DATE= 11/10/97
TYPE=U-S OPINION ROUNDUP
NUMBER=6-10435
TITLE=THE CONFRONTATION WITH IRAQ CONTINUES
BYLINE=ANDREW N. GUTHRIE
TELEPHONE=619-3335
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
EDITOR=ASSIGNMENTS
CONTENT=
INTRO: THE CONFRONTATION WITH IRAQ, OVER THE ISSUE OF ALLEGED
U-S DOMINANCE OF THE UNITED NATIONS WEAPONS INSPECTIONS
IN THAT COUNTRY, CONTINUES. ON MONDAY, U-N
SECRETARY-GENERAL KOFFI ANNAN GOT NOWHERE IN A MEETING
WITH IRAQI DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER TARIQ AZIZ ON THE
STANDOFF.
THE SECURITY COUNCIL MET TO TRY TO FORMULATE A PLAN ON
HOW TO DEAL WITH THE CONFLICT, WHILE IN THE SKIES OVER
IRAQ MONDAY, A U-S U-2 SPY PLANE FLEW HIGH OVER THE
LAND, AND WAS NOT SHOT AT DESPITE BAGHDAD'S THREAT TO DO
SO.
IN THE UNITED STATES, THE NEWSPAPERS ARE FILLED WITH
COMMENTS ON THIS LATEST FLARE UP IN THE MIDDLE EAST, AND
WE GET A SAMPLING NOW FROM _________________ IN TODAY'S
U-S OPINION ROUNDUP.
TEXT: MOST AMERICAN NEWSPAPERS ARE OF THE OPINION THAT SADDAM
HUSSEIN ONLY UNDERSTANDS FORCE AND THAT WHATEVER IS SAID
TO HIM WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT. WHILE THE PAPERS
DIFFERED IN HOW SOON OR IN WHAT EXACT WAY FORCE SHOULD
BE APPLIED, THERE ARE FEW WHO RULE OUT SOME SORT OF
MILITARY RESPONSE AS AN OPTION.
WE BEGIN OUR SAMPLING IN MAINE, WHERE "THE PORTLAND
PRESS HERALD" STRIKES A FAMILIAR NOTE WITH THIS
HEADLINE: "TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR RESTRAINT WITH
IRAQ."
VOICE: "THE UNITED STATES HAS THUS FAR SHOWN PROPER RESTRAINT
IN ITS DEALING WITH IRAQ. RESTRAINT WILL RIGHTLY GIVE
WAY TO DECISIVE MILITARY ACTION IF IRAQI PRESIDENT
SADDAM HUSSEIN DOESN'T SOON BACK DOWN. ..... IRAQ MUST
SURRENDER OR DESTROY ITS LONG-RANGE MISSILES AND
CHEMICAL, BIOLOGICAL AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS OR COMPONENTS
BEFORE THE UNITED NATIONS WILL LIFT ECONOMIC SANCTIONS
ON THE COUNTRY. ..... AT SOME POINT SOON IF SADDAM
REMAINS STUBBORN, THE UNITED STATES WILL HAVE TO RESORT
TO MILITARY ACTION TO FORCE HIM TO COMPLY WITH THE
CONDITIONS SET DOWN BY THE U-N SECURITY COUNCIL. IRAQ
IS AN OUTLAW NATION, COMMITTED TO BREAKING ITS
INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS AND THREATENING FITS NEIGHBORS.
THE WORLD SHOULD NOT TOLERATE ITS FAILURE TO LIVE UP TO
U-N DEMANDS."
TEXT: WRITING IN "THE NEW YORK TIMES," FOREIGN AFFAIRS
COLUMNIST THOMAS FRIEDMAN IS EVEN MORE FORCEFUL IN
SUGGESTING A WAY TO DEAL WITH THE IRAQI DICTATOR.
VOICE: "[OPT] WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT HOW THE U-S SHOULD RESPOND
TO SADDAM HUSSEIN'S LATEST ATTEMPT TO EVADE U-N
SANCTIONS, JUST KEEP THIS IN MIND: SADDAM HUSSEIN IS THE
REASON GOD CREATED CRUISE MISSILES. CRUISE MISSILES ARE
SIMPLY THE ONLY WAY TO DEAL WITH HIM. SADDAM IS UP TO
SOMETHING SERIOUS THIS TIME. HE HAS APPARENTLY
CONCLUDED ....... THAT THE U-N SANCTIONS ON IRAQ ARE NOT
GOING TO BE LIFTED, WHETHER SADDAM IS A GOOD BOY OR A
BAD BOY. WHATEVER HE DOES, THE U-S INTENDS TO FIND A
WAY TO KEEP THE U-N SANCTIONS NOOSE AROUND HIS NECK
UNTIL ONE OF HIS GENERALS OR ONE OF HIS RELATIVES
TERMINATES HIM WITH EXTREME PREJUDICE. [ASSASSINATES
HIM] ....... [END OPT]
HOLDING ONTO HIS WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION ... IS NOT
THE ONLY REASON SADDAM PRECIPITATED A CRISIS NOW - - BY
BLOCKING ANY FURTHER U-N WEAPONS INSPECTIONS IN IRAQ
UNLESS THE SIX U-S MEMBERS OF THE INSPECTION TEAM ARE
REMOVED. HE ALSO SMELLS WHERE THE WIND IS BLOWING IN
THE MIDDLE EAST - - IN AMERICA'S FACE. THERE ARE
POWERFUL MAGNETIC FORCES ... PULLING IRAQ OUT OF ITS
ISOLATION. SYRIA WOULD LIKE TO GET CLOSER TO IRAQ IN
ORDER TO COUNTER PRESSURE ON DAMASCUS FROM TURKEY AND
ISRAEL. EGYPT WOULD LIKE TO SEE IRAQ BACK IN THE ARAB
FOLD TO COUNTER IRAN AND PUT MORE LEVERAGE ON ISRAEL.
THE EUROPEAN OIL COMPANIES, SENSING THAT THE U-S
SANCTIONS ON IRAN ARE COLLAPSING, WANT TO USE THIS
MOMENT TO END THE BLOCKADE OF IRAQ."
TEXT: "THE MIAMI HERALD" IS CONCERNED THAT THE UNITED NATIONS
SECURITY COUNCIL, WHICH HAS PREVIOUSLY HAD SERIOUS
DIFFERENCES IN ITS APPROACH TO IRAQ, NOW MAINTAINS A
"UNIFIED FRONT."
VOICE: "GETTING THE INSPECTIONS BACK ON TRACK, HOWEVER, MAY
REQUIRE GREATER UNITY THAN THE UNITED NATIONS HAS SHOWN
IN RECENT MONTHS. FRANCE AND RUSSIA, BOTH SECURITY
COUNCIL MEMBERS, HAVE SUFFERED BECAUSE OF THE SANCTIONS
AND ARE EAGER FOR THEM TO END. TOO EAGER, PERHAPS. IN
THEIR WAFFLING SADDAM FINDS ENOUGH WIGGLE ROOM TO
EXPLOIT TO HIS ADVANTAGE. ..... GETTING A RENEGADE
STATE LIKE IRAQ TO DISMANTLE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT DEMONSTRATION OF THE WORLD
COMMUNITY'S ABILITY TO CONTROL DESPOTS. FOR THAT
REASON, IT IS IMPORTANT THAT THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION
PRESS [U-N SECRETARY GENERAL] ... ANNAN TOWARD MORE
FORCEFULNESS IN DEALING WITH SADDAM. AT THE SAME TIME,
THOUGH, MR. CLINTON SHOULD MAKE CLEAR THAT THE UNITED
STATES WILL CONSIDER ALL ITS OPTIONS, INCLUDING
UNILATERAL MILITARY ACTION IF NECESSARY, TO MAKE IRAQ
HONOR ITS COMMITMENT."
TEXT: PICKING UP THAT UNIFIED FRONT THEME IS GRAHAM FULLER, A
FORMER HIGH RANKING C-I-A OFFICER FROM 1982 TO 1987,
WRITING IN THE OP ED PAGES OF "THE LOS ANGELES TIMES,"
WHO SAYS" GOING IT ALONE ISN'T AN OPTION." HOWEVER HE
SUGGESTS THE UNITED STATES MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
MAINTAIN LEADERSHIP IN THIS CRISIS DUE TO OTHER FACTORS.
VOICE: "IRAQ CANNOT BE SEEN IN ISOLATION. IN ISRAEL, THE
HARD-LINE POLICIES OF BENJAMIN NETANYAHU HAVE
EFFECTIVELY TORPEDOED [KILLED] THE PEACE PROCESS,
SETTING OFF NEGATIVE REACTIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
WASHINGTON'S HESITANCY IN DEALING FIRMLY WITH HIM HAS
SHARPLY DAMAGED ITS PRETENSES TO EVENHANDEDNESS AND THUS
CURTAILED THE ACCEPTABILITY AND LATITUDE OF U-S ACTION
EVEN IN FRIENDLY MUSLIM STATES. UNILATERAL U-S
MILITARY ACTION AGAINST SADDAM TODAY WOULD BE WIDELY
CONDEMNED BY ARAB STATES THAT FEEL A NEED FOR ARAB
SOLIDARITY IN THE FACE OF [MR.] NETANYAHU'S
INTRANSIGENCE. IN THE SAME VEIN, THE U-S HAS CONSUMED
LARGE QUANTITIES OF GOODWILL EVEN WITH EUROPEAN PARTNERS
ON THE SECURITY COUNCIL THROUGH OTHER ILL-CONCEIVED
UNILATERAL ACTIONS SUCH AS THE HELMS-BURTON ACT AND THE
IRAN-LIBYA SANCTIONS ACT, WHICH PUNISH AMERICAN ALLIES
FOR NOT CONFORMING WITH AMERICAN POLICY TOWARD CUBA,
IRAN AND LIBYA. THUS U-S EFFORTS TO ENSURE SECURITY
COUNCIL ALIGNMENT WITH WASHINGTON ON IRAQ ENCOUNTER
GREATER OPPOSITION THAN EVER BEFORE. ..... SADDAM IS
DEMONSTRABLY THE SINGLE MOST DANGEROUS RULER IN THE
WORLD TODAY. LET'S SEE IF WE CAN GET MINIMAL AGREEMENT
ON WHAT THAT DANGER IS AND HOW TO FACE IT WITH A UNITED
SECURITY COUNCIL STAND."
TEXT: LASTLY, VETERAN FOREIGN AFFAIRS COLUMNIST GWYNNE DYER,
WRITING IN "THE WASHINGTON TIMES" FROM HER BASE IN
LONDON, SUGGESTS THAT SADDAM HUSSEIN IS MAKING A
CRITICAL BET, AND HE MAY PROVE TO BE A WINNER.
VOICE: "THERE ARE TWO MAJOR RESTRAINTS ON SADDAM LEFT OVER FROM
THE GULF WAR: UNSCOM [UNITED NATIONS SPECIAL COMMISSION
- - THE WEAPONS INSPECTION TEAM] WHICH RESTRICTS HIS
WARMAKING CAPABILITIES, AND THE U-N TRADE SANCTIONS THAT
SAP IRAQ'S ECONOMIC STRENGTH. WHAT SADDAM HAS FOUND (OR
THINKS HE HAS) IS A TACTIC THAT WILL END EITHER ONE OR
THE OTHER. HE SAW THE DIVISIONS OVER THE RECENT U-N
RESOLUTION CENSURING IRAQ'S EVASIONS ON THE ARMS-CONTROL
FRONT. TEN SECURITY COUNCIL MEMBERS VOTED FOR IT, BUT
FIVE OTHERS, INCLUDING PERMANENT MEMBERS FRANCE AND
RUSSIA , ABSTAINED. SO HE REASONS THAT IF THE SECURITY
COUNCIL EVER DID FIND THE NERVE TO VOTE FOR DECISIVE
MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAQ, FRANCE AND / OR RUSSIA
WOULD VETO IT. IF HE'S WRONG, THEN HE CAN JUST BACK
DOWN AT THE LAST MINUTE. IF HE'S RIGHT, THEN THE UNITED
STATES MIGHT TRY TO BRING HIM TO HEEL UNILATERALLY - -
BUT THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION, LACKING INTERNATIONAL
SUPPORT AND FEARING A DOMESTIC BACKLASH IF THERE WERE
SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS OF AMERICAN CASUALTIES (FIVE OR
MORE, IN THIS CONTEXT), WOULD NOT GO BEYOND CRUISE
MISSILE ATTACKS AND THE LIKE. THAT DIDN'T WORK IN 1993,
OR 1994, OR LAST SEPTEMBER. IT WOULDN'T WORK THIS TIME
EITHER. ..... SO EITHER SADDAM FREES HIMSELF FROM THE
UNSCOM REGIME - - OR AN EMBARRASSED SECURITY COUNCIL
SAVES FACE BY NEGOTIATING A RELAXATION OF THE U-N TRADE
SANCTIONS IN EXCHANGE FOR UNSCOM'S RETURN. THAT IS
SADDAM'S TWO-WAY BET, AND IT MAY SUCCEED."
TEXT: ON THAT NOTE, WE CONCLUDE THIS BRIEF SAMPLING OF COMMENT
FROM THE EDITORIAL PAGES OF AMERICA'S NEWSPAPERS ON THE
ON-GOING CONFRONTATION WITH SADDAM HUSSEIN. (SIGNED)
NEB/ANG/PT
10-Nov-97 3:59 PM EST (2059 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.