DATE=7/14/99 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-43880 TITLE=CLASH IN IRAN BYLINE= ED WARNER DATELINE= WASHINGTON CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: COUNTER DEMONSTRATORS HAVE POURED INTO THE STREETS OF TEHRAN IN RESPONSE TO STUDENT PROTESTS. THE CONTENDING FORCES ILLUSTRATE IRAN'S DIVISION BETWEEN ULTRA CONSERVATIVE CLERICS CLINGING TO POWER AND REFORMERS SEEKING A MORE OPEN, ACCOUNTABLE SOCIETY. VOA'S ED WARNER REPORTS SOME VIEWS OF THE CLASH. TEXT: THE PROTESTS AGAINST CLERICAL RULE IN IRAN MAY BE UNSTOPPABLE, SAYS KENNETH TIMMERMAN, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE FOUNDATION FOR DEMOCRACY IN IRAN, A WASHINGTON-BASED ORGANIZATION. HE BELIEVES THEY HAVE OVERTAKEN PRESIDENT MOHAMMED KHATAMI'S MORE CAUTIOUS REFORM: // TIMMERMAN ACT // PRESIDENT KHATAMI HAS COME OUT VERY MUCH AGAINST THE PROTESTS. HE HAS ASKED THE STUDENTS TO GO HOME. HE HAS SAID THEY ARE BEING LED BY PEOPLE WITH EVIL DESIGNS. I THINK IT IS VERY CLEAR PRESIDENT KHATAMI IS A MEMBER OF THE RULING CLERICAL ELITE. HIS INTERESTS ARE IN PRESERVING CLERICAL RULE. HE DOES NOT WANT TO SEE THESE DEMONSTRATIONS CONTINUE. // END ACT // HE MAY HAVE GOOD REASON NOT TO WANT THE DEMONSTRATIONS TO CONTINUE, SAYS ERVAND ABRAHAMIAN, PROFESSOR OF HISTORY AT CITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK. IF THE PROTESTS GO TOO FAR, A REACTION MAY FOLLOW THAT UNDERMINES REFORM: // ABRAHAMIAN ACT // WHAT THE ULTRA-CONSERVATIVES HOPE IS THAT THE STUDENT FRUSTRATION WILL FLOW INTO ULTRA-RADICAL CHANNELS, CALLING BASICALLY FOR THE OVERTHROW OF THE SYSTEM, DENUNCIATION OF THE WHOLE REVOLUTION. IF THOSE SORT OF DEMANDS ARE EXPRESSED - EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT THE DOMINANT VOICE AMONG THE STUDENTS - THIS WILL BE USED BY THE ULTRA-CONSERVATIVES AS AN EXCUSE TO CLAMP DOWN. // END ACT // PROFESSOR ABRAHAMIAN SAYS THE REPRESSION COULD BE AS HARSH AS THE CHINESE CRACKDOWN ON DEMONSTRATORS IN TIANANMEN SQUARE IN 1989. THE CASUALTIES MIGHT NOT ONLY BE STUDENT DEMONSTRATORS BUT REFORMERS AS WELL, INCLUDING PRESIDENT KHATAMI. TIME IS NOT ON THE SIDE OF CLERICAL RULE, SAYS PROFESSOR ABRAHAMIAN. ITS BASE HAS STEADILY ERODED AND MAY NOW COMPRISE ONLY TEN PER CENT OF THE POPULATION. BUT ITS SUPPORTERS STILL RUN THE SECURITY AND INTELLIGENCE SERVICES, WHICH ARE DOING THEIR BEST TO SABOTAGE REFORM. PROFESSOR ABRAHAMIAN SAYS A KIND OF SHADOW GOVERNMENT CARRIES OUT ASSASSINATIONS OF IRANIAN DISSIDENTS AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT ARREST OF THIRTEEN IRANIAN JEWS FOR ALLEGEDLY SPYING FOR ISRAEL AND THE UNITED STATES. SINCE THE RULING CLERICS ARE MAINLY CONCERNED WITH DOMESTIC POLICY, THEY HAVE PERMITTED PRESIDENT KHATAMI A RELATIVELY FREE HAND IN FOREIGN RELATIONS, AND HE HAS MADE USE OF IT - MENDING TIES WITH SAUDI ARABIA AND THE OTHER GULF STATES AND CURTAILING EFFORTS TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION. IRAN HANGS IN THE BALANCE, SAYS PROFESSOR ABRAHAMIAN: // ABRAHAMIAN ACT // DOES LEGITIMACY OF POWER COME FROM THE DIVINE RIGHT OF CLERICS TO RULE OR DOES IT COME FROM THE RIGHT OF THE PEOPLE TO RULE? THIS SORT OF TENSION BETWEEN THE TWO BASES OF LEGITIMACY HAS BEEN THERE SINCE THE REVOLUTION, AND IT HAS BEEN BACK AND FORTH. SINCE (AYATOLLAH) KHOMEINI DIED. CLEARLY THE DIVINE RIGHT OF THE CLERICS HAS WEAKENED BECAUSE HIS CHARISMA IS NOT THERE. // END ACT // IT IS A LIFE AND DEATH STRUGGLE, SAYS PROFESSOR ABRAHAMIAN. IF THE ULTRA-CONSERVATIVES LOSE THEIR GRIP ON POWER, THEY KNOW THEIR IDEOLOGY MAY BE DOOMED. BUT HE HASTENS TO ADD THE IRANIAN PEOPLE ARE IN NO MOOD FOR ANOTHER REVOLUTION. ONE WAS ENOUGH, FOR WHICH THEY ARE STILL PAYING THE PRICE. IF THE VIOLENCE GETS OUT OF HAND, MODERATES MIGHT DESERT THE PROTESTS AND WITHDRAW FROM POLITICS ALTOGETHER - PREFERRING THE STATUS QUO, AS BAD AS IT IS, TO UPHEAVAL. (SIGNED) NEB/PT 14-Jul-99 4:56 PM EDT (2056 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .