DATE=10/19/98 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-41628 TITLE=PAK-INDIA TALKS BYLINE=DOUGLAS BAKSHIAN DATELINE=ISLAMABAD CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: POLITICAL ANALYSTS SAY THE PEACE TALKS BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN, THAT ENDED SUNDAY, DID LITTLE TO EASE GLOBAL CONCERNS ABOUT THE NUCLEAR THREAT IN SOUTH ASIA. BUT THE TWO OLD ENEMIES ARE AT LEAST KEEPING A DIPLOMATIC CHANNEL OPEN TO RESOLVE THEIR DIFFERENCES. CORRESPONDENT DOUGLAS BAKSHIAN REPORTS FROM OUR ISLAMABAD BUREAU. TEXT: THE TALKS ENDED WITH A BRIEF STATEMENT SAYING THE SIDES HAD UNDERSCORED THEIR COMMITMENT TO REDUCE THE RISK OF CONFLICT BY BUILDING MUTUAL CONFIDENCE IN THE NUCLEAR AND CONVENTIONAL FIELDS. PARVAIZ HOODBHOY, A PHYSICS PROFESSOR AT ISLAMABAD'S QUAID-I-AZAM UNIVERSITY WHO CLOSELY MONITORS THE NUCLEAR ISSUE, SAYS THE TALKS ARE A POSITIVE STEP EVEN IF THEY DID NOT PRODUCE IMMEDIATE RESULTS. // HOODBHOY ACT // ANY KIND OF TALKS AIMED AT REDUCING TENSIONS BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN ARE TO BE WELCOMED. HOWEVER, ONE SHOULD NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH BECAUSE THERE IS A FIXITY (RIGIDITY) OF POSITIONS ON BOTH SIDES. // END ACT // PROFESSOR HOODBHOY SAYS THE SIDES ARE STUCK IN THEIR OLD POSITIONS ON DEFENSE MATTERS AND KASHMIR, A DISPUTED TERRITORY OVER WHICH THEY HAVE FOUGHT TWO WARS. HE SAYS THIS MAKES DIPLOMATIC MOVEMENT IN ANY AREA DIFFICULT. THE SIDES WERE NOT ABLE TO AGREE ON THE SMALLEST CONFIDENCE BUILDING MEASURES DURING THEIR TALKS. DEFENSE EXPERTS HAD EXPECTED INDIA AND PAKISTAN WOULD REVIVE A HOTLINE BETWEEN THEIR PRIME MINISTERS AND A SIMILAR LINK BETWEEN MILITARY HEADQUARTERS OF EACH NATION -- BUT THIS DID NOT OCCUR. THE NUCLEAR TESTS CONDUCTED BY INDIA AND PAKISTAN IN MAY RAISED INTERNATIONAL CONCERNS ABOUT TENSIONS IN THE REGION. PROFESSOR HOODBHOY AND MANY OTHER ANALYSTS FEEL THE COUNTRIES ONLY ENTERED INTO PEACE TALKS BECAUSE THEY WERE UNDER STRONG INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE. // HOODBHOY ACT // IT IS JUST THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS GENERATED SUFFICIENT PRESSURE UPON BOTH THE GOVERNMENTS SO THAT THEY HAVE COME TOGETHER AND MADE MOTIONS ABOUT TALKING WITH EACH OTHER. THAT IS GOOD, AND I THINK THAT POINTS TO THE USEFULNESS OF PRESSURE UPON BOTH OF THESE GOVERNMENTS. OF COURSE PAKISTAN IS FAR MORE VULNERABLE THAN INDIA IS, BUT INDIA TOO MUST RESPOND TO WHAT THE REST OF THE WORLD SAYS. // END ACT // PROFESSOR HOODBHOY SAYS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PROGRESS IN THE NUCLEAR AREA. HE SAYS IF INDIA WOULD AGREE TO THE COMPREHENSIVE TEST-BAN TREATY AND ANOTHER PACT COVERING MATERIAL USED TO MAKE NUCLEAR WEAPONS -- PAKISTAN WOULD FOLLOW SUIT. // HOODBHOY ACT // PAKISTAN NOW IS IN A FAIRLY DESPERATE STATE IN ECONOMIC TERMS. ANY MOVEMENT ON THE PART OF INDIA WOULD BE SEIZED UPON BY THE NAWAZ SHARIF GOVERNMENT AS A POSITIVE MOVEMENT AND PAKISTAN WOULD GO MUCH FURTHER ALONG THAT WAY. SO I WOULD SAY THAT SHOULD INDIA AGREE NOT ONLY TO THE C-T-B-T, BUT THE F-M-C-T (FISSILE MATERIAL TREATY), PAKISTAN WOULD IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW SUIT. // END ACT // WHILE THE FOREIGN SECRETARY TALKS BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN DO NOT RESUME UNTIL FEBRUARY, LOWER-LEVEL TALKS ARE SCHEDULED FOR NOVEMBER ON TOPICS INCLUDING CULTURAL EXCHANGES AND ECONOMIC COOPERATION. ANALYSTS ARE WATCHING THESE NEGOTIATIONS CLOSELY FOR ANY MOVEMENT. THEY SAY OPENING UP TRADE BETWEEN THE COUNTRIES WOULD BE ONE STEP TOWARD IMPROVING OVERALL RELATIONS. (SIGNED) NEB/RAE 19-Oct-98 7:31 AM EDT (1131 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .