India bows to Western concerns over Agni missile
Date: Fri, 6 Dec 1996 3:10:57 PST
 Copyright 1996 by Reuters

  	  				 

	 NEW DELHI, Dec 6 (Reuter) - The Indian government appears to  

have quietly bowed to Western pressure by deciding to shelve the 

Agni ballistic missile, risking a backlash from hardline Hindu 

rivals and the military establishment, analysts said on Friday. 

	 The decision to put the intermediate-range missile on hold  

drew stinging criticism from the opposition Bharatiya Janata 

Party (BJP) and appeared bound to revive a simmering debate over 

the nation's ambiguous nuclear arms policy. 

	 ``I am very disappointed with this decision,'' said Jasjit  

Singh, director of the state-funded Institute for Defence 

Studies and Analyses. 

	 ``The Agni missile development programme must go on,''  

senior BJP leader Jaswant Singh told Reuters. 

	 The decision to shelve the surface-to-surface Agni missile  

which has a range of 2,500 km (1,500 miles), was quietly 

conveyed in a Defence Ministry report to parliament, released on 

Thursday. 

	 The ministry said research on the rocket had been completed  

after three tests ending in early 1994, and there were no plans 

to produce the 14-tonne, 19-metre (60-foot) Agni. 

	 But the ministry said the government reserved the option to  

build the missile if India's security was threatened. 

	 Analysts said the decision was inextricably linked to  

U.S.-led opposition to India's missile programme, which 

Washington says could upset regional stability. 

	 ``The widely held perception is that India's missile  

programme has slowed down under U.S. pressure,'' defence analyst 

Brahma Chellaney of the Centre for Policy Research said. 

	 ``U.S. pressure is the obvious interpretation,'' Jasjit  

Singh added. 

	 BJP spokesman Krishan Lal Sharma said: ``Development and  

deployment of this missile should not be delayed or stopped 

under pressure.'' 

	 The U.S. embassy in New Delhi said it would reserve comment  

until it had studied the defence ministry's report. 

	 The Agni, believed capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, is  

considered a potential deterrent against China, which is a 

declared nuclear weapons power. 

	 India's 250-km (150-mile) Prithvi missile would be more  

suited as a deterrent against Pakistan, analysts said. 

	 The decision to shelve the Agni was made public only days  

after Chinese President Jiang Zemin visited India. 

	 Analysts said the defence ministry's report to parliament  

was written in August, well before Jiang's trip, but the timing 

of the news still raised eyebrows. 

	 ``The message people might read is that Jiang came here and  

reassured us to such an extent that we don't need missiles 

against China,'' Chellaney said. ``The timing is inappropriate 

and embarrassing to the government.'' 

	 The BJP accused Deve Gowda's centre-left government, which  

has sought to improve ties with India's neighbours, of ignoring 

an alleged security risk posed by Pakistan and China. 

	 ``If China supplies M-11 missiles to Pakistan and China has  

ballistic missiles, it is prudent to take into account the 

capabilities of nations with whom we have unsettled boundary 

disputes and a history of arguments,'' Jaswant Singh said. 

	 Portions of India's borders with both Pakistan and China are  

in dispute. 

	 The decision to hold back on the Agni compounded confusion  

over New Delhi's nuclear weapons stance, defence analysts said. 

	 India carried out a nuclear test in 1974. Its long-standing  

policy, called recessed deterrence, has been to say it does not 

have a nuclear weapon but retains the option to build the bomb. 

	 ``There is no reasoned thinking on the form that a nuclear  

deterrent should take,'' retired rear-admiral K.R. Menon said, 

noting that New Delhi had opposed the Comprehensive Test Ban 

Treaty (CTBT) to ban nuclear weapons tests. 

	 ``Why oppose the CTBT if we do not mean to convert our  

nuclear weapons capability?'' Menon said. ``If I were in 

Washington, I would be completely foxed by Delhi's thinking.'' 

	 ``Recessed deterrence needs an operationally tested  

missile,'' Jasjit Singh said, adding that missiles needed two or 

three dozen tests, not three as with the Agni, to be 

operational. 

	 ``It is meaningless to say you are keeping the nuclear  

option open unless you have a reasonable missile,'' he said.