DATE=7/13/99 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-43864 TITLE=IRAN STUDENTS BYLINE=NICK SIMEONE DATELINE=WASHINGTON CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: FOR THE SIXTH DAY TUESDAY, IRAN'S CAPITAL HAS BEEN THE SCENE OF ANTI-GOVERNMENT DEMONSTRATIONS BY THOUSANDS OF STUDENTS DEMANDING REFORM. AS CORRESPONDENT NICK SIMEONE REPORTS, IT DEPENDS WHO YOU TALK TO AS TO WHETHER THESE PROTESTS ARE A MAJOR DEVELOPMENT THREATENING IRAN'S GOVERNMENT ... OR JUST A MINOR EVENT SOON FORGOTTEN. TEXT: FROM ALL ACCOUNTS, THESE DEMONSTRATIONS MARK THE MOST SERIOUS, SUSTAINED SHOW OF OPPOSITION AGAINST THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT SINCE THE REVOLUTION 20 YEARS AGO THAT SWEPT THE SHAH FROM POWER AND USHERED IN ISLAMIC RULE. REPORTS EMERGING FROM THE COUNTRY INDICATE THE DEMONSTRATIONS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY VIOLENT AND HAVE SPREAD, WITH OTHER SEGMENTS OF SOCIETY JOINING IN. ELAHEH AMIR-ENTEZAM, WHOSE HUSBAND, ABBAS, HAS BEEN IN JAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PAST 20 YEARS, WAS AMONG THE DEMONSTRATORS. // AMIR-ENTEZAM ACT // ORDINARY PEOPLE JOINED IT. I CAN TELL YOU AT THE PEAK, WHICH WAS TWO DAYS AGO, ALL TOGETHER MAYBE THERE WERE OVER 15- TO 20-THOUSAND PROTESTING AND USING SLOGANS LIKE "FREEDOM OF SPEECH, FREEDOM OF OPINION" AND ALL THE THINGS THAT ACTUALLY 20 YEARS AGO WERE THE BASIS FOR THE TOPPLING OF THE OLD REGIME AND ESTABLISHMENT OF THE ISLAMIC REGIME IN IRAN. // END ACT // CROWDS OF STUDENTS HAVE IGNORED GOVERNMENT WARNINGS NOT TO CONTINUE THEIR PROTESTS. SOME IN THE OPPOSITION, INCLUDING REZA PAHLAVI, THE EXILED SON OF THE LATE SHAH, BELIEVE THESE PROTESTS MAY BE PUSHING IRAN TO A TURNING POINT. // PAHLAVI ACT // WHAT WE ARE NOW WITNESSING IS PRACTICALLY A NEW PAGE IN THE POLITICAL EVOLUTION OF MY COUNTRY. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WAS TO BE ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF YEARS OF FRUSTRATION AND LACK OF POLITICAL FREEDOM THAT THE IRANIAN PEOPLE HAD TO FACE AND TODAY WE SEE A NEW GENERATION THROUGH ITS STUDENT MOVEMENTS THAT ARE EXPRESSING THE ASPIRATIONS THAT OUR NATION HAS. IT'S NOT DISSIMILAR TO EVENTS THAT WE SAW UNFOLD IN THE EASTERN BLOC COUNTRIES AS WELL AS IN CHINA AND OTHER PLACES IN THE WORLD AND NOW IT'S HAPPENING IN TEHRAN AND OTHER MAJOR CITIES IN IRAN AS WELL // END ACT // IRAN'S MAIN OPPOSITION GROUP, THE NATIONAL COUNCIL OF RESISTANCE, IS IN TOUCH WITH PEOPLE WHO SAY AS MANY AS 40 STUDENTS HAVE HAVE BEEN KILLED IN CLASHES WITH POLICE AND PRO-GOVERNMENT VIGILANTES. THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT PUTS THE FIGURE AT JUST TWO AND BLAMES THE UNITED STATES FOR FOMENTING THE PROTESTS, A CHARGE THE U-S STATE DEPARTMENT DENIED TUESDAY. MANY OF THE STUDENT PROTESTERS WERE NOT EVEN ALIVE OR TOO YOUNG TO REMEMBER THE STUDENT-LED REVOLUTION 20 YEARS AGO THAT SWEPT THE AYATOLLAH KHOMENEI AND ISLAMIC RULE TO POWER. GARY SICK, WHO AT THE TIME SERVED ON PRESIDENT CARTER'S NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL, BELIEVES IT'S MUCH TOO EARLY TO LABEL THESE STUDENTS THE LEADERS OF A NEW REVOLUTION -- ONE THAT IS IN FAVOR OF A MORE MODERATE AND PRO-WESTERN LEADERSHIP. // SICK ACT // THE ATTACKS ON THE LEGITIMACY OF THE LEADER AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI HAVE BEEN VERY STRIKING AND THAT REALLY IS A FIRST. THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED BEFORE. IN THE END, IT'S VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT HOW IT WILL PLAY ITSELF OUT. BUT I DON'T DETECT A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF POPULAR SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING LIKE A MAJOR OVERTHROW OF THE GOVERNMENT AND MY GUESS IS THAT IN THE END THIS WILL SEND A VERY, VERY POWERFUL WARNING TO THE HARD-LINE SECURITY FORCES THAT THEY CANNOT ACT WITH IMPUNITY. // END ACT // GROUPS WHICH SUPPORT THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT ARE PLANNING THEIR OWN DEMONSTRATION IN TEHRAN WEDNESDAY TO COUNTER EVENTS OF THE PAST SIX DAYS. (SIGNED) NEB/NJS/RRM 13-Jul-99 3:56 PM EDT (1956 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .