DATE=11/9/98 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-41804 TITLE=IRAQI COMPLIANCE BYLINE=LAURIE KASSMAN DATELINE=LONDON CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: BRITAIN'S DEFENSE SECRETARY IS VISITING GULF STATES IN THE WAKE OF A U-S MISSION TO RALLY SUPPORT FOR MILITARY ACTION IF IRAQ CONTINUES TO BAN U-N WEAPONS INSPECTIONS. CORRESPONDENT LAURIE KASSMAN IN LONDON TAKES A LOOK AT THE NEVER-ENDING CONFRONTATIONS BETWEEN IRAQ AND THE UNITED NATIONS. TEXT: LAST FEBRUARY, U-N SECRETARY GENERAL KOFI ANAN BROKERED AN AGREEMENT WITH IRAQI LEADER SADDAM HUSSEIN TO GIVE U-N INSPECTORS UNFETTERED ACCESS TO SITES HE HAD PREVIOUSLY DECLARED OFF-LIMITS. U-N ALLIES WERE TRIUMPHANT, BUT MANY ANALYSTS AND DIPLOMATS WERE ALREADY ASKING HOW LONG IT WOULD LAST. CONFRONTATION BETWEEN BAGHDAD AND U-N INSPECTORS HAS BECOME AN ALL TOO FAMILIAR PATTERN SINCE SANCTIONS WERE IMPOSED EIGHT YEARS AGO. BUT, THE SECURITY COUNCIL WILL NOT VOTE TO LIFT TOUGH ECONOMIC SANCTIONS UNTIL U-N INSPECTORS VERIFY THAT BAGHDAD HAS COMPLIED WITH U-N DEMANDS TO SCRAP ITS CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS. NOW, BAGHDAD AGAIN HAS SUSPENDED ITS COOPERATION WITH U-N INSPECTORS UNTIL THE SECURITY COUNCIL REVIEWS ITS SANCTIONS POLICY. MIDDLE EAST SCHOLAR FRED HALLIDAY OF THE LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS SAYS SADDAM HUSSEIN IS CONVINCED THE UNITED STATES WILL NEVER APPROVE LIFTING SANCTIONS SO HE HAS NO INCENTIVE TO PLAY BY THE RULES. /// HALLIDAY ACT /// IRAQIS HAVE BEEN TALKING FOR THE PAST YEAR OF THE NEED FOR A TIMETABLE TO END SANCTIONS AND A LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL, WHICH MEANS LIFTING OF ALL SANCTIONS AND NOT ONLY THE ABILITY TO EXPORT AS MUCH OIL AS THEY WANT BUT TO IMPORT WHATEVER THEY WANT AND AN END TO ALL U-N INSPECTIONS. THEY CALCULATED THEY'LL NEVER GET IT. THEY CALCULATED, AS MANY WESTERN POLITICIANS HAVE SAID, THAT AS LONG AS THIS REGIME IS THERE, AS LONG AS SADDAM HUSSEIN IS THERE, SANCTIONS ARE NOT GOING TO BE LIFTED. THEY THEREFORE HAD NO INCENTIVE FOR GOOD BEHAVIOR. /// END ACT /// FRUSTRATED U-N OFFICIALS AND WESTERN ALLIES ONCE AGAIN ARE DEMANDING THAT IRAQ END ITS LATEST BAN ON WEAPONS INSPECTIONS. U-S AND BRITISH OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN TOURING THE GULF TO RALLY SUPPORT FOR MILITARY ACTION IF IRAQ DOES NOT COMPLY. BUT GULF LEADERS APPEAR RELUCTANT, AT LAST PUBLICLY, TO SIGN ON TO ANY MILITARY STRIKE AGAINST SADDAM HUSSEIN. MR. HALLIDAY SAYS BAGHDAD IS COUNTING ON THAT RESISTANCE AND ON THE SPLIT AMONG U-N SECURITY COUNCIL MEMBERS OVER USING THE THREAT OF FORCE AS AN EFFECTIVE DIPLOMATIC TOOL AGAINST SADDAM HUSSEIN. /// HALLIDAY ACT TWO /// THE IRAQIS BELIEVE THAT THE DEPTH OF PUBLIC OPINION IN THE ARAB WORLD AND THE RESISTANCE OF COUNTRIES LIKE FRANCE AND RUSSIA AS WELL AS CHINA TO MILITARY ACTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROTECT THEM FROM MILITARY ATTACK. /// END ACT /// SADDAM HUSSEIN ALSO IS COUNTING ON THE DIMINISHING INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR CONTINUING THE SANCTIONS BECAUSE OF THEIR DEVASTATING IMPACT ON THE IRAQI PEOPLE. /// HALLIDAY ACT THREE /// SADDAM ALSO IS CALCULATING THAT THE SANCTIONS REGIME IS ERODING AND HE CAN TRADE MORE WITH NEIGHBORS LIKE TURKEY AND IRAN, AND THEREFORE HE DOESN'T ACTUALLY THINK THE WEST CAN KEEP THE SANCTIONS UP FOR THAT MUCH LONGER. /// END ACT /// MIDDLE EAST EXPERT AMIN SAIKAL SUGGESTS THE LATEST CONFRONTATION IS ROOTED IN A BASIC CLASH OF PERCEPTIONS. IN A RECENT EDITORIAL, THE AUSTRALIA-BASED SCHOLAR WRITES OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WHAT IS POLITICALLY ACCEPTABLE TO WASHINGTON AND WHAT IS TECHNICALLY VERIFIABLE. HE SAYS BAGHDAD BELIEVES WASHINGTON IS USING THE INSPECTION DISPUTE TO CREATE INTERNAL CONDITIONS OF HARDSHIP AND DISSENT. MR SAIKAL SAYS IT WILL NOT BE POSSIBLE TO DECLARE IRAQ COMPLETELY FREE OF CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS BECAUSE THE WEAPONS ARE EASY TO HIDE. SOME ANALYSTS ARGUE THAT A MILITARY STRIKE WOULD END IRAQ'S COOPERATION WITH THE U-N INSPECTIONS ALTOGETHER. BUT OTHERS ARGUE THAT MILITARY ACTION AGAINST SPECIFIC TARGETS IN IRAQ COULD HELP WEAKEN SADDAM HUSSEIN'S GRIP ON POWER. (SIGNED) NEB/LK/JWH 09-Nov-98 12:00 PM EST (1700 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .