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DATE=9/4/98 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-41304 TITLE=KOREA MISSILE / NUKE ACCORD BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN DATELINE=WASHINGTON CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: NORTH KOREA'S MISSILE TEST OVER JAPANESE TERRITORY MAY HAVE PUT IN JEOPARDY THE 1994 ACCORD THAT HALTED PYONGYANG'S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM. AMERICAN ANALYSTS SAY THERE ARE NOW LIMITED POLICY OPTIONS FACING THE UNITED STATES, AS V-O-A'S STEPHANIE MANN REPORTS. TEXT: UNDER THE 1994 ACCORD BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND PYONGYANG, NORTH KOREA AGREED TO STOP ITS SUSPECTED NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM AND DISMANTLE ITS EXISTING NUCLEAR FACILITIES. IN EXCHANGE, THE UNITED STATES AND OTHER MEMBERS OF AN INTERNATIONAL CONSORTIUM ARE HELPING NORTH KOREA BUILD TWO LESS CONTROVERSIAL NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS AND PROVIDE FUEL OIL UNTIL THE NEW PLANTS ARE OPERATIONAL. BEFORE THE MISSILE WAS FIRED LAST MONDAY, U-S POLICYMAKERS ALREADY WERE CONCERNED ABOUT INTELLIGENCE REPORTS THAT NORTH KOREA MAY BE BUILDING A NEW SECRET NUCLEAR WEAPONS COMPLEX. ROBERT MANNING, THE DIRECTOR OF ASIAN STUDIES AT THE COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS AND A FORMER STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL, SAYS THOSE REVELATIONS CAME AT A SENSITIVE TIME. HE NOTES THE U-S ADMINISTRATION WAS TRYING TO GET CONGRESS TO APPROVE EXTRA FUNDING FOR FOOD AID AND FOR THE PROMISED DELIVERIES OF FUEL OIL TO NORTH KOREA. THEN CAME THE MISSILE TEST, WHICH MR. MANNING SAYS IS NOT LIKELY TO ENCOURAGE CONGRESS TO APPROVE ADDITIONAL FUNDS. // MANNING ACT ONE // THIS IS A COUNTRY WHO HAS BECOME OUR SECOND OR THIRD LARGEST AID RECIPIENT IN ASIA. HERE WE ARE FEEDING THIS FAILED STATE THAT IS STARVING HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF ITS OWN PEOPLE -- NOBODY KNOWS THE FIGURES. AND WHAT DO THEY SPEND THEIR TIME DOING? POSSIBLY WEAPONIZING ON ACCOUNT OF OUR PLUTONIUM AND CERTAINLY BUILDING NEW MULTI-STAGE MISSILES. HOW DO YOU JUSTIFY THAT? // END ACT // MR. MANNING SAYS IF THE CONSTRUCTION SITES UNDER QUESTION CAN BE INSPECTED AND IT TURNS OUT THEY ARE NOT NUCLEAR SITES, THE NUCLEAR ACCORD CAN GET BACK ON TRACK. HOWEVER, IF EVIDENCE PROVES NORTH KOREA IS RESUMING ITS NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM, HE SAYS THAT, COMBINED WITH THE NORTH'S MISSILE CAPABILITY, LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WHAT HE CALLS A CHILLING SPECTER OF NUCLEAR BLACKMAIL. // OPT // NORTH KOREA DISMISSES INTERNATIONAL CONCERN ABOUT THE MISSILE FIRING, SAYING THE MISSILE WAS FIRED TO LAUNCH A SATELLITE INTO ORBIT. // END OPT // MR. MANNING SAYS THE NORTH MAY HAVE DECIDED TO LAUNCH THE MISSILE BECAUSE THE UNITED STATES AND OTHER MEMBERS OF THE CONSORTIUM -- SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN -- HAVE RECENTLY FALLEN BEHIND ON FUEL OIL SHIPMENTS AND CONSTRUCTION OF THE NEW POWER PLANTS. // MANNING ACT TWO // IN A WAY, THE NORTH KOREANS HAVE A POINT. AND THIS IS THE WORST MISTAKE YOU CAN MAKE, IN MY VIEW, IN DEALING WITH NORTH KOREA -- GIVING THEM AN EXCUSE. // END ACT // MOREOVER, MR. MANNNING SAYS, NORTH KOREA MAY HAVE FELT THE UNITED STATES WAS NOT MOVING FAST ENOUGH WITH MEASURES TO HELP NORTH KOREA'S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. /// OPT /// KOREA SPECIALIST DAVID STEINBERG AGREES. // STEINBERG ACT ONE // I THINK THE NORTH KOREANS EXPECTED, WHEN WE REACHED AGREEMENT, TO SEE THE (ECONOMIC) SANCTIONS DROPPED BY THE U-S AND SEE SOME INVESTMENT COMING IN, TO SEE THE OPENING OF AN EMBASSY IN PYONGYANG AND AN OFFICE IN WASHINGTON, HERE, FOR THE NORTH KOREANS. AND NONE OF THOSE HAVE HAPPENED. AND I THINK THEY ARE QUITE FRUSTRATED. // END ACT // /// END OPT /// THE UNITED STATES AND NORTH KOREA HAVE BEEN MEETING IN NEW YORK SINCE LAST MONTH. THE U-S SIDE WANTS THE NORTH TO HALT ITS MISSILE EXPORTS AND ALLOW INSPECTION OF THE NEW CONSTRUCTION SITES. NORTH KOREA WANTS THE UNITED STATES TO MAKE CASH PAYMENTS IN EXCHANGE FOR AN END TO MISSILE EXPORTS. ROBERT MANNING SAYS IF THE NEW CONSTRUCTION SITES ARE NOT PART OF A NUCLEAR PROGRAM, THE 1994 ACCORD CAN BE RESUMED. BUT IF IT TURNS OUT NORTH KOREA IS EMBARKED ON A NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM, HE SAYS THE UNITED STATES MAY HAVE TO CONCLUDE THAT NORTH KOREA'S MILITARY HAS ITS OWN AGENDA AND IT MAY NOT BE WORTH NEGOTIATING WITH PYONGYANG. DAVID STEINBERG, DIRECTOR OF ASIAN STUDIES AT GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY, SAYS THE U-S POLICY OPTIONS ARE BECOMING MORE LIMITED. // STEINBERG ACT TWO // ANYTHING THAT WE DO NOW IS SEEN AS A REWARD FOR WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN ENGAGED IN, WHICH IS DEMONSTRATING TO THE OUTSIDE WORLD ... THAT THEY HAVE NEW TECHNOLOGY AND THAT AS A BARGAINING CHIP THE PRICE HAS GONE UP. IN OTHER WORDS, THEY CAN SELL THE MISSILE TECHNOLOGY TO OTHER COUNTRIES, AS THEY HAVE DONE IN THE PAST. AND IT MEANS IT BECOMES MORE URGENT FOR THE UNITED STATES TO DEAL WITH THEM. // END ACT // PROFESSOR STEINBERG SAYS IF NORTH KOREA LAUNCHED ITS MISSILE TO TRY TO PRESS THE UNITED STATES TO BE MORE FORTHCOMING IN NEGOTIATIONS, IT HAS MISCALCULATED BADLY. HE SAYS NORTH KOREA DOES NOT UNDERSTAND THE U-S PROCESS AND THE ROLE THAT CONGRESS PLAYS IN APPROVING INTERNATIONAL POLICY. (SIGNED) NEB/SMN/GE 04-Sep-98 10:04 AM EDT (1404 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .