DATE=  11/11/97

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

NUMBER=5-38050

TITLE=U-S / IRAQ: WHAT IN THE LONG RUN?

BYLINE=MAXIM KNIAZKOV

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

VOICED AT: 



INTRO: THE LATEST SHOWDOWN BETWEEN THE UNITED NATIONS AND IRAQ 

HAS PROMPTED CALLS FOR A REASSESSMENT OF THE U-S APPROACH TOWARD 

THE GOVERNMENT OF SADDAM HUSSEIN.  BUT WHILE SOME EXPERTS APPEAL 

FOR A CONCERTED U-S EFFORT TO TOPPLE THE DEFIANT IRAQI PRESIDENT,

OTHERS CAUTION SUCH A STRATEGY COULD DO WASHINGTON MORE HARM THAN

GOOD.  V-O-A'S MAXIM KNIAZKOV LOOKS INTO THE DILEMMA FACED BY THE

CLINTON ADMINISTRATION.  



TEXT: WITH RHETORIC SURROUNDING THE STANDOFF BETWEEN THE UNITED 

NATIONS AND IRAQ HEATING UP, THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION HAS 

FOCUSED ON WAYS TO ADDRESS THE IMMEDIATE CRISIS. 



IN A RECENT TELEVISION INTERVIEW, U-S SECRETARY OF STATE 

MADELEINE ALBRIGHT URGED BAGHDAD TO DROP ITS BAN ON U-S 

PARTICIPATION IN INTERNATIONAL ARMS INSPECTIONS IN IRAQ.  AND, 

SHE EMPHASIZED INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION IN REINING IN THE 

RECALCITRANT IRAQI LEADER. 



                     // ACT ONE ALBRIGHT // 



         THIS IS SADDAM HUSSEIN AGAINST THE UNITED NATIONS.  

         THEREFORE, IT IS SADDAM HUSSEIN AGAINST THE WORLD.  AND,

         THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS MADE ITS VIEWS VERY 

         CLEAR THAT HE MUST COMPLY.  I AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE 

         ON WHAT FURTHER ACTION WE MIGHT TAKE.  BUT THE ISSUE 

         HERE IS THAT WE ARE VERY CLEAR THAT HE MUST COMPLY AND 

         THE OTHER COUNTRIES AGREE WITH US. 



                         // END ACT // 



BUT LURKING BEHIND IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IS A QUESTION THAT U-S 

POLICYMAKERS HAVE SO FAR CAREFULLY AVOIDED -- AT LEAST IN PUBLIC.

THAT IS HOW TO DEAL WITH IRAQ IN THE LONG TERM NOW THAT BAGHDAD 

HAS REPEATEDLY DEMONSTRATED ITS DEFIANCE OF THE INTERNATIONAL 

RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE GULF WAR. 



IN THE PAST, THE UNITED STATES HAS RESPONDED TO SUCH VIOLATIONS 

WITH LIMITED STRIKES ON IRAQI MILITARY TARGETS.  BUT SENATE 

REPUBLICAN MAJORITY LEADER TRENT LOTT RECENTLY QUALIFIED SUCH 

RESPONSES AS SLAPS ON THE WRIST AND SUGGESTED THE ADMINISTRATION 

COME UP WITH SOMETHING MORE MEANINGFUL. 



BUT AT THE MOMENT, THERE APPEARS TO BE  NO  CONSENSUS IN 

WASHINGTON ABOUT WHAT THIS NEW IRAQ POLICY SHOULD BE.  ONE IDEA 

WAS FLOATED RECENTLY IN THE WASHINGTON POST NEWSPAPER BY ZALMAY 

KHALILZAD AND PAUL WOLFOWITZ, BOTH SENIOR OFFICIALS IN THE BUSH 

ADMINISTRATION.  THEY SUGGESTED CASTING ASIDE DIPLOMATIC NICETIES

AND MAKING A CONCERTED EFFORT TO TOPPLE SADDAM HUSSEIN.  MR. 

KHALILZAD, WHO IS A POLITICAL RESEARCHER AT RAND CORPORATION, 

EXPLAINS. 



                     // ACT TWO KHALILZAD // 



         FIRST, IT WOULD HAVE TO BE IN THE CONTEXT OF A POLITICAL

         STRATEGY THAT SEEKS TO RE-ENERGIZE AND REVITALIZE THE 

         IRAQI OPPOSITION, WHICH HAS BEEN WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY 

         IN THE COURSE OF THE LAST TWO TO THREE YEARS.  TWO, WE 

         NEED TO ENCOURAGE THAT OPPOSITION TO FORM A 

         GOVERNMENT-IN-EXILE.  THIRD, WE NEED TO MAKE SOME OF THE

         FROZEN IRAQI ASSETS AVAILABLE TO THAT 

         GOVERNMENT-IN-EXILE. 



                         // END ACT // 



OTHER EXPERTS, HOWEVER, QUESTION THIS APPROACH.  THEY SAY THE U-N

GULF WAR RESOLUTIONS CALL FOR DISMANTLING IRAQ'S WEAPONS OF MASS 

DESTRUCTION,  NOT  OVERTHROWING ITS GOVERNMENT.  THEY SAYS IF 

WASHINGTON GOES BEYOND THIS MANDATE, IT WOULD RISK ISOLATING 

ITSELF IN THE U-N SECURITY COUNCIL AND DAMAGING ITS RELATIONS 

WITH THE ARAB WORLD. 



BUT MR. KHALILZAD REJECTS SUCH CONCERNS, SAYING A MORE AGGRESSIVE

U-S POSTURE TOWARD SADDAM HUSSEIN WOULD BE WELCOME IN THE MIDDLE 

EAST. 



                  // ACT THREE KHALILZAD // 



         I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE IN THE MIDDLE EAST WOULD SUPPORT

         A STRATEGY THAT ALLOWS IRAQ TO RETURN TO THE ARAB AND 

         GLOBAL FAMILY OF NATIONS.  I THINK THE DISSATISFACTION 

         IN THE ARAB WORLD WITH THE CURRENT APPROACH IS BASED ON 

         THE FACT THAT THE IRAQIS ARE SUFFERING BECAUSE OF 

         SANCTIONS. 



                         // END ACT // 



HOWEVER, A TOP MIDDLE EAST EXPERT AT WASHINGTON'S CENTER FOR 

STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, ANTHONY CORDESMAN, SAYS 

PLANS TO TOPPLE SADDAM HUSSEIN MAY BE UNREALISTIC.  



                   // ACT FOUR CORDESMAN // 



         I THINK THAT IT IS AS DANGEROUS TO OVERREACT AS IT IS TO

         UNDERREACT.  THE UNITED STATES CAN SOMETIMES AID 

         OPPOSITION MOVEMENTS.  BUT THE FACT IS THAT THE KURDISH 

         OPPOSITION (IN IRAQ) IS HOPELESSLY DIVIDED AND ALMOST 

         COMPLETELY SELF-DESTRUCTIVE.  THERE IS  NO  FACTION TO 

         BACK.   THE VARIOUS OPPOSITION MOVEMENTS, WHICH CLAIMED 

         TO HAVE BROAD REPRESENTATION INSIDE IRAQ, NEVER HAD THAT

         SUPPORT AND, IN MANY WAYS, ARE PROBABLY NEVER LIKELY TO 

         GET IT. 



                          // END ACT // 



MR. CORDESMAN SAYS THIS LACK OF A VIABLE OPPOSITION IS THE MAIN 

REASON WHY THE UNITED STATES SHOULD STICK TO THE CURRENT 

STRATEGY.  THAT IS, TO CURBING IRAQ'S MILITARY OPTIONS THROUGH 

INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS. 



BUT WITH PRESIDENT CLINTON SAYING NOTHING IS RULED IN OR OUT AT 

THE MOMENT, EXPERTS SAY IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT WHICH POINT 

OF VIEW WILL PREVAIL IN WASHINGTON AT THE END OF THE DAY.  

(SIGNED)



NEB/MAX/EH     



11-Nov-97 1:26 PM EST (1826 UTC)

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Source: Voice of America

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