DATE=11/07/98 TYPE=ON THE LINE NUMBER=1-00685 TITLE=THE THREAT FROM IRAQ EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY - 619-0037 CONTENT= THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE ANNCR: ON THE LINE -- A DISCUSSION OF UNITED STATES POLICIES AND CONTEMPORARY ISSUES. THIS WEEK, "THE THREAT FROM IRAQ." HERE IS YOUR HOST, ROBERT REILLY. HOST: HELLO AND WELCOME TO ON THE LINE. IRAQI DICTATOR SADDAM HUSSEIN HAS ENDED ALL COOPERATION WITH UNITED NATIONS WEAPONS INSPECTORS. HE HAS HALTED THE U-N MONITORING PROGRAMS PUT IN PLACE TO INSURE THAT IRAQ DOES NOT REBUILD ITS BIOLOGICAL, CHEMICAL AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS CAPABILITIES. THE U-N SECURITY COUNCIL HAS CONDEMNED IRAQ'S ACTION AND DEMANDED ITS REVERSAL. PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON CALLED SADDAM'S BEHAVIOR "A CLEAR VIOLATION" OF U-N RESOLUTIONS. MR. CLINTON SAID THAT "WE SHOULD KEEP ALL OUR OPTIONS OPEN. . .AND THEN DO WHAT'S BEST FOR THE INTEGRITY OF THE UNITED NATIONS AND THE SECURITY INTERESTS OF THE PEOPLE OF THE UNITED STATES." JOINING ME TODAY TO DISCUSS THE NEW THREAT FROM IRAQ AND U.S. POLICY ARE THREE EXPERTS. DAVID WURMSER IS RESIDENT FELLOW AT THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE AND AUTHOR OF THE UPCOMING BOOK, TYRANNY'S ALLY: HOW SADDAM IS DEFEATING THE UNITED STATES; GARY MILHOLLIN IS DIRECTOR OF THE WISCONSIN PROJECT ON NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL; AND KENNETH TIMMERMAN IS PUBLISHER OF THE IRAN BRIEF, A MONTHLY NEWSLETTER. WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM. DAVID WURMSER, OF COURSE, THIS NEW THREAT IS AN OLD THREAT. BUT HOW WOULD YOU CHARACTERIZE THE NATURE OF SADDAM'S LATEST CHALLENGE TO THE SECURITY COUNCIL? WURMSER: I WOULD ACTUALLY CHARACTERIZE IT MOSTLY AS A CLEANING UP. HE'S DONE SOME OF THE BIGGER CHALLENGES OVER THE LAST YEAR. THIS IS SHUTTING DOWN THE INSPECTIONS ALTOGETHER -- SOME OF THE ONGOING MONITORING AND SO FORTH. HE'S ALREADY ESSENTIALLY KICKED OUT THE INSPECTORS. HOST: COULD YOU REPRISE THOSE? WHEN YOU SAY HE'S ALREADY MET THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES OVER THE PAST YEAR, YOU MEAN BY THAT WHAT? WURMSER: FIRST OF ALL, HE WATERED DOWN -- HE ENTERED A PROCESS OF NEGOTIATION OVER INSPECTIONS STARTING LAST OCTOBER, NOVEMBER WITH US. WE SAID IT WOULD NEVER HAPPEN. THEN IN FEBRUARY, MARCH, WE WATERED DOWN THE WAY THE INSPECTIONS WOULD BE RUN, SUCH THAT IT WOULDN'T BE CLEARLY JUST EXPERTS IN THE INSPECTION PROGRAM. THERE WOULD BE TIP-OFFS THROUGH SOME OF THE DIPLOMATS INVOLVED AND SO FORTH IN INSPECTIONS AND SO ON. THE SITES AND THE WAY WE WOULD INSPECT THE SITES WERE WATERED DOWN. AND NOW, IN AUGUST, YOU HAD HIM DECIDING TO EXPEL THE INSPECTORS. SO THIS IS ONE OF THE LAST THINGS HE NEEDS TO DO TO CLEAN UP SO THAT THERE ARE NO MORE INSPECTIONS AND NO ON-GOING MONITORING OF WHAT HIS ACTIVITIES ARE. HOST: GARY MILHOLLIN, WHAT SHOULD THE RESPONSE TO THIS LATEST CHALLENGE BE? MILHOLLIN: I THINK IT'S TIME TO FACE THE REALITY AND TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT WE CAN'T MAKE PROGRESS, THAT IS, THE WEST, CAN'T MAKE PROGRESS IN IRAQ UNLESS WE'RE WILLING TO BACK UP THE INSPECTORS WITH THE THREAT OF FORCE. THAT HAS ALWAYS BEEN NECESSARY SINCE 1991. AND IT HAS BEEN DONE. I'VE TALKED TO INSPECTORS WHO'VE TOLD THE IRAQIS, UNLESS YOU LET US INTO THIS BUILDING, WE'RE GOING TO BOMB IT. THERE'S NOT GOING TO BE A BUILDING. THEN THE IRAQIS RELENTED AND LET THEM IN. UNLESS YOU'RE WILLING TO DO IT THAT WAY, YOU'RE SIMPLY WASTING YOUR TIME. AND I THINK THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION HAS GIVEN IRAQ THE IMPRESSION THAT WE'RE NOT REALLY WILLING TO DO THAT. AND THAT HAS, IN A WAY, SET THE STAGE FOR THE MOST RECENT CRISIS, IN WHICH SADDAM IS NOW BOLDER. HE DOESN'T THINK WE'RE GOING TO REACT STRONGLY, SO HE'S TAKEN THE LAST STEP, WHICH IS TO SAY THERE AREN'T GOING TO BE ANY MORE INSPECTIONS. HOST: KEN TIMMERMAN, PRESIDENT CLINTON HAS DEPLOYED TROOPS AND AIRCRAFT AND AIRCRAFT CARRIERS IN THE PAST. SADDAM HAS BACKED DOWN IN THE PAST. WHAT IF PRESIDENT CLINTON RESPONDS NOW, IN CONCERT WITH THE U-N SECURITY COUNCIL, IN THIS WAY? DO WE JUST GO THROUGH ANOTHER REPETITION OF WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST? TIMMERMAN: IF THERE IS THE THREAT OF FORCE, OR THE USE OF FORCE, WE CERTAINLY HAVE THE EQUIPMENT AND THE MEN IN THE PERSIAN GULF REGION, IN THE ARABIAN SEA TO HANDLE IT. THERE ARE OVER A HUNDRED AND SEVENTY U.S. COMBAT AIRCRAFT IN THE REGION. WE HAVE ONE AIRCRAFT CARRIER GROUP. WE HAVE AN ASSAULT GROUP AS WELL IN THE ARABIAN SEA. WE ARE ABLE TO HANDLE ANY KIND OF STRIKE THAT WOULD BE NEEDED. I THINK THE PROBLEM, THOUGH, GOES BEYOND JUST THAT. THE LAST TWO TIMES THAT THE U.S. USED FORCE AGAINST IRAQ, IT WAS JUST CRUISE MISSILES SENT OFF IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT, ONCE AGAINST AN IRAQI INTELLIGENCE HEADQUARTERS IN DOWNTOWN BAGHDAD IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. AND THE SECOND ONE WAS AGAINST IRAQI AIR DEFENSE POSITIONS SOUTH OF BAGHDAD AFTER SADDAM HAD ATTACKED IN THE NORTH. I THINK NOW THOSE CRUISE MISSILES ARE NOT ENOUGH. AND IF WE'RE GOING TO GO IN AND MAKE A SERIOUS AND CREDIBLE DETERRENT ATTACK -- BECAUSE THE QUESTION NOW IS TO DETER SADDAM FROM ACTUALLY USING THE WEAPONS WHICH HE'S HIDDEN FROM THE INSPECTORS -- I THINK WE HAVE TO GO IN THERE A LOT MORE FORCEFULLY AND GO IN THERE WITH MANNED AIRCRAFT AND TAKE SOME FACILITIES OUT. HOST: DAVID WURMSER, IS A MILITARY ACTION SUFFICIENT TO MEET THIS NEW THREAT? WURMSER: I THINK ANY STRATEGY ON BRINGING THIS IRAQ SITUATION TO A CLOSE, WHICH WOULD INVOLVE THE REMOVAL OF SADDAM HUSSEIN, WOULD INVOLVE SOME SORT OF A MILITARY OPTION. BUT WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE IS THAT WE WOULD USE THE MILITARY OPTION IN A WAY THAT DOES ADVANCE THE CAUSE OF TRYING TO REMOVE SADDAM HUSSEIN. CLEARLY, WE HAVE AN ACUTE PROBLEM HERE OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. AND CLEARLY WE WOULD HAVE TO REACT TO THAT, AT THE VERY LEAST TO SLOW DOWN THE PROCESS OF HIS RECONSTITUTING OR REBUILDING HIS PROGRAMS. BUT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THAT AS A FIRST STEP IN A MORE AGGRESSIVE STRATEGY TO GET RID OF SADDAM HUSSEIN. THAT WOULD INVOLVE MILITARY FORCE, BUT IT WOULD INVOLVE MILITARY FORCE NOT ONLY ON HIS WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION PROGRAMS BUT ON SOME OF THE THINGS THAT REALLY KEEP THAT REGIME AFLOAT, WHICH ARE THE MILITARY FORCES THAT PROTECT HIM, THE MILITARY FORCES UPON WHICH HE DEPENDS IN ORDER TO KEEP HIS ENEMIES AWAY FROM HIM. HOST: LET'S TALK JUST FOR A MOMENT ABOUT THE THREAT HE DOES REPRESENT WITH WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, THOSE THAT HE MAY STILL CONTINUE TO HAVE DESPITE OVER FIVE YEARS OF U-N WEAPONS INSPECTIONS, AND HOW QUICKLY HE COULD RECONSTITUTE HIS ABILITY. GARY MILHOLLIN, YOU'RE AN EXPERT IN THAT AREA. WHAT DO YOU THINK? MILHOLLIN: WE KNOW HE HAS MADE V-X NERVE GAS. WE DON'T KNOW HOW MUCH HE HAS. WE ALSO THINK HE'S WEAPONIZED IT INTO WARHEADS. SO LITERALLY, AS WE SIT HERE, HE COULD VERY EASILY HAVE NUMEROUS WARHEADS FILLED WITH V-X NERVE GAS READY TO USE. THE SAME IS TRUE OF BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS. WE KNOW HE HAS HAD AN AGGRESSIVE BIOLOGICAL WEAPON PROGRAM. WE KNOW HE'S WEAPONIZED THAT, PUT IT INTO WARHEADS. WE HAVE TO ASSUME THEY'RE READY FOR USE. ALSO, WE CANNOT ACCOUNT FOR A NUMBER OF MISSILES THAT WE KNOW HE HAS BEEN ABLE TO BUILD ON HIS OWN AND THAT, FOR ALL WE KNOW, COULD BE READY FOR LAUNCH. THEN THERE'S THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM. HE STILL HAS HIS NUCLEAR DESIGN TEAMS INTACT. THEY HAVEN'T FORGOTTEN ANYTHING THEY LEARNED. AND THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW GOOD THE DESIGN IS. WE'VE HAD RECENT REPORTS THAT THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WHAT ARE CALLED IMPLOSION PACKAGES READY TO GO AS SOON AS SADDAM CAN SMUGGLE IN THE NUCLEAR MATERIAL TO PUT IN THEM. SO, WITHOUT INSPECTIONS, WE'RE NOT GOING TO KNOW HOW MUCH HE HAS, WHETHER IT'S WEAPONIZED, WHETHER IT'S READY TO GO AND WHO HE COULD HIT WITH IT. AND THAT PUTS US BACK IN THE SITUATION WE WERE IN BEFORE THE GULF WAR. HOST: IN OTHER WORDS, IT'S A LITTLE DISHEARTENING, AFTER YEARS OF INSPECTIONS, THAT HE COULD STILL HAVE THIS KIND OF MATERIAL. TIMMERMAN: YES, AND WHAT WE HAVE IS THE MOST RIGOROUS INTERNATIONAL INSPECTION REGIME THAT HAS EVER BEEN DEVISED, AND STILL, WITH THAT, DESPITE THAT, SADDAM HAS BEEN ABLE TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING HIS WEAPONS. AND I THINK DAVID REALLY MADE THE POINT THAT WE HAVE A DUAL PROBLEM IN IRAQ. WE HAVE A SHORT TERM PROBLEM, WHICH IS SADDAM'S WEAPONS THAT WE HAVE TO TAKE CARE OF. WE MUST PREVENT HIM FROM DEPLOYING THOSE WEAPONS OR FROM USING THEM. AND FOR THAT WE NEED MILITARY FORCE IMMEDIATELY AGAINST WEAPONS FACILITIES. AND THEN WE HAVE A LONG TERM PROBLEM, WHICH IS SADDAM HUSSEIN AND HIS REGIME, BECAUSE HE WILL DO IT AGAIN, AS HE HAS DONE IT AGAIN AND AGAIN IN THE PAST SIX YEARS. HOST: AS YOU MAY KNOW, ON OCTOBER 31ST, THE U.S. CONGRESS PASSED THE IRAQ LIBERATION ACT, WHICH WAS AN EXPRESSION OF CONCERN ON THE PART OF CONGRESS, AND ONE SHARED BY THE ADMINISTRATION, THAT THE OPPOSITION TO SADDAM HUSSEIN INSIDE IRAQ BE ABLE TO RECEIVE SOME KIND OF VIABLE SUPPORT. DAVID WURMSER, HOW REALISTIC IS IT TO EXPECT ANY DOMESTIC OPPOSITION TO MOUNT A SERIOUS CHALLENGE TO SUCH A TOTALITARIAN REGIME? WURMSER: IF WE'RE COUNTING ON THE IRAQIS TO TAKE MATTERS INTO THEIR OWN HANDS WITHOUT ANY AMERICAN BACKING OR ANY EXTERNAL BACKING FROM, SAY, NORTHERN IRAQ, WHICH IS NOT UNDER SADDAM'S CONTROL, THERE'S VERY LITTLE CHANCE, BECAUSE ANYBODY WHO MEETS WITH ANYBODY TO CONSPIRE TO GET RID OF SADDAM IS DEAD. PEOPLE HAVE TRIED TO GET RID OF SADDAM. THE PEOPLE OF IRAQ HAVE TRIED A NUMBER OF TIMES AND THEY'VE PAID WITH A VERY LARGE PORTION OF THEIR POPULATION HAVING BEEN KILLED. I THINK IT'S AROUND FOUR OR FIVE PERCENT OF THEIR POPULATION HAS BEEN KILLED IN UPRISINGS AGAINST SADDAM. IT'S A HUGE PRICE TO PAY FOR TRYING TO GET RID OF HIM. THE WILLINGNESS IS THERE. THE ABILITY IS NOT INTERNALLY THERE IN IRAQ. SO THE REAL POINT IS THAT IT WILL HAVE TO COME FROM THE OUTSIDE, THE OUTSIDE NOT BEING FROM IRAQ AS A WHOLE, BUT FROM THE AREA UNDER SADDAM'S CONTROL. IT WOULD HAVE TO COME FROM NORTHERN IRAQ. IF THERE'S AN ADDRESS TO WHICH PEOPLE CAN DEFECT, IF THERE'S AN ADDRESS TO WHICH WHOLE UNITS CAN DEFECT, AND THERE'S SOME PRESSURE FROM THE UNITED STATES. FOR EXAMPLE, IF WE BOMBED THE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION SITES, IF WE ALSO BOMBED SOME OF THE REPUBLICAN GUARD UNITS ALONG THE LINE WITH NORTHERN IRAQ AND LET THEM KNOW THAT IF YOU REALLY DON'T LIKE THIS, YOU CAN GO NORTH AND YOU CAN DEFECT, YOU MIGHT GET A REPEAT OF WHAT HAPPENED IN 1991 WHEN THE IRAQI ARMY -- WE THOUGHT THEY SURRENDERED. IN MANY WAYS, WHAT HAPPENED WAS A MASS DEFECTION OF THE IRAQI ARMY. SO THAT'S A VERY DISTINCT POSSIBILITY, IF WE PUT THE PRESSURE ON HIS ARMED FORCES. BUT WE'RE NOT WILLING TO TRY THAT RIGHT NOW. HOST: BUT OF COURSE THERE WERE ATTEMPTS IN THE NORTH TO FORM A VIABLE OPPOSITION AND THE KURDS BEGAN FIGHTING EACH OTHER. WHAT IS THE POLITICAL CHARACTER OF THE OPPOSITION TO SADDAM HUSSEIN? AND ARE THEY ABLE TO COALESCE TO THE POINT WHERE THEY CAN BECOME AN EFFECTIVE FORCE? TIMMERMAN: I THINK THE BOTTOM LINE IS ALWAYS JUST WHAT DAVID HAS SAID, WHICH IS WHEN THE UNITED STATES IS THERE, AND WE ARE HELPING THEM, THE IRAQI OPPOSITION GETS TOGETHER. THEY GOT TOGETHER VERY WELL IN NORTHERN IRAQ. YOU HAD SUNNIS, YOU HAD SHI'AS ALL WORKING TOGETHER FOR SEVERAL YEARS. THEY HAD A SUCCESSFUL MILITARY CAMPAIGN THAT BEGAN AGAINST THE IRAQI ARMY IN MARCH, 1995 FROM NORTHERN IRAQ. THREE ENTIRE IRAQI BRIGADES DEFECTED TO THAT ADDRESS IN NORTHERN IRAQ. THEY WENT TO FREEDOM. THIS COULD HAPPEN AGAIN. THE PROBLEM AGAIN, AT THAT POINT WAS THAT THE U.S. PULLED THE PLUG AND WE STOPPED IT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS, IF THE U.S. IS THERE, IF WE ARE HELPING THEM, THEY CAN GET THEIR ACT TOGETHER. HOST: WHY DID THE U.S. PULL THE PLUG? WURMSER: FIRST OF ALL, EVER SINCE 1991, THAT WAS THE SECOND TIME THIS HAPPENED. BUT WHAT WE DID WAS, WE WERE WAITING FOR A COUP IN BAGHDAD AND WE HAD DEFECTORS TELLING US THAT THERE'S AN IMMINENT COUP IN BAGHDAD. HOWEVER, SINCE IT'S A SUNNI MINORITY GOVERNMENT IN IRAQ, THE PEOPLE WHO ARE PLANNING THE COUP ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT THE BREAKUP OF IRAQ AND ARE HUMILIATED BY IT, AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT THEY'RE WORRIED ABOUT A KURDISH SHI'ITE BLOODBATH AGAINST THE SUNNIS AFTERWARDS. SO THEY TOLD US, LISTEN, YOU REALLY CAN'T DO THIS COUP. WE WON'T DO THIS COUP UNLESS YOU SHUT DOWN YOUR THREAT TO THE REGIME FROM THE NORTH AND FROM THE SOUTH, THE SHI'ITES. WE COMPLIED. THIS WAS THE SECOND TIME WE HAD DONE THIS. SO WE SHUT DOWN THE OPERATION IN THE NORTH. THE FIRST TIME WAS DURING THE MASSIVE UPRISING THAT TOOK PLACE IN IRAQ RIGHT AFTER THE GULF WAR, WHERE ABOUT FIFTEEN OR SIXTEEN OF IRAQ'S EIGHTEEN PROVINCES WERE IN REVOLT. WE LET THAT REVOLT BE CRUSHED BECAUSE WE WERE TOLD BY NUMEROUS HIGH-RANKING OFFICERS THAT THERE WOULD BE A COUP THE MOMENT IT WOULD BE CRUSHED. AGAIN, THE SAME PATTERN. DEFECTORS CAME ACROSS FROM SADDAM'S BAGHDAD. THEY WERE PLANTS, AND LATER WERE FOUND OUT TO BE PLANTS. THE THIRD TIME WAS THE SUMMER, WHEN SCOTT RITTER WANTED TO INSPECT AND THE INSPECTIONS THAT WE . . . HOST: A MEMBER OF THE U-N INSPECTION TEAM. WURMSER: EXACTLY, THE UNSCOM [U-N SPECIAL COMMISSION] TEAM. IN AUGUST, HE WAS GOING TO UNDERTAKE A SERIES OF FAIRLY INTENSIVE AND VERY EFFECTIVE INSPECTIONS. THEY INCLUDED SOME OF THE MEMBERS OF THE SECURITY FORCES PROTECTING SADDAM, THE VERY PEOPLE THAT WE WERE HOPING AGAIN, TO TAP FOR A COUP. SO THAT'S ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WE BACKED OFF FROM THOSE INSPECTIONS AND TOLD UNSCOM NOT TO DO THEM SO THAT WE COULD ENCOURAGE THE COUP THAT ONCE AGAIN NEVER HAPPENED. HOST: WHAT'S THE NEXT STEP THEN FOR THE UNITED STATES. THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE HAS SAID THAT SADDAM'S ACTIONS HAVE CHALLENGED THE CREDIBILITY OF THE U-N SECRETARY GENERAL KOFI ANNAN WHO WAS IN BAGHDAD LAST FEBRUARY AND WHO WORKED OUT THE LATEST ARRANGEMENT FOR FREE AND OPEN INSPECTIONS. AND NOW OF COURSE SADDAM HAS TURNED AGAINST THAT. IS THE UNITED STATES POISED, WITH THE U-N SECURITY COUNCIL, AND WITH ITS ALLIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST TO TAKE EFFECTIVE ACTION, DO YOU THINK? MILHOLLIN: IT SEEMS TO ME THAT WE HAVE TO MOVE THIS DEBATE AWAY FROM THE SECRETARY GENERAL BACK TO THE SECURITY COUNCIL. KOFI ANNAN, IN EFFECT, SABOTAGED OUR LAST EFFORT TO USE FORCE AND SUBSTITUTED FOR IT A COMPLETELY INEFFECTIVE INSPECTION ARRANGEMENT WHICH NOW HAS BEEN PROVED TO BE UNWORKABLE. SO IT SEEMS TO ME THAT WHATEVER CREDIBILITY OR EFFECT THAT HE MIGHT HAVE HAD IS NOW OVER. HOST: THE SECURITY COUNCIL HAS UNANIMOUSLY CONDEMNED THIS AND CALLED FOR ITS REVERSAL. KEN TIMMERMAN, ARE THE STATES IN THE GULF REGION PREPARED TO ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAQ? TIMMERMAN: EVERYTHING I'VE HEARD FROM GULF LEADERS WHEN I WAS OUT THERE A FEW MONTHS AGO AND BEFORE -- IT ALL COMES DOWN TO ONE MESSAGE. WE'RE WITH A STRONG U.S. ACTION AGAINST SADDAM HUSSEIN, IF THAT ACTION IS INTENDED TO OVERTHROW THE REGIME AND SUBSTITUTE A FOLLOW-ON REGIME, BUT WE ARE NOT GOING TO SUPPORT A PIN PRICK ATTACK. AND IF THE U.S. DECIDES ON ANOTHER PIN PRICK ATTACK, WE WILL NOT HAVE SUPPORT FROM SAUDI ARABIA. WE WILL NOT HAVE SUPPORT FROM OTHER PERSIAN GULF COUNTRIES. I THINK THAT THEY DO NOT WANT TO BE ON THE RECEIVING END OF SADDAM'S WRATH AFTER A PIN PRICK ATTACK THAT ALLOWS HIM TO CONTINUE IN POWER. I THINK, REALLY, THE POINT NOW IS TO MOVE BEYOND THE MILITARY ACTION AS PURE RETALIATION. WE NOW NEED TO DETER SADDAM FROM USING HIS WEAPONS, AND WE NEED TO SHOW HIM THAT HIS DAYS ARE NUMBERED, AND THAT WE ARE GOING TO BE SUPPORTING AN ALTERNATIVE. HOST: DAVID WURMSER. WURMSER: ULTIMATELY, WHAT HAPPENED WHEN SADDAM STARTED FOOLING AROUND WITH UNSCOM ALREADY A YEAR AGO WAS, SOON AFTERWARDS, HE CAME INTO WHAT WOULD BE CALLED A MATERIAL BREACH OF THE CEASEFIRE AGREEMENTS FROM 1991. THAT MEANS THAT THE WAR THAT ENDED IN 1991 IS, IN EFFECT, BACK ON. WE ARE IN A STATE OF WAR. WE'RE CHOOSING AT THIS POINT NOT TO SHOOT. SADDAM IS JOCKEYING FOR A STRATEGIC POSITION AND SO FORTH. I THINK AT THIS POINT WE HAVE TO REALIZE WE'RE BACK AT WAR. AND AS IN ANY WAR, YOU NEED TO SET DOWN A STRATEGY AND THINK HOW YOU WILL USE FORCE TO ACHIEVE THAT STRATEGY. HOST: BUT IN A WAY, WOULDN'T YOU SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER POSITION TODAY TO USE FORCE BECAUSE THE LAST TIME, GARY MILHOLLIN, THAT THE UNITED STATES WANTED TO MOVE FORWARD WITH MILITARY FORCE CLEARLY IT WAS A HIGHLY UNPOPULAR POTENTIAL MOVE. WHEREAS TODAY, BECAUSE OF, SOME WOULD SAY, SADDAM'S BLUNDER IN DOING THIS, HE HAS PROVOKED UNANIMITY AGAINST HIM. MILHOLLIN: YES, I THINK WE ARE IN A STRONGER POSITION. BUT IN ORDER FOR US TO USE FORCE EFFECTIVELY, THE PRESIDENT HAS TO GO OUT TO THE COUNTRY AND EXPLAIN WHY IT IS THAT AMERICA'S INTEREST IS ENGAGED HERE. HE HAS TO EXPLAIN, IF WE DON'T DEAL WITH SADDAM NOW WHEN HE DOESN'T HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH HIM IN FIVE YEARS WHEN HE DOES HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS. AND HE HAS TO EXPLAIN THAT TO THE REST OF THE GULF, THE REST OF SADDAM'S NEIGHBORS. THE DIFFICULTY LAST TIME WAS THAT THAT WAS NOT EFFECTIVELY DONE. WHAT WE NEED NOW IS SOME PRESIDENTIAL LEADERSHIP. HOST: THOUGH THE PRESIDENT HAS SAID THAT AND DID SAY THAT LAST FEBRUARY AND MADE THE CASE THAT HE HAD TO BE STOPPED AND THAT THERE COULD BE NO FUDGING. WURMSER: EXCEPT THAT HE DID NOT FOLLOW THROUGH WITH THE THREAT OF FORCE AND THAT WAS A REAL PROBLEM. AND SADDAM TOOK THAT TO MEAN A LACK OF U.S. RESOLVE. THE U.S. CONGRESS HAS DEMONSTRATED SOME LEADERSHIP HERE BY PASSING THE IRAQ LIBERATION ACT AND BY AUTHORIZING THE ADMINISTRATION TO SPEND NINETY-SEVEN MILLION DOLLARS TO TRAIN AND EQUIP AN IRAQI LIBERATION ARMY. AND I THINK THAT CERTAINLY WOULD GO A LONG WAY, SPENDING THAT MONEY AND TRAINING EQUIPMENT, WOULD GO A LONG WAY TO DEMONSTRATING U.S. RESOLVE. HOST: I'M AFRAID THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS WEEK. I'D LIKE TO THANK OUR GUESTS -- DAVID WURMSER FROM AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE; GARY MILHOLLIN FROM THE WISCONSIN PROJECT ON NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL; AND KENNETH TIMMERMAN, PUBLISHER OF THE IRAN BRIEF -- FOR JOINING ME THIS WEEK TO DISCUSS IRAQ AND U.S. POLICY. THIS IS ROBERT REILLY FOR ON THE LINE. 06-Nov-98 3:46 PM EST (2046 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .