DATE=2/12/99 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-42605 TITLE=IRAN'S INTERNAL STRUGGLE BYLINE= ED WARNER DATELINE= WASHINGTON CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: THE DEMOCRATIC GENIE IS OUT OF THE BOTTLE, SAID A SPEAKER AT A RECENT WASHINGTON CONFERENCE ON IRAN (THURS., FEB. 11). BUT HE AND OTHERS WARNED IT WOULD BE AN IRANIAN DEMOCRACY AND NOT LIKE OTHERS. THE OUTSIDE WORLD SHOULD TREAT IT WITH RESPECT BUT ALSO WITH CAUTION AS IRAN STRUGGLES TO RECONCILE ITS VERSION OF ISLAM WITH FREEDOM. VOA'S ED WARNER REPORTS. TEXT: IRAN IS NOW HAVING A REMARKABLE ENCOUNTER WITH GRASS ROOTS DEMOCRACY, SAID MOHSEN MILANI, PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SINCE MOHAMMED KHATAMI WAS ELECTED PRESIDENT IN 1997 WITH A LARGE POPULAR VOTE, IRAN HAS BEEN MOVING IN A DEMOCRATIC DIRECTION. BUT IN ITS OWN IRANIAN WAY, CAUTIONED PROFESSOR MILANI IN HIS SPEECH AT A CONFERENCE HELD BY THE CENTER FOR MUSLIM-CHRISTIAN UNDERSTANDING AND THE MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE, TWO PRIVATE RESEARCH ORGANIZATIONS IN WASHINGTON: // MILANI ACT // SINCE THE DAWN OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION, A PRIMITIVE BUT PROMISING ELITE PLURALISM - WHICH IS NOT TO BE CONFUSED WITH DEMOCRACY - HAS BEEN DEVELOPING IN IRAN, WHICH IS BASED ON INTENSE RIVALRY AMONG COMPETING FACTIONS WITHIN THE GOVERNING ELITES. BECAUSE POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS HAVE GAINED CONSIDERABLE AUTONOMY, FACTIONS DO ENJOY SOME ROOM TO EXPRESS THEIR VIEWS AND INFLUENCE POLITICAL OUTCOMES. // END ACT // THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT MR. KHATAMI TO POWER, SAID PROFESSOR MILANI. WHEN HE RAN FOR PRESIDENT, THE VOTER TURNOUT WAS MUCH HIGHER THAN IN MORE MATURE DEMOCRACIES - A MILESTONE ON THE PATH TO A CIVIL SOCIETY IN IRAN. IN OFFICE, PRESIDENT KHATAMI HAS LIVED UP TO HIS PROMISE, EXTENDING FREEDOM IN IRAN AS BEST HE CAN. BUT HIS POWERS ARE STRICTLY LIMITED AND SUBORDINATE TO IRAN'S SPIRITUAL LEADER, AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI, WHO CONTINUES TO ASSERT ISLAMIST RULE. CONTRARY TO WESTERN OPINION, SAID PROFESSOR MILANI, KHAMENEI HAS ALLOWED SOME OF THE PRESIDENT'S REFORMS, BUT HE IS UNDER INTENSE PRESSURE FROM THE CONSERVATIVE CLERICS WHO FEAR KHATAMI MAY BE ANOTHER GORBACHEV AND LEAD TO THE COLLAPSE OF THE ISLAMIST REPUBLIC. IT IS NO EASY TASK TO RECONCILE FAITH WITH LIBERTY, SAID PROFESSOR MILANI. SO PATIENCE IS NEEDED AS IRAN'S TWO LEADERS STRUGGLE FOR COMPROMISE: // MILANI ACT // THE FACT THAT THESE TWO HAVE COOPERATED IN THE PAST TWO YEARS SPEAKS VOUMES ABOUT THE MATURITY OF THAT SYSTEM. KHATAMI HAS ALREADY ACHIEVED MUCH UNDER HIS TENURE. IT IS NOW TIME TO CONSOLIDATE WHAT HAS BEEN ACHIEVED RATHER THAN ACCELERATE THE PROCESS OF REFORM WHICH COULD RESULT IN A POWERFUL REACTION BY THE CONSERVATIVES, WHICH IN TURN CAN REVERSE THIS PROMISING TREND. // END ACT // IRAN'S DEALINGS WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD WILL BE NO EASIER TO RESOLVE, SAID ANOTHER CONFERENCE SPEAKER, GARY SICK, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF GULF/2000, AN INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH PROJECT ON DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PERSIAN GULF. WHILE THE UNITED STATES NEEDS TO RECONSIDER ITS POLICY TOWARD IRAN, MR. SICK SAID IT SHOULD NOT EXPECT ANY DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT IN RELATIONS. HE BELIEVES IRAN VIEWS FOREIGN POLICY LIKE A BAZAAR - HARD BARGAINING FOR MOMENTARY ADVANTAGE: // SICK ACT // WE HAVE SEEN EXAMPLES RECENTLY OF THE WAY IRAN BEHAVES WHEN IT FEELS IT HAS A LITTLE BIT OF LEVERAGE. LOOK AT HOW THEY REACTED TO THE DEATH OF THE KING OF JORDAN, TAKING A VERY TOUGH, NASTY RESPONSE THAT "WE ARE NOT GOING TO GO (TO THE FUNERAL) BECAUSE YOU SAID THAT MAYBE IRAN IS A THREAT TO SOME OF ITS NEIGHBORS IN THE PERSIAN GULF." IRAN AT ITS WORST IS STIFF NECKED, EXCESSIVELY PROUD AND TOUCHY. IT EXPLOITS THE WORST OF THE BAZAAR MENTALITY. // END ACT // BUT IRAN IS MADE TOO VILLAINOUS BY THE UNITED STATES, SAID FRED HALLIDAY, PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AT THE LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS. HE SAID IN GENERAL EUROPEANS FIND LESS EVIDENCE OF SUPPORT OF TERRORISM IN IRAN AND INDEED SHARE SOME OF TEHRAN'S CRITICISM OF THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS. NO DOUBT IRAN IS SEEKING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, SAID PROFESSOR HALLIDAY, BUT NOT WITHOUT REASON: // HALLIDAY ACT // ONE HAS TO LOOK AT IT NOT JUST IN AN ARAB-ISRAELI CONTEXT, AS IS TOO FREQUENTLY DONE, BUT IN A REGIONAL CONTEXT. IRAN HAS IRAQ ON ITS WESTERN FRONTIER, AND IT IS IRAQ AFTER ALL, WHICH KILLED A MILLION IRANIANS IN THAT WAR (1980-1988) AND WHICH WOULD GO TO WAR WITH IRAN AGAIN IF AND WHEN IT COULD. IRAN BORDERS PAKISTAN, WHICH HAS NOW ACQUIRED NUCLEAR WEAPONS, AND BEEN ALLOWED TO DO SO, ALONG WITH INDIA, BY AN INDULGENT AND IRRESPONSIBLE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. // END ACT // UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, SAID PROFESSOR HALLIDAY, ANY NATION WOULD SEEK A DETERRENT. CONFIDENCE BUILDING MEASURES ARE NEEDED TO REACH A REGIONAL SECURITY ARRANGEMENT, OF WHICH IRAN WOULD BE A PART. HE SAID IT IS TOO PROMINENT A PART OF THE REGION TO BE SHUNNED OR EXCLUDED. (SIGNED) NEB/PT 12-Feb-99 5:55 PM EST (2255 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .