DATE=9/22/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41425
TITLE=INDIA-PAKISTAN
BYLINE=DOUGLAS BAKSHIAN
DATELINE=NEW DELHI
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  THE PRIME MINISTERS OF INDIA AND PAKISTAN ARE EXPECTED TO
MEET WEDNESDAY AT THE UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY SESSION IN 
NEW YORK.  POLITICAL ANALYSTS SAY THE MEETING WILL LIKELY  NOT  
PRODUCE MUCH OF SUBSTANCE BUT WILL HELP REDUCE TENSIONS BETWEEN 
THE OLD RIVALS. VOA NEW DELHI CORRESPONDENT DOUGLAS BAKSHIAN 
REPORTS. 

TEXT: INDIAN LEADER ATAL BEHARI VAJPAYEE AND PAKISTANI PRIME 
MINISTER NAWAZ SHARIF ARE EXPECTED TO TALK ABOUT TALKS. INDIAN 
NEWS REPORTS SAYS THE TWO WILL LIKELY ANNOUNCE THE RESUMPTION OF 
DISCUSSIONS BETWEEN THEIR FOREIGN SECRETARIES.

THIS HIGH-LEVEL DIALOGUE BROKE DOWN LAST SEPTEMBER BECAUSE OF 
DIFFERENCES OVER KASHMIR, A DISPUTED TERRITORY OVER WHICH INDIA 
AND PAKISTAN HAVE FOUGHT TWO WARS.  POLITICAL ANALYSTS SAY NEW 
DELHI AND ISLAMABAD ARE READY TO RESUME THE FOREIGN SECRETARY 
TALKS BECAUSE BOTH NATIONS ARE IN A VULNERABLE POSITION 
DIPLOMATICALLY. BRAHMA CHELLANY, OF NEW DELHI'S CENTER FOR POLICY
RESEARCH, SAYS MORE INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON INDIA 
AND PAKISTAN IN THE WAKE OF THEIR NUCLEAR TESTS AND BOTH WANT TO 
APPEAR COOPERATIVE.

                       //  CHELLANY ACT //

         AS FAR AS INDIA IS CONCERNED IT WANTS TO PRESENT ITSELF 
         AS A REASONABLE STATE, A STATE THAT IS WILLING TO LIVE 
         IN PEACE WITH ITS NEIGHBORS. AND AS FAR AS PAKISTAN IS 
         CONCERNED, AT A TIME WHEN IT IS FACING A CRISIS OF  
         STATE, AND THE NAWAZ SHARIF GOVERNMENT IS UNDER SIEGE AT
         HOME, ISLAMABAD WOULD FEEL SOME DIPLOMATIC GAINS IF A 
         DIALOGUE WITH INDIA CAN BE RESTARTED.

                             //  END ACT //  



WHILE THE SIDES WILL BE TALKING THEY MAY  NOT  ACHIEVE MUCH OF 
SUBSTANCE. DESPITE THIS, MR. CHELLANY SAYS THEY WILL CREATE A 
POSITIVE ATMOSPHERE THAT COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO PROGRESS ON BIG
ISSUES.

                       //  CHELLANY ACT //

         THE GOVERNMENTS IN BOTH PAKISTAN AND INDIA ARE 
         POLITICALLY QUITE WEAK AND  I DON'T THINK EITHER SIDE IS
         IN A POSITION TO MAKE SUBSTANTIAL  CONCESSIONS. BUT I 
         THINK THAT BY RESTARTING FOREIGN SECRETARY LEVEL TALKS  
         THEY WOULD HELP CREATE THE RIGHT ATMOSPHERE FOR THE 
         FUTURE SO THAT IF  TALKS GO WELL, AND THERE IS 
         WILLINGNESS ON BOTH SIDES A DEAL COULD BE WORKED OUT ON 
         SOME OF THE CONTENTIOUS ISSUES IF  NOT  ON KASHMIR. 

                         //  END ACT //

POLITICAL AUTHOR BABANI SENGUPTA OFFERS A SIMILAR VIEW. IN THE 
SHORT TERM HE EXPECTS LITTLE FROM THE RESUMPTION OF THE 
FOREIGN-SECRETARY TALKS. BUT HE SAYS OVER TIME THERE COULD BE 
IMPORTANT RESULTS.

                       //  SENGUPTA ACT //

         IT DOES  NOT  MEAN THAT THERE WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ANY 
         AGREEMENT ON KASHMIR, FAR FROM THAT. BUT WHAT WE CAN 
         EXPECT IS A MORE RELAXED ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN THE TWO 
         COUNTRIES AND A CONTINUING LONG-TERM DIALOGUE ON 
         KASHMIR. AND THE DIALOGUE ON OTHER ISSUES, WHICH WILL BE
         MORE PRODUCTIVE.

                          // END ACT //

THOSE OTHER ISSUES INCLUDE TRADE AND FINANCE. BUSINESS LEADERS IN
BOTH PAKISTAN AND INDIA HAVE ADVOCATED OPEN TRADE TIES. THERE IS 
ALREADY AN ESTIMATED TWO-BILLION DOLLARS IN ILLEGAL TRADE BETWEEN
THE NATIONS. BY LEGALIZING IT BOTH GOVERNMENTS WOULD GAIN 
MUCH-NEEDED REVENUE AND THE PSYCHOLOGICAL CLIMATE BETWEEN THE 
NATIONS WOULD BE EASED AS WELL. 

/// REST OPT  /// WEDNESDAY'S MEETING WILL BE THE SECOND BETWEEN 
MR. VAJPAYEE AND MR. SHARIF.  THE LEADERS MET IN JULY AT A 
REGIONAL SUMMIT IN SRI LANKA BUT LATER THE SIDES ACCUSED EACH 
OTHER OF REMAINING STUCK IN OLD POSITIONS. (SIGNED)

NEB/DB/PLM

22-Sep-98 6:28 AM EDT (1028 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.