REPORTS. 

TEXT:   ONE THING CAN BE PREDICTED FOR THE KOREAN PENINSULA, SAID
U-S SENATOR MAX BAUCUS. THERE WILL BE CRUCIAL CHANGE OVER THE 
NEXT SEVERAL YEARS. THE QUESTION IS WILL IT BE PEACEFUL OR 
EXPLOSIVE?  ADDRESSING THE KOREA SOCIETY IN WASHINGTON, HE SAID 
HE IS NOT SURE.  NORTH KOREA COULD GO IN ANY NUMBER OF 
DIRECTIONS:

                                // BAUCUS ACT //

         IF NORTH KOREA CAN NO LONGER FEED ITS PEOPLE OR RUN ITS 
         FACTORIES, IT WILL SOON BE UNABLE TO RUN AN ARMY. AS 
         THAT POINT APPROACHES, NORTHERN LEADERS COULD GAMBLE ON 
         WAR. THE NORTH KOREAN STATE COULD ALSO END IN A SUDDEN 
         EXPLOSION, CAUSING AN INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL CRISIS. OR
         NORTH KOREA COULD LOOK HARD AT ITSELF AND RECOGNIZE THAT
         ITS SYSTEM DOES NOT WORK.

                                   // END ACT //

IN THAT CASE, SAID SENATOR BAUCUS, IT COULD ADOPT THE REFORMS 
CHINA BEGAN TO FOLLOW IN THE 1970'S. IT COULD SUBSTANTIALLY 
REDUCE MILITARY SPENDING FROM THE PRESENT TWENTY-FIVE PERCENT OF 
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (G-D-P). IT COULD WELCOME OUTSIDE 
INVESTMENT, PARTICULARLY FROM THE NOW MORE ACCOMMODATING SOUTH. 
THE TWO KOREAS COULD THEN COEXIST AND IN TIME REUNITE.  

BUT SENATOR BAUCUS SAID HE HAS HIS DOUBTS ABOUT THIS OPTIMISTIC 
SCENARIO. IT WOULD EXPOSE NORTH KOREA WITH ALL ITS SHORTCOMINGS 
TO THE OUTSIDE WORLD. ITS LEADERS MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO FACE THE 
HUMILIATION. 

SO HE SAID THE UNITED STATES MUST MAINTAIN ITS COMMITMENT TO A 
STRONG AND PROSPEROUS SOUTH KOREA, WHERE 37 THOUSAND U-S TROOPS 
ARE STILL STATIONED. THAT MEANS CONTINUING FOUR MAJOR   POLICIES:

                                // BAUCUS ACT //

         FIRST, DETER A NORTH KOREAN ATTACK ON THE SOUTH. SECOND,
         PREVENT NUCLEAR WEAPONS FROM ENTERING THE PENINSULA. 
         THIRD, HELP ENSURE THAT SOUTH KOREA IS PROSPEROUS; THUS 
         POLITICALLY STRONG AND STABLE. AND FOURTH, PREVENT 
         DEVELOPMENTS IN KOREA FROM BRINGING US INTO A 
         CONFRONTATION WITH CHINA OR JAPAN OR RUSSIA - THOUGH 
         THAT IS HARDER TO IMAGINE - THAT NEITHER WE NOR THE 
         CHINESE WANT. 

                                  // END ACT //

SENATOR BAUCUS SAID A POSSIBLE CONFLICT WITH CHINA, THOUGH 
REMOTE, IS WORRISOME. IT COULD HAPPEN IF NORTH KOREA SUDDDENLY 
COLLAPSES, AND BOTH THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA INTERVENE TO 
PREVENT A CIVIL WAR OR SIMPLY TO PROVIDE HUMANITARIAN RELIEF. 
EVEN IF THE KOREAS SUCCESSFULLY REUNITE, SAID THE SENATOR, U-S 
FORCES MIGHT REMAIN TO ASSURE STABILITY IN THE REGION. BUT THAT 
OF COURSE, WOULD BE UP TO THE KOREANS.   

PAUL CHAMBERLIN, VICE PRESIDENT OF INTERNATIONAL TECHNOLOGY AND 
TRADE ASSOCIATES IN WASHINGTON, AGREES A CONTINUED U-S MIITARY 
PRESENCE WOULD BE A KEY ISSUE IN A REUNITED KOREA: 

                             // CHAMBERLIN ACT //

         WHAT WILL BE THE JUSTIFICATION THAT WILL PERSUADE 
         KOREANS TO WANT TO MAINTAIN A FOREIGN MILITARY PRESENCE 
         ON THEIR SOIL? HOW MUCH ARE THEY WILLING TO PAY TO 
         SUPPORT IT? AND WITHIN THE UNITED STATES, WHAT WOUILD BE
         THE AMERICAN SUPPORT FOR THE DEPLOYMENT OF FORCES ON 
         MAINLAND ASIA? FROM A FOREIGN POLICY STANDPOINT, ONE CAN
         UNDERSTAND THE BENEFITS OF MAINTAINING A MILITARY 
         PRESENCE THERE IF ONLY TO SYMBOLIZE AMERICAN COMMITMENT 
         TO THE REGION. 

                                 // END ACT //

MR. CHAMBERLIN, WHO SERVED AS A U-S ARMY POLITICAL-MILITARY  
ANALYST IN SOUTH KOREA, SAYS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE KIND OF KOREA 
THAT EMERGES FROM COMBINING TWO SUCH RADICALLY DIFFERENT PARTS.  
(SIGNED)



NEB/PT



02-Jun-98 7:24 PM EDT (2324 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.