DATE=7/22/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-43934
TITLE=NORTH KOREA FAMINE IMPACT
BYLINE=DAVID MCALARY
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:

INTRO:  FOUR YEARS OF FAMINE HAVE HAD A DEVASTATING IMPACT ON THE
NORTH KOREAN POPULATION, ACCORDING TO A NEW STUDY OF NORTH KOREAN
REFUGEES IN CHINA.  AS WE HEAR FROM V-O-A'S DAVID MCALARY, THE 
DEATH RATE HAS JUMPED, BIRTH RATES HAVE DROPPED, AND HOUSEHOLD 
SIZES HAVE SHRUNKEN.

TEXT:  A COUNTRY IN WHICH MANY PEOPLE HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 
FORAGING FOR FOOD IS  NOT  THE PICTURE OF HEALTH.  THAT HAS BEEN 
THE SITUATION IN NORTH KOREA, WHERE A SERIES OF NATURAL DISASTERS
HAS LED TO BAD HARVESTS AND SEVERE FOOD SHORTAGES.  THE NATION 
HAS BEEN LARGELY DEPENDENT ON OUTSIDE AID TO FEED ITS ESTIMATED 
23-MILLION PEOPLE SINCE 1995.

SOME WESTERN OBSERVERS ESTIMATE THAT TWO-MILLION TO THREE-MILLION
PEOPLE MAY HAVE DIED AS A RESULT OF THE FAMINE.

PYONGYANG IS SECRETIVE ABOUT ITS NATIONAL STATISTICS, BUT 
INDEPENDENT DATA GATHERED FROM NORTH KOREAN REFUGEES BY U-S 
RESEARCHERS ARE GRIM.

                   /// FIRST ROBINSON ACT ///

         THE SITUATION LOOKS SEVERE, AND IT POINTS TO THE FACT 
         THAT PEOPLE HAVE BEEN DYING, AND MAY POSSIBLY CONTINUE 
         TO BE DYING.

                         /// END ACT ///

COURTLAND ROBINSON IS A POPULATION RESEARCHER AT THE JOHNS 
HOPKINS UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH IN BALTIMORE, 
MARYLAND.  LAST YEAR, HE AND COLLEAGUES ASKED ABOUT BIRTHS, 
DEATHS, FAMILY SIZE AND FOOD SOURCES IN INTERVIEWS WITH 440 
MIGRANTS WHO HAD CROSSED FROM NORTH KOREA'S NORTH HAMGYONG 
PROVINCE TO REFUGEE CAMPS IN CHINA'S YANBIAN AUTONOMOUS 
PREFECTURE.

                   /// SECOND ROBINSON ACT ///

         HOUSEHOLDS IN OUR SAMPLE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING 
         INCREASING MORTALITY AND DECLINING HOUSEHOLD SIZE OVER 
         THE PERIOD OF THE STUDY, 1995 TO 1997.  THAT IS 
         SUGGESTIVE FAMILIES WERE INCREASINGLY SUFFERING UNDER 
         THE WEIGHT OF CERTAINLY FOOD SHORTAGES, POSSIBLY OTHER 
         ECONOMIC IMPACTS -- A COMBINATION OF EVENTS.

                         /// END ACT ///

MR. ROBINSON'S FINDINGS, PUBLISHED IN THE MEDICAL JOURNAL 
"LANCET," INDICATE A DOUBLING OF DEATH RATES BETWEEN 1995 AND 
1997 AND A SEVEN-FOLD JUMP BETWEEN 1993 AND 1997, FROM SIX DEATHS
TO 42 FOR EVERY ONE-THOUSAND PEOPLE.  THE JOHNS HOPKINS 
DEMOGRAPHER LEARNED THAT OFFICIAL RATIONS BY THE END OF 1997 
PROVIDED LESS THAN FIVE PERCENT OF THE PRE-CRISIS AVERAGE OF 700 
GRAMS PER PERSON DAILY.

                   /// THIRD ROBINSON ACT ///

         AN INCREASING PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLDS HAVE RELIED 
         PRIMARILY ON FORAGING FOR ALTERNATIVE FOODS -- TREE 
         BARK, WEEDS, ROOTS, BERRIES ET CETERA FOR THEIR PRIMARY 
         SOURCE OF FOOD.  SO ALL OF THESE FACTS TAKEN TOGETHER 
         PAINT A PICTURE OF SUBSTANTIAL DISTRESS AMONG NORTH 
         KOREAN HOUSEHOLDS.

                         /// END ACT ///

THE RESEARCHERS URGE CAUTION IN PROJECTING THEIR REFUGEE ANALYSIS
ONTO AN ENTIRE NATION.  MIGRANTS, THEY SAY, ARE  NOT  TYPICAL OF 
AN ENTIRE PEOPLE, SINCE THEY TEND TO BE MOSTLY YOUNG MEN, AND 
THEIR CONDITION MORE DIRE.  BUT EVEN IF THE RESULTS OF THE 
QUESTIONS ARE  NOT  SCIENTIFICALLY REPRESENTATIVE, MR. ROBINSON 
SAYS THEY ARE AT LEAST INDICATIVE OF NORTH KOREA'S PLIGHT.

                   /// FOURTH ROBINSON ACT ///

         WE THINK THAT THE FIGURE OF 42-PER-THOUSAND AVERAGE 
         MORTALITY DURING THE STUDY PERIOD 1995 TO [19]97 
         CERTAINLY IS QUITE HIGH AND SUGGESTIVE THAT INDEED, MANY
         NORTH KOREAN HOUSEHOLDS HAVE SUFFERED DRAMATIC DOWNTURNS
         AS THE RESULT OF THIS ONGOING CRISIS.

                         /// END ACT ///

THE PUBLIC HEALTH RESEARCHERS WILL SHARE THEIR DATA WITH 
INTERNATIONAL AGENCIES AND NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS WORKING
IN RELIEF OPERATIONS. MR. ROBINSON SAYS HE HOPES THE NUMBERS 
STIMULATE PYONGYANG TO ALLOW SIMILAR INVESTIGATIONS WITHIN THE 
COUNTRY.

                   /// FIFTH ROBINSON ACT ///

         I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO GET INSIDE THE COUNTRY TO DO 
         MORE REPRESENTATIVE STUDIES WITHIN NORTH KOREAN 
         HOUSEHOLDS AND GET A BETTER UNDERSTANDING HOW THIS FOOD 
         CRISIS HAS AFFECTED LIVES AND HOW WE MIGHT USE THAT 
         INFORMATION TO BEST TARGET THE HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE 
         AND THE DEVELOPMENT AID THAT I CERTAINLY HOPE WILL 
         CONTINUE TO BE FORTHCOMING AS NORTH KOREA TRIES TO PULL 
         OUT OF, I THINK, A VERY DEEP SPIRAL THAT IT'S BEEN IN 
         FOR THE LAST FEW YEARS.

                         /// END ACT ///

AS COURTLAND ROBINSON PUTS IT, IT IS  NOT  HELPFUL TO INSIST THAT
MORTALITY RATES ARE A MATTER OF STATE SECURITY.   (SIGNED)

NEB/DEM/WTW

22-Jul-99 5:17 PM EDT (2117 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.