DATE=1/3/97
TYPE=CLOSEUP
NUMBER=4-09584
TITLE=IRAQ POWER STRUGGLE
BYLINE=DEBORAH COOPER
TELEPHONE=619-1874
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
EDITOR=NANCY SMART
CONTENT= INSERTS IN AUDIO SERVICES
INTRO: SIX WEEKS AFTER AN ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT ON SADDAM
HUSSEIN'S SON UDAY, U.S. OFFICIALS HAVE TAKEN NOTE OF
THE EXISTENCE OF A POWER STRUGGLE WITHIN IRAQ'S RULING
CIRCLE. THIS COMES AS OBSERVERS IN THE REGION SAY IRAQ
HAS STEP UP ITS MILITARY ACTIVITIES IN THE SOUTH. VOA'S
DEBORAH COOPER REPORTS.
TEXT: UDAY HUSSEIN, THE ELDER SON OF IRAQI PRESIDENT SADDAM
HUSSEIN, IS REPORTED TO STILL BE HOSPITALIZED AFTER HE
WAS SHOT WHILE DRIVING AROUND BAGHDAD IN HIS RED
PORSCHE. IN A MEETING WITH REPORTERS LAST WEEK, WHITE
HOUSE SPOKESMAN MIKE MCCURRY SAID THE IRAQI REGIME HAS
GROWN MORE UNSTABLE SINCE THE ATTEMPT ON THE LIFE OF THE
IRAQI LEADER'S SON. AND REND FRANKE OF THE IRAQ
FOUNDATION, A WASHINGTON-BASED RESEARCH ORGANIZATION,
AGREES WITH THE WHITE HOUSE ASSESSMENT.
TAPE: CUT ONE - FRANKE
"HE'S VERY VULNERABLE, HE'S VERY UNSTABLE, BUT IT'S
REALLY A BATTLE OF STRENGTH AND WILLS BETWEEN THE FORCES
OUTSIDE THE FORTRESS WHICH BY NOW INCLUDES THE ARMY,
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REPUBLICAN GUARD, THE AIR FORCE,
THE EXTENDED CLAN, CERTAINLY THE BAATH PARTY APPARATUS.
SO ALL THESE FORCES ARE ARRAYED AGAINST SADDAM BUT HE
STILL MAINTAINS HIS FORTRESS BASED ON A HARD CORE OF
SEVERAL OF TENS OF THOUSAND OF PEOPLE, PERHAPS AS MANY
AS 40 TO 50 THOUSAND WHO'S BUSINESS IT IS TO PROTECT HIM
AND HIS IMMEDIATE FAMILY. NOW, EVENTUALLY, EVEN THAT
CORE HAD BEEN PENETRATED BECAUSE UDAY'S SHOOTING, THE
ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT AGAINST UDAY INDICATES THAT THERE
ARE PEOPLE ON THE INSIDE, TRUSTED PEOPLE WHO KNOW UDAY'S
ITINERARY, PERHAPS ESCORT HIM, EVEN THOSE PEOPLE ARE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEFECTION AND TO TURNING AGAINST THE
REGIME."
TEXT: REND FRANKE OF THE IRAQ FOUNDATION SAYS THE RULING
CIRCLE IN IRAQ ONCE EMBRACED SADDAM'S ENTIRE EXTENDED
FAMILY, BUT TODAY IS ALMOST SOLELY BASED ON HIS
IMMEDIATE FAMILY.
TAPE: CUT TWO - FRANKE
"THE PROCESS OF CHANNELING POWER INTO THESE NARROWER AND
NARROWER CIRCLES HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR SOME TIME. FOR
EXAMPLE, IN THE 1980S WE HAD THE EXTENDED FAMILY IN
POWER WITH SADDAM'S HALF BROTHERS, COUSINS AND CLAN
MEMBERS PART OF THE RULING STRUCTURE AND WITH A GOOD BIT
OF CONTROL OVER THE COUNTRY. GRADUALLY AFTER 1988, AFTER
THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR SADDAM BEGAN TO WINNOW OUT A LOT OF
THE MEMBERS OF THE EXTENDED FAMILY THAT HE DID NOT
PARTICULARLY TRUST OR THAT COULD BE RIVAL TO HIM
EVENTUALLY OR RIVALS TO HIS SONS."
TEXT: AFTER THE GULF WAR ENDED IN 1991 THE PROCESS
ACCELERATED, AND ACCORDING TO MS. FRANKE BY 1993 IT
BECAME CLEAR THAT THE ONLY THREE PEOPLE WHO HAD REAL
POWER IN IRAQ WERE SADDAM AND HIS TWO SONS.
TAPE: CUT THREE - FRANKE
"SO THERE HAS BEEN THIS SHARING OF ALL POWER WITHIN THE
STATE BETWEEN THE TWO BROTHERS AND AT THE TOP IS THE
FATHER. THIS MEANS THAT A LARGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WITHIN
THE FAMILY HAVE EFFECTIVELY BEEN EXCLUDED FROM ANY KIND
OF POWER OR AUTHORITY. AND THE VISIBLE SIGNS OF THIS
EXCLUSION CAME WHEN SADDAM AND HIS SONS CLASHED WITH
SADDAM'S BROTHERS."
TEXT: IN 1995 WHEN SADDAM'S BROTHERS WERE IN CHARGE OF
SECURITY AND THE INTERIOR MINISTRY, THEY WERE KICKED OUT
OF OFFICE AND IN A VERY DRAMATIC WAY CAME TO BLOWS WITH
SADDAM'S SONS. UDAY SHOT ONE OF THEM IN THE LEG. BUT
AS REND FRANKE POINTS OUT, THE MOST DRAMATIC INCIDENT
WAS THE DEFECTION TO JORDAN OF HUSSEIN KAMEL AND HIS
BROTHER SADDAM, BOTH SONS-IN-LAW OF THE IRAQI PRESIDENT.
TAPE: CUT FOUR - FRANKE
"THEY WENT TO JORDAN IN AUGUST, 1995. THEY THEN WERE
FOOLISH ENOUGH TO RETURN TO IRAQ IN FEBRUARY, 1996, AND
THEY WERE ALL GUNNED DOWN AND KILLED IN THEIR HOUSES. SO
WHAT WE'RE LOOKING AT IS A STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT FACTIONS OF SADDAM'S CLAN AND ESSENTIALLY YOU
HAVE SADDAM AND HIS SONS IN THE HEART OF THE MALESTORM
AND ALL THE OTHER FACTIONS OF THAT EXTENDED FAMILY
AGAINST SADDAM AND HIS SONS."
TEXT: EVEN SADDAM'S FIRST WIFE AND THE MOTHER OF HIS TWO SONS
IS REPORTED TO BE UNDER HOUSE ARREST. SHE IS BELIEVED
TO BE UNHAPPY WITH THE REGIME BECAUSE SHE BLAMES IT FOR
MAKING HER TWO DAUGHTERS WIDOWS. BY MOST ACCOUNTS, THE
SHOOTING OF UDAY WAS A FAMILY AFFAIR AND ANOTHER EXAMPLE
OF THE ATTEMPT BY MEMBERS OF SADDAM'S EXTENDED FAMILY TO
REGAIN AUTHORITY AND POWER.
WHEN COMMENTING ON THE POLITICAL POWER STRUGGLE IN IRAQ,
WHITE HOUSE SPOKESMAN MCCURRY SEEMED TO DOWNPLAY REPORTS
FROM KUWAIT OF UNUSUAL IRAQI MILITARY ACTIVITY NEAR ITS
BORDER WITH KUWAIT. ALTHOUGH THE KUWAITIS FEAR IRAQ MAY
BE PREPARING TO LAUNCH ANOTHER INVASION, U.S. OFFICIALS
SAYS THE OPERATIONS POSE NO THREAT AT THIS TIME. AS REND
FRANKE POINTS OUT, IRAQ FREQUENTLY REDEPLOYS TROOPS IN
THE SOUTH. AND, SHE ADDS, IN THE LAST SEVEN TO EIGHT
MONTHS SADDAM'S ARMY AND HIS REPUBLICAN GUARD HAVE
SUFFERED SIGNIFICANT PURGES IN ITS TOP RANKS.
TAPE: CUT FIVE - FRANKE
"AND THE RENEWED ARMY MOVEMENTS MAY BE, AS INDEED THE
PENTAGON INDICATED AS FAR AS THE AIR FORCE IS CONCERNED,
MAYBE A RETRAINING ACTIVITY FOR NEW OFFICERS THAT HAVE
ASSUMED HIGHER RANKS BECAUSE OF THESE PURGES. SO IT
COULD BE JUST BRINGING THE REPUBLICAN GUARD UP TO A
HIGHER STANDARD FOLLOWING THESE PURGES."
TEXT: THE CONSTANT ATTENTION TO THE STRENGTH AND READINESS OF
IRAQ'S MILITARY APPARATUS IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT TO THE
U.S. AND ITS FRIENDS IN THE REGION IN LIGHT OF THE
CHRONIC INSTABILITY OF SADDAM'S POLITICAL APPARATUS.
UNDER THE AUSPICES OF OPERATION SOUTHERN WATCH, THE U.S.
CONTINUES TO PATROL IRAQ'S SOUTHERN AIR SPACE. DESPITE
THE DEVASTATING DESTRUCTION OF MORE THAN HALF OF
SADDAM'S ARMED FORCES DURING THE 1991 GULF WAR, MILITARY
ANALYSTS SAY IRAQ IS STILL CONSIDERED CAPABLE OF
OVERRUNNING KUWAIT. (SIGNED)
04-Feb-97 7:36 AM EST (1236 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.