News

DATE=09/19/98 TYPE=ON THE LINE NUMBER=1-00671 TITLE=DEALING WITH NORTH KOREA EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY - 619-0037 CONTENT= THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE ANNCR: ON THE LINE -- A DISCUSSION OF UNITED STATES POLICIES AND CONTEMPORARY ISSUES. THIS WEEK, "DEALING WITH NORTH KOREA." HERE IS YOUR HOST, ROBERT REILLY. HOST: HELLO AND WELCOME TO ON THE LINE. NORTH KOREA, ONE OF THE LAST TOTALITARIAN COMMUNIST REGIMES IN THE WORLD, RECENTLY CELEBRATED ITS FIFTIETH ANNIVERSARY BY LAUNCHING A THREE-STAGE MISSILE OVER JAPAN AND INTO THE PACIFIC. THE PURPORTED PURPOSE OF THE LAUNCH WAS TO PUT INTO ORBIT A SATELLITE TO BROADCAST "IMMORTAL REVOLUTIONARY HYMNS" IN HONOR OF ITS PARAMOUNT RULER, KIM JONG IL, AND HIS FATHER KIM IL SUNG, WHO DIED IN 1994. IN 1994, THE U.S NEGOTIATED AN ACCORD WITH NORTH KOREA TO HALT ITS NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM. RECENT ACTIVITIES AT A SUSPECTED NEW NUCLEAR WEAPONS PLANT HAVE RAISED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE NORTH KOREA'S ADHERENCE TO THAT ACCORD. JOINING ME TODAY TO DISCUSS THE RECENT ACTIONS OF NORTH KOREA ARE TWO EXPERTS. JAMES LILLEY IS DIRECTOR OF ASIAN STUDIES AT THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE, AND A FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO CHINA AND THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH KOREA. AND DAVID BROWN, A FORMER U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL, IS SENIOR ASSOCIATE WITH THE ASIA PACIFIC POLICY CENTER. GENTLEMEN, WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM. AMBASSADOR LILLEY, LET ME BEGIN WITH YOUR INTERPRETATION OF RECENT EVENTS IN NORTH KOREA, PARTICULARLY THE PROVOCATIVE LAUNCH OF THIS MISSILE, WHICH THEY DIDN'T EVEN BOTHER TO GIVE AN EXPLANATION FOR TILL FIVE DAYS AFTER IT HAPPENED. LILLEY: NORTH KOREA IS A VERY CUNNING COUNTRY WITH A VERY POOR HAND, IN TERMS OF ITS ECONOMIC SITUATION, BUT A VERY POWERFUL MILITARY CARD TO PLAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THEY HAVE DEVELOPED THE HABIT OF USING MILITARY THREATS AND INTIMIDATION IN ORDER TO GET CONCESSIONS FROM US. THIS PARTICULAR SHOT WAS TO DEMONSTRATE TO VARIOUS COUNTRIES THAT ARE CONTESTING THEM THAT THEY HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO HIT A NUMBER OF ISLANDS IF THEY SHOULD CHOOSE AND ALSO, OF COURSE, TO CELEBRATE KIM JONG IL'S ASCENSION TO POWER AS HEAD OF THE NATIONAL DEFENSE COMMISSION. SO I THINK THERE ARE A MULTIPLE OF OBJECTIVES. AND RIGHT NOW, I THINK THEY'RE BARGAINING WITH US VERY HARD ON WHAT WE WILL DO TO CURB THEIR MISSILE PROLIFERATION AND THEIR MISSILE DEVELOPMENTS, AND ALSO TO GAIN ACCESS TO THEIR ALLEGED SECRET UNDERGROUND NUCLEAR WEAPONS FACILITY. HOST: MR. BROWN, WHAT'S YOUR READING OF THAT EVENT? BROWN: I THINK I'M MUCH IN AGREEMENT WITH JIM. THIS HAD BOTH MESSAGES FOR THE OUTSIDE WORLD, WHICH ARE DISTURBING AND THREATENING, AND IT WAS PART OF THE CELEBRATION OF THE FIFTIETH ANNIVERSARY. AND IN A WAY IT WAS THE KOREAN PEOPLE'S ARMY'S PRESENT TO KIM JONG IL. KIM FORMALLY ELEVATED THEM TO THE MOST IMPORTANT INSTITUTION IN SOCIETY BY SAYING THAT THE NATIONAL DEFENSE COMMISSION IS THE HIGHEST ORGAN OF STATE POWER. AND HE MADE HIMSELF THE CHAIRMAN OF THAT. AND IN A WAY, THE MILITARY WAS SAYING, IN A SOCIETY WHICH IS COMPLETELY FAILING IN EVERY OTHER WAY, WE'RE THE ONE INSTITUTION THAT CAN PRODUCE SOMETHING FOR YOU. AND THAT'S A VERY TROUBLING MIXTURE IN MY MIND. HOST: AMBASSADOR LILLEY, WHAT ABOUT THE LAUNCH ITSELF. WAS THIS ANOTHER SHOCK TO THE U.S. AND WEST EUROPEAN INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY? RECENTLY, THERE WAS UPSET OVER INDIAN NUCLEAR TESTS, PAKISTAN, AND NOW A MISSILE THAT WE WEREN'T SURE NORTH KOREA EVEN HAD. LILLEY: WE KNEW THEY HAD THE NO DONG AND THE TAEPO DONG THIS WAS A TAEPO DONG. I'M NOT SURE IF IT WAS A ONE OR A TWO. IT WAS A THREE-STAGE MISSILE WHICH WAS, I THINK, A LITTLE BEYOND OUR EXPECTATIONS. I THINK WE KNEW SLIGHTLY IN ADVANCE THAT THEY WERE GOING TO MAKE THE SHOT. AND WE NOTIFIED THE JAPANESE. BUT I THINK, AGAIN, IT CAUGHT US SOMEWHAT BY SURPRISE, THE SCOPE OF WHAT THEY COULD DO. AND I GATHER RIGHT NOW, BECAUSE THEY BEGAN TO RECOVER SOME OF THE DEBRIS, IT WENT LONGER THAN WE THOUGHT. IT WAS INTO THE THREE-THOUSAND-MILE RANGE, WHICH IS PRETTY FORMIDABLE. HOST: AND EVEN THOUGH THEY DIDN'T BOTHER TO SAY TILL FIVE DAYS AFTER THE LAUNCH THAT THERE WAS A SATELLITE ON IT, APPARENTLY THERE WAS A FAILED ATTEMPT. LILLEY: IT LOOKS LIKE A FAILED ATTEMPT, BECAUSE NOBODY PICKED UP THE SIGNALS. I THINK IT WAS AT TWENTY SEVEN MEGAHERTZ. THEY HAD A SIGNAL ON IT. AND NOBODY PICKED IT UP. AND WE SHOULD HAVE PICKED IT UP. AND WE HAD THE ABILITY TO SPOT A SATELLITE IN ORBIT. THEY SAID A HUNDRED THIRTY SIX MILES ABOVE THE EARTH IN ORBIT. WE LOOKED AROUND AND WE COULDN'T FIND ANYTHING, SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT FAILED. HOST: SO IF A SATELLITE OR RATHER A MISSILE LAUNCH OF THAT SIGNIFICANCE HAD NO OVERT PURPOSE OTHER THAN TO PLAY SOME REVOLUTIONARY TUNES IN OUTER SPACE, WE HAVE TO SAY IT HAD A POLITICAL PURPOSE. AND CERTAINLY THE POLITICAL IMPACT IT HAD, PERHAPS, MR. BROWN, WAS GREATEST ON JAPAN. IS THAT FAIR TO SAY? BROWN: I THINK THAT'S VERY CLEAR, IN PART BECAUSE THE JAPANESE ARE STILL SOMEWHAT NAIVE IN THEIR APPROACH TO DEALING WITH NORTH KOREA, BUT ALSO BECAUSE IT WAS A TEST RIGHT OVER THEIR TERRITORY. AND WHAT IT CLEARLY CONVEYS IS THAT NOT JUST PERHAPS SOME FRINGE AREAS OF JAPAN ARE NOW SUBJECT TO THREAT BY A MISSILE CAPABILITY FROM NORTH KOREA, BUT THE WHOLE OF THE JAPANESE ISLANDS. IT'S ALSO INTERESTING, OF COURSE, THAT THE SAME CAPABILITY COVERS ALMOST ALL OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF CHINA. AND CHINA'S REACTION HAS BEEN REMARKABLY RESTRAINED AND SUBDUED TO THIS POINT. HOST: AND ALSO PARTS OF THE UNITED STATES? BROWN: POTENTIALLY EVEN TO THE UNITED STATES. LILLEY: I'D LIKE TO ADD SOMETHING ON THAT. ONE OF THE THINGS THAT CHINA HAS PUSHED VERY HARD ON IS TO BE AGAINST THEATER MISSILE DEFENSE. WITH SOUTH KOREA, WITH JAPAN, WITH TAIWAN, THEY'VE TAKEN A VERY TOUGH POSITION ON THIS. WITH THE LAUNCHING OF THIS NORTH KOREAN MISSILE, THE WHOLE ARGUMENT ON THEATER MISSILE DEFENSE HAS BUBBLED UP IN JAPAN AGAIN. AND THE SOUTH KOREANS HAVE TO LOOK AT IT AGAIN. AND EVEN TAIWAN IS CONCERNED BECAUSE THE NORTH KOREANS HAVE THROWN A MONKEY WRENCH INTO CHINESE PLANS TO BLOCK T-M-D. THIS ISN'T THE FIRST TIME THEY DID IT. THE FIRST TIME WAS ON JUNE 25TH, 1950, WHEN THEY INVADED SOUTH KOREA AND KNOCKED OFF CHINESE PLANS TO TAKE TAIWAN. AND AMERICANS INTERVENED. BUT AGAIN, THE NORTH KOREANS DO THEIR OWN THING REGARDLESS OF WHAT THEIR NEIGHBORING POWERS CARE ABOUT. HOST: WHAT IS THEIR OWN THING? YOU'RE LOOKING AT A NATION IN WHICH HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE ARE STARVING A YEAR. THEY'RE SUPPOSEDLY DEDICATING A FIFTEEN-THOUSAND-MAN FORCE TO THE CONSTRUCTION OF THIS UNDERGROUND SUSPECTED NUCLEAR PROCESSING SITE AND THEY'RE LAUNCHING MISSILES. BROWN: CLEARLY, THE NORTH KOREAN LEADERSHIP THINKS IT CAN HAVE ITS CAKE AND EAT IT TOO, THAT THEY CAN THREATEN THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WITH WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS AND, AT THE SAME TIME, HAVE THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THEM WITH FOOD AID AND WITH FUEL. THIS IS A MESSAGE WHICH, I THINK, THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY NEEDS TO GET VERY CLEARLY ACROSS TO THE NORTH KOREANS, THAT THAT'S NOT A GAME THAT'S GOING TO WORK. YOU HAVE TO ALSO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE FACT THAT THE NORTH KOREANS PROBABLY DON'T UNDERSTAND VERY WELL THE IMPACT OF THEIR OWN ACTIONS ON THE INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT THAT THEY'RE LIVING IN, PARTICULARLY THIS POINT THAT JIM MENTIONED ABOUT HOW A REACTION IN JAPAN OF FEELING THREATENED IS GOING TO LEAD TO CLOSER DEFENSE COOPERATION WITH THE UNITED STATES, WHICH IS SOMETHING THE CHINESE HAVE BEEN TRYING TO PERSUADE JAPAN AND THE UNITED STATES NOT TO DO. THE CHINESE WERE NOT INFORMED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHOT AS THE NORTH KOREANS HAVE NOT BEEN INFORMING THE CHINESE OF MOST OF THE OTHER THINGS THEY HAVE DONE WHICH WERE REPREHENSIBLE, SUCH AS SUBMARINE OPERATIONS OFF THE SOUTH KOREAN COAST. AND ONE CAN ONLY HOPE THAT IN DUE COURSE THAT CHINESE CONCERN ABOUT THIS TYPE OF NORTH KOREAN BEHAVIOR WILL WORK TO THE ADVANTAGE OF THE UNITED STATES. HOST: THE JAPANESE MOST IMMEDIATELY, AMBASSADOR LILLEY, HAVE SUSPENDED AID TO NORTH KOREA, HAVE THEY NOT? LILLEY: YES, THEY'VE TAKEN A MUCH TOUGHER APPROACH THAN WE DID. THEY CANCELED THE CHARTERED FLIGHTS. THEY SAID THEY WOULD REEXAMINE CONTRIBUTING THEIR ONE BILLION DOLLARS TO THE LIGHT WATER REACTORS. THEY CANCELED THEIR TALKS ON NORMALIZATION. THEY HIT VERY HARD. BUT I'D LIKE TO FOLLOW UP ON SOMETHING THAT DAVID SAID. THE LOGIC OF THE AMERICAN POSITION HAS TO BE LOOKED AT VERY CLOSELY. IF YOU, IN FACT, GIVE, UNCONDITIONALLY, FOOD AID TO NORTH KOREA FOR STARVING CHILDREN -- AND NOBODY'S AGAINST FEEDING STARVING CHILDREN -- BUT THESE PEOPLE ARE TAKING THEIR MONEY AND HAVING THESE GREAT OCCASIONS, THESE OBSCENE MONUMENTS THEY BUILD. THEY PUT THIRTY PERCENT OF THEIR G-N-P INTO THEIR MILITARY. THEY FIRE THESE SHOTS. THEY SELL ADVANCED MISSILES TO ENEMIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST OF OURS. IT'S APPALLING THAT WE PUT MONEY INTO THIS SYSTEM, SO THEY CAN TAKE THEIR MONEY AND PUT IT INTO THE MILITARY. HOST: BECAUSE FOOD IS FUNGIBLE? LILLEY: AND THE LOGIC OF THIS IS QUESTIONABLE. BECAUSE WE ARE PROBABLY GOING TO GIVE THEM THESE THREE HUNDRED THOUSAND TONS [OF FOOD] AND THEY SAY THAT THEY MIGHT GIVE US ACCESS TO THE UNDERGROUND FACILITY. HOST: IN FACT, I THINK WE'VE JUST INCREASED OUR PROMISE OF SO MANY HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF METRIC TONS. IS THAT THE RIGHT RESPONSE, MR. BROWN? BROWN: I THINK WE'RE DEALING WITH A DANGEROUS ADVERSARY HERE. THAT'S INCREASINGLY CLEAR, EVEN TO THOSE PEOPLE WHO WERE, I THINK, HOPEFUL THAT NORTH KOREA MIGHT BE CHANGING. BUT, IN DEALING WITH A DANGEROUS ADVERSARY, IT IS NOT WISE TO PAINT THEM INTO A CORNER COMPLETELY. WE'VE GOT TO LEAVE THE NORTH KOREAN REGIME A WAY OUT OF CONFRONTATION WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD. AND REASONABLE HUMANITARIAN CONCERN FOR THEIR PEOPLE, ADEQUATELY MONITORED, SEEMS TO ME TO BE A SENSIBLE THING FOR THE UNITED STATES TO CONTINUE TO DO EVEN WHEN WE HAVE VERY FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEMS WITH OTHER ASPECTS OF THEIR BEHAVIOR. HOST: AMBASSADOR LILLEY, YOU MENTIONED ONE OF THE REAL SORE POINTS WITH NORTH KOREA. SUPPOSEDLY, THERE ARE TALKS BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND NORTH KOREA ABOUT TO TAKE PLACE ON THIS ISSUE, AND THAT IS THEIR PROLIFERATION OF MISSILES TO PLACES LIKE PAKISTAN, IRAN AND SYRIA. HOW SERIOUS A THREAT IS NORTH KOREA IN THIS PROLIFERATION PROBLEM, AND IS ANYTHING EFFECTIVE BEING DONE ABOUT IT? LILLEY: OF COURSE, WHAT THEY'VE SAID -- AND THEY'VE GOTTEN INTO THIS VERY BAD HABIT OF ONE MILLION TONS OF FOOD FOR FOUR PARTY TALKS, THREE HUNDRED THOUSAND TONS FOR ACCESS TO OUR SUPPOSED NUCLEAR FACILITIES -- NOW THEY'RE SAYING FIVE HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS TO BUY US OFF NOT TO EXPORT MISSILES TO COUNTRIES. THE CLEAREST CASE WE HAVE OF THEIR INVOLVEMENT IS IN THE GHAURI MISSILE IN PAKISTAN, WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE NO DONG MISSILE. AND WE'VE BEEN TRYING TO STOP THAT FOR YEARS. AND WE STOPPED IT FOR A WHILE -- ACTUALLY WHEN I WAS AT DEFENSE. RECENTLY, THEY'VE GONE AHEAD AND DONE IT. WE HAVE STRONG EVIDENCE THAT THEY'VE SHIPPED INTO SYRIA, IRAN, POSSIBLY LIBYA. HOST: THIS IS REALLY THEIR ONLY EXPORTABLE COMMODITY IN NORTH KOREA. LILLEY: SCUDS, NO DONG MISSILES, THIS IS WHAT THEY EXPORT. I THINK THE OUT THAT I WOULD SUGGEST, THAT DAVID MENTIONED, IS THE BEST OUT FOR THEM, NORTH-SOUTH DIALOGUE WITH THEIR BROTHERS IN THE SOUTH. KIM DAE JUNG HAS OFFERED A SENSIBLE PROGRAM, REACHING OUT TO THEM. AND THE ONE GOOD NEWS IS, THIS MAN YON HYONG MUK IS NOW ON THE DEFENSE COMMISSION. AND HE WAS THE PREMIER AT THE TIME OF THE NORTH-SOUTH TALKS IN 1991. NOW, IF IN FACT, KIM JONG IL PUTS A NAVY MAN AT THE HEAD OF THE DEFENSE ESTABLISHMENT, IF, IN FACT, THIS NEW PREMIER IS SOMEBODY THAT'S SOMEWHAT ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE FLEXIBLE POSITION, I THINK WE HAVE TO WATCH THAT VERY CLOSELY. I DON'T THINK WE SHOULD READ ANY GREAT SIGNALS INTO IT, BUT, CERTAIN MOVES HAVE BEEN MADE. THE BAD NEWS IS, OF COURSE, THE MILITARY'S IN A MUCH STRONGER POSITION AND THE MILITARY HAVE TRADITIONALLY BEEN THE HARD-CORE BOYS THAT HAVE BLOCKED ISSUES. BUT, THERE ARE LITTLE GLIMMERS OF POSSIBLE HOPE IN THERE. HOST: WHAT ABOUT THE SOUTH KOREAN REACTION, MR. BROWN, TO RECENT EVENTS? BROWN: THE GOVERNMENT HAS, I THINK, VERY MUCH TO THEIR CREDIT, DECIDED THAT THEY WILL MAINTAIN THIS POLICY THAT THEY CALL THE SUNSHINE POLICY, WHICH ALLOWS FOR PRIVATE EXCHANGES AND BUSINESS DEALINGS WITH THE NORTH KOREANS TO EXPAND EVEN WHEN GOVERNMENT DIALOGUE, NORTH AND SOUTH, IS FROZEN. THE UNFORTUNATE THING IS THAT PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THAT KIND OF POLICY IS ERODING IN SOUTH KOREA PRECISELY BECAUSE OF THE KIND OF UNREASONABLE ACTIONS WHICH THE NORTH IS TAKING. AND THAT'S AN EXAMPLE OF HOW THE NORTH KOREANS DON'T FULLY UNDERSTAND THE IMPLICATIONS AND REACTIONS THAT THEIR OWN ACTIONS ARE TAKING. AND YOU HAVE A MILITARY THERE WHOSE ONLY CONTACTS WITH THE OUTSIDE WORLD ARE WITH ROGUE REGIMES IN OTHER PLACES THAT THEY'RE COOPERATING WITH AND IS OTHERWISE QUITE ISOLATED FROM INTERNATIONAL INFLUENCES. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS MIXTURE. LILLEY: I WOULD AGREE THERE. I THINK THE SOUTH KOREANS HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY MODERATE IN THIS ONE. AND THEY'RE GOING AHEAD WITH THESE TOURIST GROUPS UP TO KUM GANG SAN MOUNTAIN. THEY HAD THE FIVE HUNDRED CATTLE THAT THE HEAD OF HYUNDAI PUT ACROSS. THEY ARE REALLY OPENING UP. AND IT'S A REAL OPPORTUNITY, BECAUSE THE BASIS OF ANY REAL PEACE ON THAT PENINSULA, I THINK, IS IN NORTH-SOUTH ACCORDS. AND THEY REACHED THESE ACCORDS IN '91-'92, COMPREHENSIVE ACCORDS. HOST: WHICH THE NORTH DID NOT THEN OBSERVE? LILLEY: IT DID NOT OBSERVE, BUT, STILL, BY '94, YOU WERE MOVING TOWARDS PREMIER TALKS. AND YOU WERE EVEN MOVING TOWARDS A SUMMIT BETWEEN KIM IL SUNG AND KIM YOUNG SAM. THEN KIM IL SUNG DIED. AND THEN THERE WAS A LOT OF MISUNDERSTANDING AT THE TIME OF HIS DEATH. AND EMOTIONS WERE HIGH AND ACCUSATIONS WERE MADE. IT BROKE DOWN. BUT I THINK, AGAIN, THAT IS THE KEY, NORTH-SOUTH. HOST: FOUR PARTY TALKS ARE SCHEDULED TO RESUME, ARE THEY NOT? LILLEY: OCTOBER FIRST IN GENEVA, RIGHT. HOST: AND WHAT DO YOU THINK MIGHT BE HOPED FROM THEM. BROWN: VERY LITTLE IN MY MIND. I THINK THE NORTH KOREANS ARE NOT, AT THIS POINT, SERIOUS ABOUT REDUCING TENSIONS ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA, AND THAT'S WHAT THESE TALKS ARE ABOUT. HOST: AMBASSADOR, IT'S CLEARLY BEEN AN OBJECTIVE OF NORTH KOREA FROM THE BEGINNING TO EXCLUDE SOUTH KOREA FROM TALKS AND HAVE A ONE-ON-ONE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE UNITED STATES. DO YOU THINK ANY OF THEIR RECENT BEHAVIOR CAN BE EXPLAINED IN TERMS OF MOVING TOWARD THAT OBJECTIVE AND IF SO, IS IT SUCCEEDING? LILLEY: IT CERTAINLY SUCCEEDED IN 1993. THEY HAD MADE IT VERY CLEAR, EVEN WHEN I WAS TALKING WITH THEM IN JANUARY 1992, THAT THEIR OBJECTIVE WAS TO GET INTO DIRECT TALKS WITH THE UNITED STATES. AND WE MADE IT CONDITIONAL ON TWO THINGS -- CHALLENGE INSPECTIONS AND A CONSTRUCTIVE NORTH-SOUTH DIALOGUE. THEY WENT BACK ON BOTH OF THOSE. AND THEN, IT STARTED AGAIN WITH THE WAR SCARE IN '93, WHICH THEN PUT US INTO THESE NEGOTIATIONS ON THE LIGHT WATER REACTORS THAT BOB GALUCCI HEADED. AND THEY GOT THAT. THAT'S WHAT THEY WANTED. THEY USED THE WAR SCARE TO MOVE US INTO DIRECT NEGOTIATIONS. AND I THINK AGAIN, THEY WOULD LIKE TO GET MILITARY TO MILITARY TALKS, TALKS ON A PEACE TREATY, LIAISON OFFICES ESTABLISHED, SANCTIONS LIFTED, ALL OF THOSE THINGS THEY WANT TO GET. AND THEY THINK THAT WE ARE A MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TARGET THAN THE SOUTH. BROWN: AND I THINK THERE'S A DANGER RIGHT NOW, A DANGER THAT THE SOUTH KOREANS CLEARLY PERCEIVE, THAT THE MISSILE TEST WAS DESIGNED TO ONCE AGAIN GET THEM IN SERIOUS NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES, WHICH NEITHER THE SOUTH KOREANS OR THE JAPANESE, WHO ARE DIRECTLY THREATENED BY THIS, NOR THE CHINESE, ARE INVOLVED IN. SO THE WHOLE THING IS FOCUSED ON THE U.S. I'M NOT SURE THAT THIS WAS A MAJOR FACTOR IN WHAT THE NORTH KOREANS WERE DOING, BUT IT IS VERY DEFINITELY PART OF WHAT'S TAKING PLACE NOW. AND I THINK IT'S VERY MUCH INCUMBENT UPON THE ADMINISTRATION TO BRING THE SOUTH KOREANS, THE JAPANESE AND, I WOULD ALSO ARGUE, THE CHINESE VERY MUCH INTO ALL OF OUR GAME PLANNING OF HOW WE'RE GOING TO GET ACCESS TO THIS NUCLEAR FACILITY. HOST: WELL, OF COURSE, THE JAPANESE WENT ON MILITARY ALERT AFTER THE FIRING OF THE FIRST MISSILE AND EXPECTED THE FIRING OF A SECOND FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. BUT THE EFFICACY OF ANY MILITARY ALERT WITHOUT A MISSILE DEFENSE AS YOU MENTIONED, AMBASSADOR LILLEY, IS QUESTIONABLE AT BEST. LILLEY: YES, WHAT THE NORTH KOREANS HAVE STIMULATED NOW IS THE JAPANESE RECONSIDERATION OF A UNILATERAL RECONNAISSANCE SATELLITE CAPABILITY. AND GETTING THE JAPANESE INTO SPACE IN MILITARY WAYS IS SOMETHING NOBODY REALLY WANTS. AND I THINK THAT THAT'S ONE THING. THE SECOND THING THAT IS AN ANOMALY HERE IS THAT WE, IN 1996, HAVE AN AGREEMENT WITH SOUTH KOREA TO LIMIT THEIR MISSILES TO A HUNDRED AND EIGHTY KILOMETERS. AND THEREFORE EVERYBODY IS UTTERLY DEPENDENT UPON THE UNITED STATES. NORTH KOREA FIRES A MISSILE THAT PROBABLY GOES FOUR THOUSAND KILOMETERS. IT MAKES THE SOUTH KOREANS LOOK AS THOUGH THEY ARE SECOND COUSINS IN THIS DEAL. AND THE WHOLE THING IS DESIGNED TO HUMILIATE THE SOUTH. BECAUSE IF YOU SAW THE TRUMPETING THAT NORTH KOREA -- THE VICTORY OF THE SOCIALIST SYSTEM, ET CETERA, ET CETERA. HOST: SO THIS IS GOING TO HAVE SOME LONG RANGE IMPACT? BROWN: YES, AND IF WE'RE GOING TO DEAL WITH IT EFFECTIVELY, WE CAN'T DEAL WITH IT JUST AS THE UNITED STATES. WE DIDN'T DEAL WITH THE NUCLEAR PROBLEM ALONE. WE HAD TO USE JAPANESE, CHINESE, SECURITY COUNCIL, I-A-E-A [INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY]. WE HAD A GRAND STRATEGY FOR DEALING WITH IT. AND I THINK WE'RE GOING TO NEED AS A COUNTRY TO DO THE SAME KIND OF THING THIS TIME IN CONFRONTING THE NUCLEAR FACILITY AND THE TEST. HOST: I'M AFRAID THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS WEEK. I'D LIKE TO THANK OUR GUESTS -- JAMES LILLEY FROM THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE; AND DAVID BROWN FROM THE ASIA PACIFIC POLICY CENTER -- FOR JOINING ME TO DISCUSS THE PROBLEMS OF DEALING WITH NORTH KOREA. THIS IS ROBERT REILLY FOR ON THE LINE. 18-Sep-98 2:20 PM EDT (1820 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .