DATE=8/25/1999 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT TITLE=CHINA-NORTH KOREA NUMBER=5-44132 BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN DATELINE=WASHINGTON CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: South Korea is trying to coordinate action by the United States, Japan, and China to get North Korea to call off a planned launch of a long-range missile. As part of its diplomatic initiative, Seoul sent its defense minister to Beijing for the first-ever meeting between defense ministers of the two former wartime enemies. V-O-A's Stephanie Mann reports on China's ability and willingness to influence North Korea. TEXT: China and North Korea used to be close allies - - two communist states in a region of capitalist democracies. In the 1950's, China came to Pyongyang's aid against South Korean and U-S forces in the Korean War. China and North Korea also engaged in barter trade, important for the North's fragile economy. But then, in the late 1970's, Beijing began to adopt capitalist reforms and strengthened its ties with western countries. And in 1992, China established diplomatic relations with South Korea, an action seen by Pyongyang as a serious snub. In the past few years, China has been the number-one provider of food aid and energy to North Korea. Asian affairs analyst at the U-S Institute of Peace, Scott Snyder says China now is trying to maintain good relations with both Pyongyang and Seoul. // SNYDER ACT ONE // I think it is very difficult, but China has demonstrated that it is probably in the best position at this point to have a relationship with both. North Korea's dependence on China is simply too great to ignore. And at the same time, the Chinese government has a vested interest in improving its relationship with South Korea, precisely because South Korea's influence on the peninsula is predominant and is likely to be defining in terms of the future of the power balance on the peninsula. // END ACT // Asked if he thinks China would be interested in intervening with North Korea on behalf of the South, Mr. Snyder says Beijing will not do anything that would risk damaging its ties with Pyongyang. So, he says any Chinese intervention would be quiet and perhaps indirect. Nevertheless, Mr. Snyder says China is concerned about the possibility of North Korea launching a ballistic missile and how that could jeopardize stability on the Korean peninsula. A year ago, North Korea test-fired a missile that passed over Japan. Tokyo, Seoul, and Washington have warned another such test would have serious diplomatic and economic consequences. // OPT // Mr. Snyder says officials in Beijing may be more willing to cooperate in response to an appeal by South Korea than to one from the United States. // OPT SNYDER ACT TWO // They (China) want stability, which is an interest that they share with the United States. But at the same time, anything that is done in terms of active cooperation with the United States at this time may be a little bit more controversial, particularly given the backdrop of the embassy bombing (in Belgrade) . and other strains on the U-S-China relationship at this time. // END ACT // END OPT // Mr. Snyder says North Korea is likely to resist any pressure, even from China, unless it feels it has no other option. South Korean journalist Jeong-woo Kil agrees, but he says North Korea is desperate to continue receiving Chinese economic aid. // KILL ACT ONE // When we consider North Korea's full situation -- economic difficulties and potential cooperation in energy supply -- China might be the only country who can help or salvage North Korea. So, the North Korean leadership cannot ignore (it), even though they are saying that the missile launch is totally a North Korean sovereignty issue. // END ACT // Mr. Kil, a Washington-based columnist for South Korea's Joong-ang Ilbo newspaper, says the missile issue is at an important juncture. He points to the South Korean and Chinese defense ministers' meeting and says Seoul had been pushing for it for several years. Mr. Kil says the fact that China agreed to it at this time indicates Beijing is now willing to intervene in the missile issue. // OPT KIL ACT TWO // This is very symbolic meeting, which means the Chinese government seems to be prepared to send some signal (to) the North Korean military, which might be in charge of the missile launch, that North Korea's hostility represented by the missile launch (is) not beneficial for North Korea themselves, but also is a serious concern for North Korea's ally, China. // END ACT // END OPT // Scott Snyder agrees the defense ministers' meeting has symbolic significance. But he says the substance of the Chinese-South Korean defense relationship remains to be developed, and he calls the meeting only a starting point. // REST OPTIONAL // // SNYDER ACT THREE // There is a history of over-expectation, I think, in Seoul with regard to what China might be willing to do in order to help South Korea in dealing with diplomatic affairs on the peninsula. And I think that the Chinese approach, particularly on military cooperation, is going to remain very cautious and very incremental. // END ACT // Mr. Snyder sees South Korea's initiative as the latest effort in an ongoing international diplomatic process to try to limit North Korea's destabilizing actions. (SIGNED) NEB/slm/RAE 25-Aug-1999 11:25 AM LOC (25-Aug-1999 1525 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .