AFTER THE IRANIAN TEST

(Commentary by Ze'ev Schiff, "Ha'aretz", Jul 29, 1998, p. B1)

In contrast to the initial publications which followed the first test of
the Iranian Shihab-3 missile, which determined that the test had failed,
American and other experts have now found that the test was successful,
perhaps even very successful. Due to the missile's mid-air explosion,
which was picked up by American satellites, most of the world press rushed
to proclaim the test an Iranian failure.

Later, following careful examination of the initial technical data, the
experts reached the opposite conclusion. Regarding the Middle East, the
Iranian missile project has been making steady progress. It was only a
test of the missile's first stage, but it is only a question of time
before Iran will be able to cover Israel and most of the Middle East
within the range of its missiles.

The various publications also incorrectly attributed the missile's
technology solely to North Korea, and possibly to China as well. The
Shihab-3, like Pakistan's Ghauri missile which was tested last April, is
indeed based on the North Korean Nodong. But what determined the missile's
successful test is Russian technology, which Iran purchased from Russian
firms. It is reasonable to assume that the Iranian test was carried out
with the close cooperation, and in the presence, of Russian missile
experts. They also helped the Iranians with the engine's preliminary
ground tests.

Shihab-3's first test flight was on 22 July, at 06:00, from a firing range
south of Teheran. At launch, the missile was detected by two or three
American satellites, permanently stationed above in space. It is not clear
if the Americans or other secret services had prior information on the
expected test. After the missile was launched and stabilized, the missile
flew approximately two minutes to the south-east and then exploded in
flight.

The explosion does not mean failure. It should be remembered that
Shihab-3's first test firing was intended to determine the launch and
flight capabilities of its first stages, and nothing more. The aerial
explosion could have been caused by a preset self-destruct device placed
on the missile. If so, this speaks well of the Iranian experts'
capabilities. Even if the explosion was not predetermined for that stage
of the flight, this does not belie the success of the first test, which
was not intended to test its flight path to the end of its range or its
weapons payload capability.

It should be noted that until now, only there have been only three test
firings of the Nodong missile and its improved Pakistani and Iranian
descendants. The first test in North Korea was on 22 May 1993. The second
was in Pakistan in April 1998, and the last test was the Shihab-3 in Iran
on 22 July 1998. After the Iranians study the results of their test, there
will certainly be further tests. Israel should be particularly interested
in the missile's range and its weapons payload.

The question of timing remains open. Why was the Iranian test carried out
precisely at the moment of a certain relaxation in American-Iranian
relations and when both sides want to open a new chapter in their
relationship? There are two hypotheses. One is that the development of the
Shihab-3, like the non-conventional weapons systems, is not under the
authority of President Khatami, who is interested in improving relations
with Washington. Those who direct the weapons development are more
conservative. They do not care that it will disrupt Khatami's approach to
the Americans, and it is possible that they even wish it to do so.

The second possibility is that precisely because the stage of
Iranian-American negotiations is approaching, there exists an Iranian
interest to quickly determine certain facts. According to this scenario,
Iran is interested in placing on the table -- right now -- a missile that
covers large parts of the Middle East. The Iranians may thus say that the
missile is a fait accompli, which will be very difficult to cancel like
the Iraqi-Egyptian-Argentinian Badr-2000 missile project which was
canceled many years ago under American pressure. In any case, for Israel
this means that the pessimistic evaluations of the Iranian missile project
have become a reality.

.


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