Despite Progress, North Korea Poses Major Threat

By Linda D. Kozaryn
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, April 3, 2001 - It's an "exciting" time to be
on the Korean Peninsula. "Things are changing at a rapid
pace," Army Gen. Thomas A. Schwartz recently told Congress
members here.

"Who would have predicted that the summit would have taken
place like it did last year?" the U.S. Forces Korea
commander said. "Who would have predicted the amount of
dialogue, the cultural exchanges - all the things that are
happening?"

Nonetheless, the four-star warned, North Korea remains a
major threat to regional stability despite the thaw in
relations. Chairman Kim Chong-il's military forces are now
"bigger, better, closer and deadlier" than they were last
year.

Schwartz, who commands U.N. Command/Combined Forces Command
and U.S. Forces Korea, testified before the House and
Senate armed services committees in late March. Each
spring, the military's top regional commanders present
security reviews to Capitol Hill. They cover their
command's readiness posture, challenges and priorities.

Schwartz's testimony and prepared statements both
highlighted the diplomatic progress since the June meeting
between South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and North
Korea's Kim Chong-il. He said both sides have taken steps
toward reconciliation.

o Former President Clinton and former Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright met with North Korean leaders in
October.

o Kim Chong-il is slated to visit South Korea in the next
few months.

o North and South agreed to restore a railway through the
Demilitarized Zone, known as the DMZ, and to create an
economic development zone in the North Korean town of
Kaesong.

o Defense ministers met for the first time and officials
from both sides held economic talks.

o On three occasions, North Korean officials allowed
families separated since the Korean War to hold reunions.

o North and South Korean athletes marched under a single
flag during the opening ceremonies of the Sydney Olympics
last year. Both sides have called for sports and cultural
exchanges.

Schwartz called the economic, diplomatic and cultural
measures taken so far "first steps." He said the improved
relations don't warrant a cut in U.S. troop strength, and
he would not recommend one at this time.

"Tangible military measures are key to reducing the risk of
conflict," he stressed. The United States and its Pacific
allies must encourage verifiable, reciprocal military
confidence-building measures, he said.

If the North takes actions to reduce the tension and the
threat, Schwartz continued, "then there could be a
concomitant reduction of troops. But until we reach that
period of time, I would not recommend to do so."

North Korea still fields far more conventional military
force than self-defense would warrant, Schwartz said. With
1.2 million soldiers, sailors and airmen, North Korea has
the world's fifth largest active duty force.

One million active duty soldiers make up North Korea's
ground force. The air force has more than 1,700 aircraft
and the navy has more than 800 ships, including the world's
largest submarine fleet. Another 6 million reservists
support the active duty force.

The North has deployed about 70 percent of its active force
-- 700,000 troops, 8,000 artillery systems and 2,000 tanks
-- within 90 miles of the DMZ. This percentage, Schwartz
said, continues to rise.

Using a "military first" policy, North Korean leader Kim
Chong-il keeps putting money into the military at the
expense of the civil sector, the general said. North Korea
invests 25 percent to 33 percent of its gross national
product annually in the military, compared to the 3 percent
the United States invests.

While North Korean citizens lack food, water, heat,
clothing and medical care, Schwartz said, the military
continues to reposition key offensive units, emplace anti-
tank barriers and set up combat positions between Pyongyang
and the DMZ. Military officials are also improving coastal
defense forces, building missile support facilities and
procuring air defense weapons and fighter aircraft.

Although North Korea upheld its end of a moratorium on
flight-testing missiles, it continues enhancing missile
capabilities, Schwartz said. North Korea's arsenal now has
more than 500 Scud missiles that can threaten the entire
peninsula. North Korea has reportedly sold about 450
missiles to Iran, Iraq, Syria, Pakistan and others.

North Korea is producing medium-range missiles that can
reach Japan and is developing multistage missiles capable
of striking the United States. North Korean officials have
tested the 2,000-kilometer Taepo Dong 1 and continue
working on the 5,000-plus kilometer Taepo Dong 2.

In the South, Schwartz pointed out, the Republic of Korea
can mobilize more than 4.5 million troops, including 54
divisions. Combined U.S.-Republic of Korean fighting assets
include more than 1,500 strike aircraft, 1,000 rotary
aircraft, 5,000 tracked vehicles, 3,000 tanks and 250
combat ships including four or more carrier battle groups.

"If necessary," the commander said, "this combined combat
power and might can defeat a North Korean attack and
destroy its military and regime. It is this power and might
that strengthens our deterrence mission and ultimately
provides regional security," he said.

U.S. troops have stood guard on the DMZ for more than 50
years, Schwartz noted. At any time, he said, "70 percent of
the Army is either getting ready to go in, is in Korea, or
just came out of Korea."

The 37,000 U.S. troops stationed in the Republic of Korea
today remain trained and ready, the general stressed. They
are "fit to fight and win decisively."

"The key over there right now is our presence," Schwartz
concluded. When the North looks South and sees 37,000
Americans and 750,000 South Koreans, he said, they know one
thing for sure: "They're not going to do anything.

"They know we're ready. They know we're together, and
that's deterred war for 50 years. We're tremendously proud
of that."

To read Schwartz's prepared statement to the Senate Armed
Services Committee, go to
www.senate.gov/~armed_services/statemnt/2001/010327ts.pdf.