DATE=7/27/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41017
TITLE=VAJPAYEE-SHARIF MEETING
BYLINE=DOUGLAS BAKSHIAN
DATELINE=COLOMBO
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  INDIAN POLITICAL ANALYSTS SAY THEY ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
FROM A MEETING BETWEEN THE PRIME MINISTERS OF PAKISTAN AND INDIA 
IN COLOMBO WEDNESDAY, BUT THEY SAY THE DIALOGUE IS IMPORTANT 
BECAUSE IT SENDS A POSITIVE SIGNAL.  V-O-A CORRESPONDENT DOUGLAS 
BAKSHIAN REPORTS FROM COLOMBO.  

TEXT:  THIS WILL BE THE FIRST MEETING BETWEEN PAKISTANI PRIME 
MINISTER NAWAZ SHARIF AND INDIAN LEADER ATAL BEHARI VAJPAYEE 
SINCE THEIR COUNTRIES SET OFF NUCLEAR TESTS IN MAY, PROMPTING 
CONCERNS ABOUT INCREASED TENSIONS IN THE REGION. 

BRAHMA CHELLANY OF THE CENTER FOR POLICY RESEARCH (IN DELHI) SAYS
THE  SESSION WILL SEND AN IMPORTANT SIGNAL, BUT WILL  NOT  LIKELY
PRODUCE ANYTHING OF SUBSTANCE.

                   /// FIRST CHELLANY ACT ///

         BY MEETING TOGETHER IN COLOMBO THE TWO LEADERS CAN TELL 
         THEIR PEOPLE AND TELL THE WORLD THAT DESPITE THEIR 
         RECENT SERIES OF NUCLEAR TESTS AND THE TENSIONS THAT 
         HAVE ARISEN BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN, THAT THE CHANNEL
         OF COMMUNICATIONS BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN REMAINS 
         INTACT.  SO IN THAT SENSE IT WILL BE AN IMPORTANT P-R 
         (PUBLIC RELATIONS) MEETING BUT I DON'T THINK WE CAN 
         EXPECT ANYTHING SUBSTANTIVE TO EMERGE.

                         /// END ACT ///


MR. CHELLANY SAYS NEITHER LEADER IS IN A STRONG ENOUGH POSITION 
TO MAKE CONCESSIONS TO THE OTHER.

                   // SECOND  CHELLANY ACT //

         BOTH THESE PRIME MINISTERS ARE FACING DIFFICULT 
         POLITICAL SITUATIONS AT HOME.  THE PAKISTANI PRIME 
         MINISTER SHARIF IS UNDER SIEGE.  HIS OPPONENTS ARE 
         TRYING TO OUST HIM.  MR. VAJPAYEE, THE INDIAN PRIME 
         MINISTER, IS TRYING TO HOLD ON TO HIS JOB.  HIS 
         COALITION GOVERNMENT IS QUITE FRAGILE. THERE IS A DANGER
         THAT HIS GOVERNMENT MIGHT COLLAPSE IN THE COMING MONTHS,
         AND  NEITHER  SIDE HAS THE ROOM TO MAKE MAJOR 
         CONCESSIONS TO THE OTHER.

                         /// END ACT ///

MR. VAJPAYEE'S NARROW COALITION IS THREATENED BY ONE POWERFUL 
PARTY LEADER WHO HAS BEEN MAKING HINTS ABOUT PULLING OUT.  IN 
PAKISTAN, MR. SHARIF'S STANDING HAS BEEN DEVASTATED BY AN 
ECONOMIC CRISIS THAT HAS SENT THE RUPEE AND VITAL 
FOREIGN-EXCHANGE RESERVES TO DANGEROUS LOWS.

P-R CHARI OF THE INSTITUTE OF PEACE AND CONFLICT STUDIES (IN 
DELHI) SAYS THAT UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS IT IS A POSITIVE 
DEVELOPMENT THAT THE SIDES ARE EVEN MEETING. 

                        /// CHARI ACT ///

         SO YOU HAVE, IN SHORT, A WEAK AND A WEAKER PRIME 
         MINISTER WHO HAVE TO SORT OF BOTHER ABOUT THEIR DOMESTIC
         CONSTITUENCIES.  AND WHAT KIND OF AGREEMENTS THEY COULD 
         REACH BETWEEN THEMSELVES, I'M   NOT  PARTICULARLY 
         HOPEFUL ABOUT.  EXCEPT, AS (WINSTON) CHURCHILL ONCE 
         SAID, IT IS BETTER TO "TALK-TALK" RATHER THAN "WAR-WAR."
         AND TO THAT EXTENT, ANY KIND OF CONTACT BETWEEN THE TWO 
         LEADERS AT THAT LEVEL IS IMPORTANT.

                         /// END ACT ///

THE DIALOGUE PROCESS BETWEEN THE LEADERS OF PAKISTAN AND INDIA IS
JUST OVER ONE YEAR OLD.  MR. SHARIF HAD THREE MEETINGS WITH THE 
PREVIOUS INDIAN PRIME MINISTER, I-K GUJRAL. ANALYSTS SAY THE 
SESSIONS PRODUCED GOOD FEELINGS, BUT  NO  CONCRETE RESULTS.   
(SIGNED)

NEB/DAB/CB/WTW

27-Jul-98 11:17 PM EDT (0317 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.