DATE= 11/4/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-37983
TITLE=U-S POLICY COLLISION IN THE GULF
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: U-S POLICY FACES A DILEMMA -- THE WORLD NEEDS AND
INCREASING AMOUNT OF OIL, YET THE UNITED STATES SUPPORTS
SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN AND IRAQ THAT PREVENTS THOSE COUNTRIES
FROM EXPORTING AS MUCH OIL AS THEY COULD. V-O-A'S ED WARNER
REPORTS TWO ANALYSTS HAVE SUGGESTED A COMPROMISE SOLUTION.
TEXT: RICHARD FAIRBANKS AND ANTHONY CORDESMAN OF THE CENTER FOR
STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN WASHINGTON SAY THE UNITED
STATES CANNOT HAVE IT BOTH WAYS.
WRITING IN "THE WASHINGTON TIMES," THE TWO FORMER U-S GOVERNMENT
OFFICIALS SAY THE UNITED STATES HAS IMPOSED SEVERE ECONOMIC
SANCTIONS ON BOTH IRAN AND IRAQ AS PART OF THE POLICY OF DUAL
CONTAINMENT. AT THE SAME TIME, U-S ENERGY AGENCIES ARE COUNTING
ON OIL FROM THE TWO COUNTRIES TO HELP MEET FAST GROWING WORLD
DEMAND, ESPECIALLY FROM ASIA.
TO PREVENT WHAT THEY CALL A POLICY COLLISION, THE AUTHORS SUPPORT
A CONTINUED U-S MILITARY PRESENCE IN THE PERSIAN GULF TO COUNTER
ANY AGGRESSIVE BEHAVIOR BY EITHER COUNTRY. BUT THEY RECOMMEND A
"TARGETED INVESTMENT" IN IRAN AND IRAQ. THAT WOULD BE CONFINED TO
OIL AND GAS PROJECTS AND WOULD BE STRICLY SUPERVISED.
THEY SAY SUCH A COURSE WOULD APPEAL TO NOW DISGRUNTLED U-S ALLIES
WHO WANT TO TRADE WITH IRAN, AND WOULD RECONCILE AMERICAN
SECURITY AND ENERGY INTERESTS.
GREGORY GAUSE, A PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT THE UNIVERSITY
OF VERMONT WHO WRITES EXTENSIVELY ON THE GULF, SAYS THE
RECOMMENDATION MAKES SENSE IN THE CASE OF IRAN:
// GAUSE ACT //
OUR ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN ARE TARGETED AT
SPECIFIC POLICIES THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT IS PURSUING
REGARDING THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS, PERHAPS
REGARDING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. BUT IN TERMS OF
BEING A RESPONSIBLE PLAYER IN THE INTERNATIONAL OIL
MARKETS, I DO NOT THINK WE HAVE ANY PROBLEMS WITH
IRAN. AND INVESTING IN IRAN SEEMS TO ME TO BE A
CREDIBLE WAY OF MAKING SURE THERE IS GOING TO BE OIL
DOWN THE LINE.
// END ACT //
PROFESSOR GAUSE THINKS U-S INVESTMENT IN IRAQ MUST AWAIT THE
DEPARTURE OF SADDAM HUSSEIN.
IAN LESSER, A SENIOR ANALYST AT RAND IN CALIFORNIA, MAKES A
SIMILAR DISTINCTION:
// LESSER ACT //
IRAN IS A SERIOUS REGIONAL ACTOR THAT NEEDS TO BE TAKEN
SERIOUSLY OVER THE LONGER TERM, EVEN IF THEIR BEHAVIOR
IN MANY WAYS IS UNACCEPTABLE TO US. THE SITUATION IN
IRAQ IS VERY DIFFERENT. WE ARE DEALING WITH THE
MANAGEMENT OF A RELATIONSHIP WITH A DEFEATED COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF A WAR, IN WHICH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
THROUGH THE UNITED NATIONS IMPOSED CERTAIN CONDITIONS TO
WHICH THE IRAQIS ADHERE TO ONLY SPORADICALLY.
// END ACT //
MR. LESSER SAYS THE UNITED STATES SHOULD PERMIT INVESTMENT IN
IRAN AND IRAQ ONLY IF IT RECEIVES SOMETHING IN RETURN; THAT IS,
STOPPING SUPPORT OF TERRORISM AND ACQUISITION OF WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION.
PROFESSOR GAUSE AGREES WITH THE AUTHORS THAT THE SANCTIONS
IMPOVERISHING IRAQ ARE TURNING ITS PEOPLE AGAINST THE WEST, NOT
AGAINST SADDAM HUSSEIN:
// GAUSE ACT //
THIS IS A RESPONSIBILITY WE AND THE COUNTRIES OF THE
REGION HAVE TO TAKE ON MUCH MORE PUBLICLY AND BE SEEN TO
TAKE ON MUCH MORE PUBLICLY, SO IN A POST-SADDAM
ENVIRONMENT THE WHOLE IRAQI PEOPLE DO NOT FEEL THEY
HAVE BEEN SINGLED OUT AS ENEMIES BY THE UNITED STATES OR
BY THE REGION. BUT IT HAS TO BE DONE IN A WAY THAT DOES
NOT GIVE THE REGIME MORE RESOURCES TO BUILD UP ITS OWN
CONVENTIONAL AND NON-CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS AND NOT MAKE
MISCHIEF.
// END ACT //
WHILE DIFFERING IN CERTAIN RESPECTS, THE AUTHORS OF THE
COMMENTARY AND ITS TWO CRITICS AGREE SOME CHANGE IS NECESSARY IN
U-S POLICY TOWARD THE PERSIAN GULF. (SIGNED)
NEB/EW/MMK
04-Nov-97 3:47 PM EST (2047 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.