ACCESSION NUMBER:00000

FILE ID:97012701.NNE

DATE:01/27/97

TITLE:27-01-97  MUCH REMAINS UNKNOWN OF IRAQI WEAPONS PROGRAMS, SPECIALIST SAYS



TEXT:

(Former UNSCOM monitor reviews lessons learned) (440)

By Rick Marshall

USIA Staff Writer



Washington -- Despite the destruction of considerable Iraqi weaponry

and materials over the past six years, much remains unknown about

Iraq's current chemical, biological and missile programs, David Kay, a

former member of the United Nations Special Commission on Iraq

(UNSCOM), told a gathering at the Middle East Institute January 27.



Since it was established after the Gulf War by the U.N. Security

Council, UNSCOM has carried out more than 600 inspections and

discovered a far more sophisticated nuclear, biological and chemical

(NBC) weapons capability in Iraq than virtually anyone had expected,

Kay observed.



At the same time, Baghdad has issued more than 20 "full and final

declarations" about its weapons programs. None of them, Kay noted, can

be considered either full or final. For example, there is no evidence

to support Iraqi claims that it has destroyed its anthrax stocks.

Similarly, he added, UNSCOM believes Iraq may still be hiding as many

as two dozen SCUD missiles.



Looking back on the years immediately preceding the Iraqi invasion of

Kuwait, Kay faulted the West for underestimating the sophistication of

Iraq's technical and scientific base and for looking the other way

when Baghdad used chemical weapons on Iranian soldiers during the

Iran-Iraq War.



Following the Gulf War, however, UNSCOM was given "unprecedented

rights" to conduct inspections within Iraq. Working directly with the

Security Council made it possible to avoid the complications of

working with the U.N. Secretary General's office, and in Rolf Ekeus,

UNSCOM found a "diplomat in the true sense of the word," Kay said of

the Swede who has led the Commission since its creation.



Kay, who is now a vice president at Science Applications International

Corp., also praised Thomas Pickering, then the U.S. chief

representative at the U.N., for his "superb" work in forging a

consensus in the Security Council for imposing a sanctions regime on

Iraq.



Still, despite the uncertainty about Saddam Hussein's intentions and

Iraq's continuing NBC capabilities, Kay expressed doubt that sanctions

will remain on Iraq for more than a few years. UNSCOM's political

support "is beginning to recede," he noted, and it is likely to prove

exceedingly difficult to monitor Iraq effectively once oil revenues

begin to flow into the country again.



"There is no alternative today to a strong U.S. policy," Kay

concluded, pointing to the uneasy rivalries among the states which

border the Gulf and the near certainty that Iraq has maintained a

"substantial program" of missiles and biological missile weapons.

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