ACCESSION NUMBER:00000

FILE ID:97031005.NNE

DATE:03/10/97

TITLE:10-03-97  OPERATION NORTHERN WATCH HAS MAJOR OBJECTIVES IN N. IRAQ



TEXT:

(According to former State Department official) (600)

By David Pitts

USIA Staff Writer



Washington -- Operation Northern Watch, the successor to Operation

Provide Comfort in northern Iraq, "remains a very important

operation," according to Alan Makovsky, a senior fellow at the

Washington Institute for Near East Policy.



Makovsky spoke March 10 at a forum organized by the Congressional

Human Rights Caucus. He is a former State Department official whose

assignments included Southern Europe division chief, political advisor

to Operation Provide Comfort (the allied operation to provide

assistance and security to Kurds in northern Iraq following Operation

Desert Storm), and special advisor to the special Middle East

Coordinator.



Operation Northern Watch fulfills three major objectives, Makovsky

said. These are:



-- It maintains the no-fly-zone above the 36th parallel, a "key

element," in containing Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.



-- It provides the coalition "with useful reconnaissance," about the

movement of Iraqi troops in the north where many Kurds live.



-- It allows the coalition "to be aware of the human rights situation

in the north," so that "intervention may be considered," if conditions

deteriorate. It acts as a protective cover for the Kurds living there.



Makovsky also discussed relations between the Kurdistan Democratic

Party (KDP), active in northern Iraq, and the Patriotic Union of

Kurdistan (PUK), mostly active in southern Iraq. Despite a cease-fire

agreement between these feuding organizations, relations "are as

irreconcilable as ever," he said.



For his part, Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein is "actively wooing," the

KDP, Makovsky noted. "The Iraqi embargo on the KDP has largely ended."

In return, "it appears the KDP cooperates closely with Baghdad on

political decisions, but it is not totally beholden to Baghdad," he

stressed.



One beneficial consequence of this cooperation, however, is that "the

worst fears of an Iraqi takeover of the KDP-controlled area in the

northern part of the country have not come to pass," Makovsky said.



As far as the PUK is concerned, Makovsky said "there is far less

criticism by its leaders of Saddam than there was a year ago, largely

a result of the increase in intimidation," by the Iraqi government.

Iran "continues to supply the PUK with equipment, but also maintains

good ties with the KDP," he added. The area under PUK influence in the

south borders Iran.



Since September of last year, after the agreement between the two

organizations representing the Kurds in Iraq, the United States "has

been more actively involved in trying to work with them to help them

solve their problems," which only to work to the advantage of Saddam

Hussein, Makovsky remarked. "But most of the agreement remains

unimplemented," he said. Because of the ongoing rivalry, "the real

focus on the tyranny of Saddam is lost," he added.



David McDowell, a UK-based historian and Middle East expert, provided

a brief account of the history of the Kurdish presence in the region.

Iraq is just one of the countries Kurds inhabit. Other larger Kurdish

populations live in Iran, Turkey, Syria, and parts of the former

Soviet Union. They number approximately 30 million. About 75 percent

of the Kurds, however, live in the Zagros Mountains region, straddling

the Iraq-Iran border and much of eastern Anatolia.



Iraqi Kurds are provided with protection against air attack under the

provisions of Operation Northern Watch, but the experts said the

continuing political divisions in the organizations representing them

-- the KDP and the PUK -- only weakens their cause and plays into the

hands of the Iraqi government.

NNNN