DATE=  11/17/97

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

NUMBER=5-38110

TITLE=WHAT TO DO ABOUT IRAQ

BYLINE= ED WARNER

DATELINE= WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

VOICED AT: 



INTRODUCTION:  THE ATTACK ON THE TOURIST BUS IN UPPER EGYPT ADDS 

TO THE UNREST IN THE MIDDLE EAST, ALREADY SHAKEN OVER THE 

STANDOFF IN IRAQ ON U-N INSPECTIONS OF ITS PRESUMED WEAPONS OF 

MASS DESTRUCTION. OBSERVERS SAY MORE VIOLENCE CAN PROBABLY BE 

EXPECTED IN REACTION TO SADDAM HUSSEIN'S DEFIANCE AND THE STALLED

PEACE PROCESS. VOA'S ED WARNER ASKED SOME VETERAN ANALYSTS WHAT 

SHOULD BE DONE ABOUT IRAQ AND THE MIDDLE EAST IN GENERAL.



TEXT:  THERE IS WRIGGLE ROOM AT THE EDGES. THAT IS HOW STEVE 

YETIV, AUTHOR OF TWO BOOKS ON THE UNITED STATES IN THE PERSIAN 

GULF, DESCRIBES SADDAM HUSSEIN'S LATEST MANEUVER OVER THE U-N 

INSPECTIONS OF HIS WEAPONRY.



MR. YETIV, A POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR AT OLD DOMINION 

UNIVERSITY IN VIRGINIA, SAYS THE UNITED STATES CANNOT ACCEPT THE 

IRAQI LEADER'S LATEST PROPOSAL, BUT IT SUGGESTS HE IS LOOKING FOR

A WAY OUT OF THE CRISIS:



                                 // YETIV ACT //



         IT SEEMS TO ME THAT THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES 

         CANNOT ACCOMMODATE SADDAM INSOFAR AS ACCEPTING THE 

         RECENT PROPOSAL FOR SADDAM TO RECONFIGURE THE U-N 

         INSPECTIONS TEAM. ESSENTIALLY WHAT THE UNITED STATES IN 

         MY VIEW NEEDS TO DO IS TO CONTINUE TO COUPLE THE 

         DIPLOMATIC APPROACH WITH THE MILITARY APPROACH, TO STAND

         FIRM AGAINST SADDAM BUT GIVE HIM SOME POTENTIAL ROOM TO 

         STAND DOWN FROM THE CRISIS.



                                   // END ACT //



QUOTING THE PRUSSIAN STRATEGIST CLAUSEWITZ, PROFESSOR YETIV SAYS 

WAR IS SOMETIMES A CONTINUATION OF DIPLOMACY BY OTHER MEANS.



BUT MICHAEL HUDSON, PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AT 

GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY, NOTES ARAB COUNTRIES AND MOST OTHER 

NATIONS HAVE ARGUED AGAINST THE USE OF FORCE IN THIS SITUATION:  



                                 // HUDSON ACT //



         TO DO SO WOULD MEAN RUNNING SQUARELY AGAINST THE VIEWS 

         OF THE GOVERNMENTS WE ARE SUPPOSEDLY PROTECTING, AND IT 

         WOULD CERTAINLY INFLAME ARAB AND ISLAMIC OPINION AGAINST

         THE UNITED STATES, AGAINST AMERICAN INTERESTS AND 

         PROBABLY AGAINST AMERICANS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. 



                                  // END ACT //



PROFESSOR YETIV SAYS IN PRIVATE, ARAB LEADERS ARE NOT SO OPPOSED 

TO U-S ACTION AGAINST SADDAM. THEY JUST WANT TO MAKE SURE THE 

UNITED STATES WILL SEE IT THROUGH AND NOT LEAVE THEM AT THE MERCY

OF THE IRAQI LEADER.



HE ADDS THE UNITED STATES HAS A DILEMMA. THE ECONOMIC SANCTIONS 

ON IRAQ ARE NOT REALLY HURTING SADDAM, ONLY HIS PEOPLE. BUT TO 

REMOVE THEM WOULD SEND A SIGNAL OF U-S WEAKNESS. 



THERE HAS BEEN A SUGGESTION THE UNITED STATES WOULD PROVIDE SOME 

RELIEF FROM THE SANCTIONS IF IRAQ PERMITS INSPECTIONS TO RESUME. 

PROFESSSOR HUDSON THINKS THAT IS A GOOD IDEA:



                               // HUDSON ACT //



         THE SANCTIONS CERTAINLY HAVE BEEN A HUMANITARIAN 

         DISASTER AND I THINK A MORAL STAIN ON AMERICAN POLICY IF

         IT IS TRUE, AS INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS HAVE 

         SUGGESTED, THAT MAYBE UP TO FOUR THOUSAND IRAQI 

         CHIILDREN ARE DYING EVERY MONTH FROM MALNUTRITION AND 

         DISEASE WHICH ARE RELATED TO THE SANCTIONS. 



                                  // END ACT //



PROFESSOR HUDSON SUGGESTS OFFERING TO LIFT THE SANCTIONS BY A 

CERTAIN DATE IF IRAQ FULLY COMPLIES WITH THE U-N INSPECTIONS. 



//OPT// ASSAD HOMAYOUN, AN IRANIAN OPPOSITION LEADER IN THE 

UNITED STATES, SAYS TEHRAN COULD ADD TO THE PRESSURE ON IRAQ, IF 

IT CHOSE TO MAKE A DRAMATIC CHANGE OF POLICY IN ITS OWN BEST 

INTEREST: 



                             // HOMAYOUN ACT // 



         I BELIEVE IRAN SHOULD COME TO THE RIGHT SIDE OF HISTORY.

          IRAN MUST USE THIS OPPORTUNITY AND SIDE WITH THE 

         INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO BRING DOWN SADDAM AND 

         TERMINATE HIS THREAT TO THE REGION AND TO IRAN. IT WILL 

         HELP PEACE IMMENSELY, RESTORE THE RESPECT AND CREDIBILTY

         OF IRAN WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.



                                   // END ACT & OPT // 



BUT PROFESSOR YETIV THINKS THE MOOD IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS TURNING

AGAINST THE UNITED STATES AND THE WEST, AS DEMONSTRATED BY THE 

ATTACK ON THE TOURST BUS IN UPPER EGYPT: 



                                  // YETIV ACT //



         WHEN YOU HAVE DOMESTIC ECONOMIC WEAKNESS AND 

         UNEMPLOYMENT, AND YOU COUPLE IT WITH THE FEELING THAT 

         THE CURRENT ISRAELI GOVERNMENT IS NOT MOVING AHEAD ON 

         PEACE AND QUITE THE CONTRARY, IS NOT INTERESTED IN THAT,

         AND YOU ADD THIS NOTION OF THE UNITED STATES MOVING 

         FORCES INTO THE REGION WHERE IT MAY ATTACK AND HIT THE 

         IRAQI PEOPLE, I THINK ALL THOSE THINGS TOGETHER ARE 

         PRODUCING A SITUATION WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE OF THESE

         KINDS OF INCIDENTS.



                                  // END ACT //



PROFESSOR YETIV SAYS SADDAM IS SURELY A SURVIVOR BUT A 

CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED ONE WHO HAS LOST MUCH OF HIS MILITARY 

STRENGTH AND HAS FACED SERIOUS COUP ATTEMPTS. THE PROBLEM IS WHO 

WOULD SUCCEED HIM? AND WOULD A SUCCESSOR BE ABLE TO KEEP A 

FRAGMENTED IRAQ TOGETHER, A GOAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY? 

IF THERE IS ONE THING SADDAM HAS LEARNED FROM ALL HIS MISTAKES, 

SAYS PROFESSOR YETIV, IT IS HOW TO HANG ON TO  POWER.  (SIGNED) 



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17-Nov-97 7:25 PM EST (0025 UTC)

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Source: Voice of America

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