News




DATE=2/19/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-39032
TITLE=ARAB NATIONS AND U-S POLICY
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

        
INTRO:   THE GROWING ANXIETY OF ARAB COUNTRIES OVER U-S POLICY 
TOWARD IRAQ WAS THE SUBJECT OF DISCUSSION AT A RECENT MEETING 
(TODAY--THURSDAY) AT GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY . V-O-A'S ED 
WARNER ATTENDED AND HAS THIS REPORT 

TEXT:   BEFORE THE PERSIAN GULF WAR, ARAB COUNTRIES FELL IN LINE 
WITH U-S POLICY BECAUSE SADDAM HUSSEIN HAD CLEARLY COMMMITTED AN 
ACT OF AGGRESSION. THIS TIME IT IS DIFFERENT, SAID NATHAN BROWN, 
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT THE GEORGE WASHINGTON
UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS.

HE ALSO NOTED THERE IS GROWING RESENTMENT OF U-S POLICY ON A 
POPULAR LEVEL, SUSPICION ON A LEADERSHIP LEVEL:  

                               // BROWN ACT //

         AMONG THE REGIMES THAT ARE FAIRLY CLOSELY ASSOCIATED 
         WITH THE UNITED STATES, YOU HEAR THIS SAME FORMULATION 
         AGAIN AND AGAIN ON THE CURRENT CRISIS: IRAQ SHOULD ABIDE
         BY U-N SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTIONS, BUT WE HOPE FOR A 
         DIPLOMATIC SOLUTION. YOU HEAR THAT FROM THE SAUDIS, FROM
         THE BAHRAINIS, FROM THE QATARIS, FROM THE EGYPTIANS, AND
         THESE ARE COUNTRIES WHERE WE HAVE IN SOME CASES FAIRLY 
         CLOSE SECURITY RELATIONS. 

                                   // END ACT //

PROFESSOR BROWN SAID THE ARAB NATIONS WORRY ABOUT THE IMPACT OF A
MILITARY STRIKE ON THEIR POPULATIONS, BUT THEY FEEL POWERLESS TO 
PREVENT IT AND ARE TRYING TO INSULATE THEMSELVES AS BEST THEY 
CAN. 

DALIA DASSA KAYE, AN ASSISTANT PROFESSOR AT THE ELLIOTT SCHOOL, 
SAID THE ARAB NATIONS ARE MOSTLY CONFUSED ABOUT U-S POLICY:  

                                 // KAYE ACT //

         TODAY WHILE CERTAINLY NO REGIONAL STATE WOULD LIKE TO 
         SEE SADDAM HUSSEIN CONTINUE IN POWER OR WOULD LIKE TO 
         SEE HIM CONTINUE TO DEVELOP HIS WEAPONS OF MASS 
         DESTRUCTION, THERE IS FAR LESS CONSENSUS ABOUT THE SCOPE
         OF THE PRESENT CRISIS, THE SCOPE AND MISSION OF UNSCOM, 
         THE ARMS INSPECTORS. THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT THE 
         PRECEDENT THAT SUCH AN INTRUSIVE ARMS INSPECTION REGIME 
         SETS FOR ARAB COUNTRIES CONCERNED WITH THEIR OWN 
         INTERNAL AND DOMESTIC SOVEREIGNTY.

                                  // END ACT // 

PROFESSOR KAYE SAID ARAB NATIONS FEEL SHUT OUT OF WHAT HAS BECOME
A SHOWDOWN BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND IRAQ. FOR THEM, IT IS NO
LONGER AN INTERNATIONAL OR EVEN A REGIONAL MATTER, BUT A TWO-WAY 
DUEL. 

SHE ADDED A U-S ATTACK COULD LEAD TO MORE CRITICISM OF THE 
ECONOMIC SANCTIONS ON IRAQ. PROFESSOR BROWN SAID PEOPLE IN THE 
MIDDLE EAST WONDER IF THE SANCTIONS WOULD BE LIFTED EVEN IF IRAQ 
COMPLIED WITH ALL THE U-N RESOLUTIONS: 

                                 // BROWN ACT //

         AT TIMES THE UNITED STATES HAS HINTED "YES," AND AT 
         TIMES WE HAVE HINTED, "WELL, AS LONG AS SADDAM HUSSEIN 
         IS IN POWER, WE REALLY HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT 
         THE SANCTIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE," THE IMPLICATION 
         BEING THAT THE SANCTIONS ARE THERE TO REMOVE HIM FROM 
         POWER. AND THEY WILL LIVE AS LONG AS HE DOES.

                                   // END ACT //

FOR ALL THE FEARS OF THE ARAB NATIONS, BOTH PROFESSORS BROWN AND 
KAYE THINK A U-S MILITARY ATTACK WILL NOT HAVE GRAVE EFFECTS ON 
THE REGION UNLESS IT LASTS TOO LONG.  (SIGNED)



NEB/PT

         


19-Feb-98 9:57 PM EST (0257 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.