DATE=7/21/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40966
TITLE=INDIA / NUCLEAR
BYLINE=DOUGLAS BAKSHIAN
DATELINE=NEW DELHI
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  POLITICAL ANALYSTS SAY MUCH WORK REMAINS AHEAD FOR INDIA 
AND THE UNITED STATES ON NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT.  THEY SAY TALKS ON 
THE ISSUE BETWEEN U-S ENVOY STROBE TALBOTT AND INDIAN FOREIGN 
POLICY ADVISER JASWANT SINGH ARE PART OF A LONG AND DIFFICULT 
PROCESS.  V-O-A NEW DELHI CORRESPONDENT DOUGLAS BAKSHIAN REPORTS.

TEXT:  BOTH INDIA AND THE UNITED STATES DESCRIBED THE TALKS AS 
CONSTRUCTIVE.  AN INDIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESMAN ADDED THERE 
WAS MOVEMENT ON BOTH SIDES, AND THE GAP BETWEEN THEIR PERCEPTIONS
WAS NARROWED.  BUT BENEATH THE DIPLOMATIC GENERALITIES, BRAHMA 
CHELLANEY, OF DELHI'S CENTER FOR POLICY RESEARCH, SAYS A 
DIFFICULT SITUATION REMAINS.

                   /// FIRST CHELLANEY ACT ///

         THE VERY FACT THAT THEY HAVE  NOT  SAID MUCH BEYOND THE 
         USUAL DIPLOMATIC WORDS GOES TO SHOW THAT NEGOTIATIONS 
         HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT, THAT THEY HAVE BEEN QUITE INTENSE. 
         AND THE VERY FACT THAT ANOTHER ROUND HAS BEEN SCHEDULED 
         FOR LATE AUGUST GOES TO SHOW THAT A LOT OF HARD 
         BARGAINING HAS YET TO TAKE PLACE.

                         /// END ACT ///

MR. TALBOTT AND MR. SINGH HAVE HELD THREE ROUNDS OF TALKS OVER 
THE PAST TWO MONTHS.  INDIAN AND U-S OFFICIALS BOTH CAUTION THIS 
IS PART OF A DIALOGUE THAT MAY TAKE QUITE SOME TIME. 

WASHINGTON WANTS NEW DELHI TO SIGN THE COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN 
TREATY UNCONDITIONALLY.  INDIAN HAS LONG OPPOSED THE TREATY, 
SAYING IT ALLOWS THE RECOGNIZED NUCLEAR POWERS TO FINE-TUNE THEIR
ARSENALS WHILE HOLDING OTHER POWERS IN CHECK.  HOWEVER, NEW DELHI
INDICATES IT COULD BE WILLING TO JOIN THE TREATY IF INDIA IS 
GIVEN THE STATUS OF A NUCLEAR-WEAPONS STATE.  WITH THIS 
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND, MR. CHELLANEY SAYS ANY FUTURE AGREEMENT 
WILL BE DIFFICULT.

                  /// SECOND CHELLANEY ACT ///

         THE DEAL THAT HAS TO BE CLINCHED WILL BE A DIFFICULT 
         DEAL, BECAUSE INDIA AND THE UNITED STATES HAVE BEEN ON 
         THE OPPOSITE SIDES OF THE DEBATE FOR DECADES AND NOW THE
         AMERICANS ARE ASKING THE INDIANS TO JOIN THE 
         NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME -- THE VERY REGIME THE INDIANS 
         HAVE FOUGHT TOOTH AND NAIL.  SO ANY DEAL WILL BE 
         DIFFICULT, IT WILL BE A COMPLEX DEAL, AND IT WILL HAVE 
         TO INVOLVE MUTUAL GIVE AND TAKE.  AND I THINK THE 
         INDIANS ARE GOING TO DRIVE A VERY HARD BARGAIN BEFORE 
         THEY EXTEND ANY COOPERATION TO THE NON-PROLIFERATION 
         REGIME.

                         /// END ACT ///

THERE ARE SIDE ISSUES AS WELL.  FOR YEARS INDIA HAS BEEN DENIED 
ACCESS TO TRANSFERS OF DUAL-USE TECHNOLOGY, OR EQUIPMENT THAT HAS
BOTH CIVILIAN AND MILITARY APPLICATIONS.  WESTERN POWERS FEAR 
SUCH TECHNOLOGY COULD BE USED IN MISSILE OR WEAPONS PROGRAMS.  
INDIAN OFFICIALS SAY ANY AGREEMENT ON THE TEST BAN TREATY MUST 
ADDRESS INDIA'S STRATEGIC CONCERNS, INCLUDING ACCESS TO HIGH 
TECHNOLOGY. 

POLITICAL AUTHOR BABANI SENGUPTA SAYS IT WILL  NOT  BE EASY TO 
FINDSOLUTIONS TO SUCH DIFFERENCES. 

                      /// SENGUPTA ACT ///

         WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FISSILE MATERIAL (MATERIAL USED TO 
         MAKE BOMBS) IN STOCK, AND WHAT HAPPENS TO THE TRANSFER 
         OF TECHNOLOGY?  THESE ARE VERY RELATED ISSUES TO THE 
         C-T-B-T [COMPREHENSIVE TEST-BAN TREATY].  NEITHER SIDE 
         HAS VERY CLEARLY STATED ITS NEGOTIATING POSITION, WHICH 
         STILL REMAINS, I THINK, FLEXIBLE AND FLUID.  BUT IT WILL
         NOT  BE EASY TO COME TO A SOLUTION OF THESE PROBLEMS.

                         /// END ACT ///

INDIA AND PAKISTAN CONDUCTED NUCLEAR TESTS IN MAY, PROMPTING 
ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AND INTERNATIONAL CONDEMNATION.  POLITICAL 
ANALYSTS SAY TENSIONS HAVE INCREASED IN SOUTH ASIA FOLLOWING THE 
TESTS, AND BOTH NATIONS ARE REDEFINING THEIR INTERNATIONAL 
RELATIONS NOW THAT THEY HAVE JOINED THE NUCLEAR CLUB.   (SIGNED)

NEB/DAB/WTW

21-Jul-98 6:47 AM EDT (1047 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.