DATE=9/14/98 
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT 
REPORT NUMBER=2-238604
TITLE=INDIA/SECURITY (L-O)
BYLINE=ANJANA PASRICHA
DATELINE=NEW DELHI 
CONTENT= 
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  CROSS-BORDER ARTILLERY EXCHANGES BETWEEN INDIA AND 
PAKISTAN ALONG THE DISPUTED KASHMIR FRONTIER HAVE ESCALATED SINCE
BOTH COUNTRIES CONDUCTED NUCLEAR TESTS IN MAY -- NEARLY 100 
PEOPLE HAVE DIED, AND SCORES HAVE BEEN WOUNDED ON BOTH SIDES.  
ANJANA PASRICHA SPEAKS TO A U-S SECURITY ANALYST WHO IS TOURING 
BOTH COUNTRIES TO STUDY THE SITUATION.

TEXT:  THE CROSS-BORDER FIRING BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN IN 
KASHMIR IS ROUTINE -- BUT TENSIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN USUAL IN
RECENT MONTHS, RAISING INTERNATIONAL CONCERN.

THE HEAD OF THE HENRY L. STIMSON CENTER, A RESEARCH ORGANIZATION 
IN WASHINGTON, IS MEETING MILITARY AND GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS IN 
BOTH INDIA AND PAKISTAN.  MICHAEL KREPON HAS ALSO VISITED THE 
KASHMIR BORDER. 

MR. KREPON SAYS THE SECURITY SITUATION BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES 
HAS DETERIORATED SINCE THEIR RECENT NUCLEAR TESTS.

                   /// INSERT KREPON ACT /// 

 THEY (THE TESTS ) HAVE RESURFACED TENSIONS BETWEEN THE TWO 
COUNTRIES THAT WERE EBBING PRIOR TO THE TESTS.  THEY HAVE CREATED
MANY NEW PRESSURES AND DIFFICULTIES IN KASHMIR, ESPECIALLY ALONG 
THE LINE OF CONTROL, THEY HAVE FREED UP UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE 
OPTIONS WHICH WE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SEE.  THEY HAVE WEAKENED, 
SPECIALLY IN PAKISTAN, THEY HAVE BADLY WEAKENED THE ECONOMY, AND 
THE NEGATIVE TREND LINES WITHIN PAKISTAN HAVE BEEN ACCELERATED BY
THE TESTS.

                     /// END KREPON ACT /// 

ACCORDING TO MR. KREPON, THE INCREASED VIOLENCE IN KASHMIR SINCE 
THE TESTS IS RAISING CONCERN BECAUSE THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF 
STEPS TO REDUCE THE NUCLEAR DANGERS IN THIS CONFLICT ZONE.  INDIA
AND PAKISTAN HAVE FOUGHT TWO WARS OVER THE DISPUTED KASHMIR 
REGION.

                   /// INSERT KREPON ACT /// 

 WE WORRY ABOUT THE UNCONVENTIONAL ACTS THAT ARE GOING ON, THE 
ACTS OF TERROR, THE FIRING, THE ARTILLERY EXCHANGES BETWEEN INDIA
AND PAKISTAN, AND WE WONDER HOW MUCH RESTRAINT CAN BE SUSTAINED 
UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.  I BELIEVE THAT DURING THE MONTHS OF JULY
AND AUGUST THE AMOUNT OF ORDINANCE THAT WAS EXPENDED BETWEEN 
INDIA AND PAKISTAN WAS EQUAL TO THE AMOUNT OF ORDINANCE EXPENDED 
IN THE LAST TWO WARS.  NOW THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS GAME.  IT IS 
A VERY SERIOUS SITUATION.  OUTSIDERS ARE LOOKING FOR ESCALATION 
CONTROL MEASURES, AND NUCLEAR RISK REDUCTION MEASURES THAT DO NOT
NOW EXIST BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN.

                     /// END KREPON ACT ///

MR. KREPON SAYS INDIAN AND PAKISTANI ARMIES MUST IMMEDIATELY OPEN
BETTER COMMUNICATION CHANNELS, AND THE TWO GOVERNMENTS SHOULD 
BEGIN A SERIOUS DIALOGUE TO RESOLVE CONTENTIOUS ISSUES. 

HE SAYS DOMESTIC POLITICS IS HOLDING THE INDIAN GOVERNMENT BACK 
FROM SIGNING THE COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN TREATY, THOUGH MOST 
OFFICIALS FAVOR SUCH A STEP.

                            // OPT //

                   /// INSERT KREPON ACT /// 

 DOMESTIC POLITICS IS A VERY DIFFICULT PROCESS IN INDIA, IT IS 
NOT CONSENSUS ORIENTED RIGHT NOW, THE GOVERNMENT HAS TO MAKE THE 
ROUNDS AND TRY TO GET THE CONSENT OF OTHER PARTIES BEFORE 
PROCEEDING, BUT THE LONGER INDIA WAITS TO SIGN THE C-T-B-T, THE 
MORE IT WILL BE ISOLATED INTERNATIONALLY, AND THE MORE HARM WILL 
BE DONE TO INDIA'S CREDIBILITY.

                     /// END KREPON ACT ///

                          // END OPT //

ACCORDING TO MR. KREPON, IMPROVING SECURITY THROUGH STABILIZATION
MEASURES MUST BECOME A PRIORITY FOR BOTH NATIONS.   (SIGNED)

NEB/RAE

14-Sep-98 7:45 AM EDT (1145 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.