DATE=11/11/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41830
TITLE=IRAQ/U-S
BYLINE=DOUGLAS ROBERTS
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  WEDNESDAY'S WITHDRAWAL OF U-N PERSONNEL FROM BAGHDAD HAS 
HEIGHTENED EXPECTATIONS OF A U-S MILITARY STRIKE, TO FORCE IRAQ 
TO RESUME FULL COOPERATION WITH THE U-N WEAPONS COMMISSION.  
CORRESPONDENT DOUGLAS ROBERTS REPORTS ON THE LATEST IN THE 
SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF CRISES IN THE GULF.

TEXT:  THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION CAME UNDER SHARP DOMESTIC 
CRITICISM FOLLOWING THE LAST CONFRONTATION WITH IRAQ.  THAT 
SHOWDOWN IN FEBRUARY WAS RESOLVED WHEN U-N SECRETARY GENERAL KOFI
ANNAN SECURED A COMMITMENT FROM BAGHDAD TO RESUME FULL 
COOPERATION WITH THE U-N WEAPONS COMMISSION.

SINCE THEN, DESPITE CONTINUED PROVOCATIONS FROM IRAQ, THE U-S 
GOVERNMENT APPEARED TO BE DISTANCING ITSELF FROM THE THREAT OF 
FORCE TO COMPEL COMPLIANCE WITH U-N DEMANDS FOR THE ELIMINATION 
OF IRAQ'S WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION.

CRITICS CHARGED THE ADMINISTRATION WAS, IN EFFECT, ABANDONING ITS
POLICY ON IRAQ BECAUSE THEY SAID -- WITHOUT THE THREAT OF FORCE, 
THAT POLICY IS SIMPLY NOT VIABLE.

THE CRITICISM REACHED A CRESCENDO IN EARLY AUGUST AFTER THE 
SEEMINGLY LOW-KEY U-S RESPONSE TO BAGHDAD'S DECLARATION IT WOULD 
NO LONGER ALLOW SPOT INSPECTIONS BY MEMBERS OF THE U-N WEAPONS 
COMMISSION. 

CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES MIDEAST ANALYST 
JUDITH KIPPER SAYS BAGHDAD INTERPRETED THE U-S REACTION AS A SIGN
OF WEAKNESS.

                       /// KIPPER ACT ///

         WELL, I THINK THIS, YOU KNOW THE AUGUST ANNOUNCEMENT AND
         THE MORE RECENT ONE OF PREVENTING THE INSPECTORS FROM 
         DOING THEIR JOBS WAS INEVITABLE.  THE IRAQIS HAD BEEN 
         SETTING THE AGENDA, CREATING CRISES EVERY THREE TO 
         SIX-MONTHS FOR THE LAST NINE-YEARS.  AND I THINK THIS IS
         TOTALLY PREDICTABLE.  THEY KEEP UPPING THE ANTE TO FORCE
         THE U-N SECURITY COUNCIL TO MAKE SOME CHOICES ABOUT 
         MAINTAINING THE SANCTIONS REGIME.  AND I THINK THE 
         IRAQIS HAVE CALCULATED THAT A SERIOUS MILITARY STRIKE IS
         UNLIKELY.

                         /// END ACT ///

BUT PRESSURE FOR MILITARY ACTION HAS BEEN BUILDING IN THE UNITED 
STATES FOR MANY WEEKS.  EDITORIALS IN LEADING AMERICAN NEWSPAPERS
SAY THE ADMINISTRATION MUST BE PREPARED TO USE FORCE TO COMPEL 
IRAQ'S COMPLIANCE AND TO ENSURE SADDAM HUSSEIN'S GOVERNMENT IS 
GIVEN NO OPPORTUNITY TO REBUILD ITS ARSENAL OF NUCLEAR, CHEMICAL,
AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS.

A TOP NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR IN THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION, 
RICHARD HAAS, IS AMONG MANY HERE WHO MAINTAIN WASHINGTON NEEDS NO
FURTHER AUTHORIZATION FOR AN ATTACK ON IRAQ.

// OPT //  WRITING IN "THE WASHINGTON TIMES NEWSPAPER" THIS WEEK,
MR. HAAS SAYS BAGHDAD IS VIOLATING THE TERMS OF THE CEASEFIRE 
THAT ENDED THE GULF WAR (NEARLY EIGHT-YEARS AGO), SO THE UNITED 
STATES AND ITS ALLIES ARE NO LONGER REQUIRED TO HOLD BACK.  // 
END OPT //

MR. HAAS ARGUES AGAINST A LIMITED BOMBING CAMPAIGN OF A FEW DAYS 
OR MORE.  HE SAYS ONCE THE DUST HAS SETTLED, SADDAM HUSSEIN WOULD
LOOM LARGER THAN EVER AND THERE WOULD STILL BE NO WEAPONS 
INSPECTIONS.

HE SAYS THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MOUNT A HEAVY AND SUSTAINED 
CAMPAIGN, ATTACKING SUSPECTED WEAPONS SITES AND IRAQI MILITARY 
TARGETS.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS SOME U-S ALLIES IN THE GULF SHARE THAT 
VIEW.  THERE IS LITTLE PUBLIC BACKING FOR MILITARY ACTION AGAINST
BAGHDAD ANYWHERE IN THE ARAB WORLD.  BUT WESTERN OFFICIALS SAY, 
SOME OF THE GULF ARAB LEADERS SAY IN PRIVATE THEY WOULD FAVOR AN 
ATTACK, AS LONG AS IT IS AIMED AT DOING REAL DAMAGE TO THE IRAQI 
WAR MACHINE.

THE DEPUTY CHIEF OF STAFF OF KUWAIT'S ARMED FORCES, GENERAL FAHAD
AL-AMIR, OPENLY EXPRESSED THAT VIEW IN AN APPEARANCE THIS WEEK AT
WASHINGTON'S NEAR EAST INSTITUTE.

                       /// AL-AMIR ACT ///

         IF THE STRIKE IS GOING TO BE TO DAMAGE SADDAM HUSSEIN 
         AND HIS ARSENAL, EVERYBODY WILL BE FOR THAT.  IF THE 
         STRIKE IS JUST A MATTER OF SHOWING FORCE, THEN I BELIEVE
         THERE ARE SOME OF THE G-C-C (GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL) 
         COUNTRIES ARE NOT GOING TO SUPPORT THIS.

                         /// END ACT ///

GENERAL AMIR ACKNOWLEDGED THE WIDESPREAD SYMPATHY IN THE ARAB 
WORLD FOR THE PLIGHT OF THE IRAQI PEOPLE, AND SAID HE HOPES 
SADDAM HUSSEIN WILL BACK DOWN IN HIS LATEST CONFRONTATION WITH 
THE UNITED NATIONS IN ORDER TO SPARE THE IRAQIS FURTHER 
SUFFERING.

JUDITH KIPPER THINKS BAGHDAD MAY RELENT ONCE IT SEES A MILITARY 
STRIKE IS IMMINENT.

                       /// KIPPER ACT ///

         IF, AT SOME POINT IN THE DISCUSSIONS, THE IRAQIS THINK 
         THAT A REAL MILITARY STRIKE THAT WOULD DAMAGE THE 
         PILLARS OF POWER BECOMES MORE OF A LIKELIHOOD, THEN THEY
         OF COURSE HAVE TIME TO BACK DOWN.

                         /// END ACT ///

BUT FOR THE MOMENT, THERE IS NO SIGN OF A SOFTENING FROM THE 
IRAQI LEADERSHIP, EVEN AS THE UNITED STATES ONCE AGAIN REINFORCES
ITS MILITARY PRESENCE IN THE GULF.   (SIGNED)

NEB/DBR/RAE

11-Nov-98 2:17 PM EST (1917 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.