DATE=8/11/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41124
TITLE=IRAQ/ EKEUS/ SANCTIONS
BYLINE=NICK SIMEONE
DATELINE=WASHINGTON 
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  A SPECIAL U-N ENVOY IS HEADING TO IRAQ TO TRY TO RESOLVE 
THE LATEST STANDOFF BETWEEN BAGHDAD AND U-N WEAPONS INSPECTORS.  
LAST WEEK, IRAQ ANNOUNCED IT WOULD NO LONGER COOPERATE WITH U-N 
INSPECTORS SEARCHING FOR BANNED WEAPONS, UNLESS THE U-N BODY 
OVERSEEING DISARMAMENT IS RESTRUCTURED.  ANALYSTS SAY BAGHDAD IS 
AGAIN TRYING TO TEST THE WILL OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO 
KEEP NEARLY A DECADE OF SANCTIONS IN PLACE.  CORRESPONDENT NICK 
SIMEONE EXAMINES WHETHER THE IRAQI STRATEGY WILL WORK.

TEXT:  IRAQ'S ANNOUNCEMENT BROKE AN AGREEMENT PRESIDENT SADDAM 
HUSSEIN NEGOTIATED WITH U-N SECRETARY GENERAL KOFI ANNAN IN 
FEBRUARY, ONE THAT PREVENTED A U-S MILITARY STRIKE.  

LAST WEEK, THE U-N SECURITY COUNCIL CONDEMNED IRAQ'S DECISION TO 
END COOPERATION.  BUT U-N CORRESPONDENT MAX RUSTON SAYS THE 
COUNCIL'S FIVE PERMANENT MEMBERS APPEAR INCREASINGLY DIVIDED ON 
THE LARGER ISSUE OF HOW LONG IRAQI SANCTIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN 
PLACE.  

                        // RUSTON ACT //

         CHINA, FRANCE, AND RUSSIA FAVOR AN APPROACH WHERE IRAQ 
         IS REWARDED FOR SOME OF THE MEASURES IT HAS TAKEN, FOR 
         SOME OF THE PROGRESS THAT HAS BEEN MADE.  WHILE BRITAIN 
         AND THE UNITED STATES ARE TAKING A MORE ALL-OR-NOTHING 
         APPROACH WHERE ONCE IRAQ HAS FULLY COMPLETED THE 
         PROCESS, THEN THEY SAY THE SANCTIONS WILL BE FULLY 
         LIFTED.

                          // END ACT //

ANDREW PARASILITI, AN EXPERT ON IRAQ AT WASHINGTON'S MIDDLE EAST 
INSTITUTE, BELIEVES BAGHDAD HAS CONCLUDED DIPLOMATIC BRINKMANSHIP
IS AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO TEST THE WILL OF THE SECURITY COUNCIL.

                      // PARASILITI ACT //

         ONE LESSON THAT SADDAM HUSSEIN MAY HAVE LEARNED FROM 
         FEBRUARY IS THAT CRISIS DIPLOMACY WORKS.  IF YOU 
         REMEMBER, WHAT SADDAM HUSSEIN WAS ABLE TO DO DURING THAT
         PERIOD OF CRISIS FROM NOVEMBER, 1997 TO FEBRUARY, '98 
         WAS TO EXPLOIT DIVISIONS AMONG SECURITY COUNCIL MEMBERS 
         ON IRAQ, TO GATHER AND REVEAL THE DEPTH OF FRUSTRATION 
         IN THE ARAB WORLD FOR U-S POLICY TOWARD IRAQ, AND ALSO 
         TO GAIN THE INTERVENTION OF THE SECRETARY GENERAL.  
         THESE WERE POLITICAL GAINS FOR SADDAM HUSSEIN. 

                          // END ACT //

WATCHING THIS LATEST STANDOFF FROM HIS JOB AS SWEDEN'S AMBASSADOR
TO WASHINGTON IS FORMER CHIEF U-N WEAPONS INSPECTOR ROLF EKEUS.  
HIS ADVICE: IRAQ SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO INFLUENCE THE SECURITY 
COUNCIL BY BULLYING THE U-N WEAPONS COMMISSION, KNOWN AS UNSCOM.

                         // EKEUS ACT //

         THE KEY IS THAT REACTION SHOULD BE MATURE, STEADY (AND) 
         NOT DEVIATE FROM THE LINE WHICH HAS BEEN LAID DOWN BY 
         THE COUNCIL.

                         // END ACT // 

IRAQ MAINTAINS IT HAS ELIMINATED OR ACCOUNTED FOR ALL OF ITS 
BANNED WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION AND ACCUSES UNSCOM OF BEING A 
TOOL OF THE UNITED STATES.  

IRAQ SPECIALIST ANDREW PARASILITI BELIEVES BAGHDAD MAY BE 
PARTIALLY CORRECT IN THINKING THE SANCTIONS ISSUE MAY ULTIMATELY 
BOIL DOWN TO POST GULF WAR ENMITY BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND 
IRAQ.  

                   // SECOND PARASILITI ACT //

         IN MARCH OF 1997, SECRETARY OF STATE ALBRIGHT, IN HER 
         FIRST MAJOR POLICY ADDRESS ON IRAQ, SAID THAT SANCTIONS 
         WILL REMAIN UNTIL IRAQ SHOWS ITS PEACEFUL INTENTIONS AND
         SHE ADDED THAT THE EVIDENCE IS THAT SADDAM HUSSEIN'S 
         INTENTIONS WILL NEVER BE PEACEFUL.  THAT MEANS THAT THE 
         UNITED STATES SEES SANCTIONS AS A MEANS OF CONTAINING 
         IRAQ AND THAT THOSE MEANS COULD AND WOULD, IF THE UNITED
         STATES HAS ITS WAY, REMAIN IN PLACE AS LONG AS SADDAM 
         HUSSEIN IS THERE.  THAT IS NOT THE POSITION OF THE OTHER
         MEMBERS OF THE SECURITY COUNCIL.  

                         // END ACT // 

FORMER UNSCOM CHIEF ROLF EKEUS EXPECTS THE SECURITY COUNCIL TO 
KEEP SANCTIONS IN PLACE -- NOT BECAUSE OF U-S POLICY -- BUT 
BECAUSE OF IRAQ'S POOR RECORD OF COMPLIANCE ON ARMS CONTROL.  

                     // SECOND EKEUS ACT //

         IT IS IN THE HANDS OF THE IRAQI LEADERSHIP TO MAKE UP 
         ITS MIND AND SAY THEY HAVE NOTHING TO WIN IN CHALLENGING
         THE RESOLUTIONS, THE SECURITY COUNCIL.

                          // END ACT //

U-N SECRETARY GENERAL KOFI ANNAN'S SPECIAL ENVOY TO IRAQ IS DUE 
IN BAGHDAD LATER THIS WEEK TO TRY TO RESOLVE THIS LATEST STANDOFF
OVER WEAPONS INSPECTIONS.   (SIGNED) 

NEB/RAE

11-Aug-98 1:13 PM EDT (1713 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.