DATE=8/11/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=NORTH KOREA MISSILE
NUMBER=5-44039
BYLINE=GIL BUTLER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
INTERNET=YES
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:


INTRO:  North Korea may be nearing a test of a new 
long-range missile that has been condemned by its 
neighbors and by the United States.  In this 
background report, correspondent Gil Butler looks at 
the possible ramifications of the new missile for 
international security.

TEXT:  "Asia Week" magazine says it must be the most 
anticipated rocket launch since the Apollo-11 mission 
to the moon.  For weeks, Western intelligence agencies 
have been predicting that North Korea is planning to 
test launch a new, long-range missile, the Taepodong-
II, believed to be capable of hitting the U-S state of 
Alaska.

Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise 
Institute says North Korea's intention, if it goes 
through with the test, is to -- in his words -- knock 
on the door of the United States.

Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution declines 
to predict whether North Korea will carry out the 
missile test.

            /// FIRST O'HANLON ACT ///

      There are people who are trying to say it will 
      or it will not test.  I would rather just say 
      that the chances are certainly real because we 
      know that North Korea likes to create crises.  
      It is about the only diplomatic card it seems to 
      have up its sleeve.  Whether it will judge that 
      threatening to test is enough, or whether it 
      actually decides to carry out a test, is 
      anybody's guess.

            /// END ACT ///

He says there may be some rocky months ahead if the 
decision is to go ahead with the test.

Nicholas Eberstadt and other analysts say tensions 
certainly have risen over the threatened missile test.  
About one-year-ago, North Korea raised tensions in the 
region when it fired an earlier version of the missile 
over Japan.

If the Taepodong II test goes forward, how should the 
international community respond?

Japan has said there will be economic consequences for 
North Korea if it goes ahead with the test.  Mr. 
Eberstadt says a credible warning would be for Japan 
to suspend its participation in the program to build 
safer nuclear reactors for North Korea.  That program, 
financed by South Korea, Japan, and other countries, 
is part of the effort to keep Pyongyang from trying to 
develop nuclear weapons.

Baker Spring of Washington's Heritage Foundation calls 
for the United States to respond to a North Korean 
missile launch by dropping existing treaty 
restrictions on developing theater missile defenses.

            /// SPRING ACT ///

      Basically the administration policy is barring 
      the effective testing of those systems against 
      the kind of missile the North Koreans launched 
      last year, let alone what they may be ready to 
      launch this year.

            /// END ACT ///

/// OPT ///  The United States is abiding by the terms 
of the ABM treaty, though opponents argue it is no 
longer in force because the agreement was made with 
the Soviet Union, which no longer exists.  /// END OPT 
/// 

/// OPT ///  Nicholas Eberstadt is urging a cautious 
reaction to North Korean threats.

            /// EBERSTADT ACT ///

      Military specialists seem to believe that war is 
      only a couple of heartbeats away in the Korean 
      Peninsula today.  But war has only been a couple 
      of heartbeats away since the armistice was 
      signed in 1953.  Is it a tense time?  Yes, it is 
      a tense time.  It has always been a tense time 
      there.  It will be a tense time until the D-P-R-
      K regime fundamentally alters or disappears from 
      the scene.  I guess what is needed is a certain 
      amount of calm vigilance and steady, appropriate 
      responses if North Korea seeks to shake down 
      [extort] the international community with a 
      missile launch.

            /// END ACT ///   ///END OPT ///

Brookings' Michael O'Hanlon says a broader approach to 
dealing with North Korea is needed.

            /// SECOND O'HANLON ACT ///

      My impression from the start of this so-called 
      detente period or relaxation period or sunshine 
      period -- to paraphrase the South Korean 
      president -- is that North Korea does not have 
      enough incentive to go along with these talks, 
      and therefore will make concessions only very 
      slowly and begrudgingly.  And we have to think 
      more ambitiously about ways to induce North 
      Korea down a path of economic reform and gradual 
      demilitarization, rather than just focusing on 
      missiles and nuclear weapons.  I think, 
      therefore that this impasse was predictable.

            /// END ACT ///

While North Korea is deciding whether or not to launch 
a new missile test, the latest round of four-party 
talks on reducing Korean peninsula tensions ended with 
no apparent progress.  In bilateral meetings in Geneva 
between American and North Korean diplomats, the 
United States reiterated its concern over the possible 
long-range missile test.   (Signed)

NEB/MGB/WTW/RAE



11-Aug-1999 09:15 AM EDT (11-Aug-1999 1315 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.