DATE=11/12/98 TYPE=WORLD OPINION ROUNDUP NUMBER=6-11005 TITLE=THE COUNTDOWN TO ATTACKING IRAQ IS ON BYLINE=ANDREW N. GUTHRIE TELEPHONE=619-3335 DATELINE=WASHINGTON EDITOR=ASSIGNMENTS CONTENT= INTRO: THE MAJOR TOPIC ON FRONT PAGES AND IN EDITORIALS IN THE WORLD PRESS THIS WEEK IS THE POSSIBLE ATTACK BY THE U-S AND BRITAIN AGAINST IRAQ FOR ITS REFUSAL TO CONTINUE U-N WEAPONS INSPECTIONS. MANY PAPERS WERE RELUCTANTLY AGREEING THAT IRAQ'S LEADER, SADDAM HUSSEIN, HAD ESSENTIALLY LEFT THE ALLIES NO VIABLE OPTION OTHER THAN A MILITARY ATTACK, BUT MOST STILL DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THE MILITARY OPTION. WE WELCOME __________________ TO OUR MICROPHONE NOW WITH A SAMPLING IN THIS WEEK'S WORLD OPINION ROUNDUP. TEXT: ON THE ONE HAND, MANY JOURNALISTS LAMENTED THE FACT THAT "THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS YET TO FIND AND AGREE ON AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO DEAL WITH SADDAM." WHILE AT THE SAME TIME, WRITERS IN EUROPE AND THE MIDDLE EAST WERE EXPRESSING RESERVATIONS ABOUT THE USE OF FORCE AND WORRYING, AS DID ONE ITALIAN DAILY, ABOUT WHAT IT CALLED THE "UNKNOWN FACTORS IN THE IMMINENT U-S ATTACK...." STILL OTHERS FRETTED THAT ATTACKING IRAQ WILL NOT BRING ABOUT THE DESIRED RESULTS, AND OTHER COMPLAINED THAT MILITARY ACTION WILL ONLY MAKE A VERY HARD LIFE EVEN WORSE FOR THE IRAQI PEOPLE WHO ARE INNOCENT PAWNS IN THIS INTERNATIONAL DRAMA. WE BEGIN OUR SAMPLING IN THE MIDDLE EAST, WHERE THE INFLUENTIAL EGYPTIAN DAILY "AL AHRAM" IN CAIRO COMMENTS: VOICE: UNDOUBTEDLY THIS REPEATED SCENARIO [OF AMERICAN THREATS] TO FORCE IRAQ TO COOPERATE WITH THE U-N, LIES IN THE CONTEXT OF AMERICAN POLICIES AIMED TO MAINTAIN CONSTANT TENSION IN THE REGION AND TO COVER REPEATED ISRAELI VIOLATIONS OF THE PEACE DEALS AND THE UGLY FACE OF [PRIME MINISTER] NETANYAHU. THIS BORING REPETITION MADE ARABS LOSE CONFIDENCE IN AMERICAN POLICY TOWARD IRAQ. NO ARAB COUNTRY IS READY TO USE ITS LAND FOR A STRIKE AGAINST IRAQ.... TEXT: IN THE SAUDI CAPITOL, RIYADH, THE ARABIC-LANGUAGE DAILY "AL-RIYADH" RAN THIS EDITORIAL IN THURSDAY'S [11/12] EDITIONS: VOICE: ... CONVENTIONAL WISDOM SEES THE U-S AS A POWER WHOSE ACTIONS DO NOT COINCIDE WITH THE LOGIC OF JUSTICE OR THE DESIRES OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IN THE FORMULATION OF ITS DECISIONS.... TEXT: TURNING TO JORDAN, WE READ IN AMMAN'S "AL-ARAB AL-YAWM" A WARNING THAT THE REST OF THE ARAB WORLD NEEDS TO SHED ITS COMPLACENCY: VOICE: WHEN WE COMPARE THE ARAB REACTION TO THIS NEW CRISIS WITH THE ARAB REACTION TO THE SIMILAR CRISIS IN FEBRUARY 98, WE FIND A HUGE DIFFERENCE. ... THE WAY THE PREVIOUS IRAQI CRISES AROSE AND DIED DOWN STRENGTHENED THE ARABS' BELIEF THAT THIS CURRENT IRAQI CRISIS WILL BE RESOLVED LIKE ONES BEFORE WHEN BOTH PARTIES BACK DOWN. THIS FACE COULD PROMPT THE UNITED STATES TO RESORT TO THE MILITARY OPTION WITHOUT HESITATION. TEXT: AND HOW DO THEY FEEL IN ISRAEL? TEL AVIV'S "HAARETZ" COMMENTED THURSDAY [11/12]: VOICE: THE IMPORTANCE OF DESTROYING IRAQI NONCONVENTIONAL WEAPONS AND MATERIAL CANNOT BE OVERESTIMATED, BUT IT IS EVEN MORE IMPORTANT TO NEUTRALIZE SADDAM'S ABILITY TO RESUME MANUFACTURING SUCH WEAPONS. ... MILITARY ACTION WILL ONLY MAKE SADDAM A HERO IN HIS OWN MIND AS WELL AS IN THE MINDS OF SOME ARAB COUNTRIES -- AND WILL MAKE THE U-S FEEL EVEN LONELIER IN ITS BATTLE AGAINST IRAQ. /// OPT /// TEXT: IN JORDAN'S ENGLISH-LANGUAGE PRESS, "THE JORDAN TIMES" ALSO IN AMMAN, SEES THE VALIDITY IN BOTH SIDES OF THE ARGUMENT. VOICE: THE SECURITY COUNCIL HAS REASON TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT IRAQ'S REFUSAL TO COOPERATE WITH UNSCOM (UN WEAPONS INSPECTORS). ON THE OTHER HAND, IRAQIS HAVE CAUSE FOR CONCERN ABOUT THE SUFFOCATION OF THEIR COUNTRY FOR NEARLY A DECADE.... THE IRAQI AUTHORITIES DID IN FACT COOPERATE WITH UNSCOM FOR SEVERAL YEARS AND THIS ... PROVES THAT UNDER APPROPRIATE CONDITIONS THIS KIND OF COOPERATION CAN BE RESUMED AND MAINTAINED. TEXT: AND IN NORTH AFRICA, MOROCCO'S FRENCH-LANGUAGE "LIBERATION" SUGGESTS THE OUTCOME IS, AT THIS POINT, ESSENTIALLY PRE-ORDAINED. VOICE: EVEN IF [UN SECRETARY-GENERAL] KOFI ANNAN DECIDES TO GO TO BAGHDAD, HIS MISSION WOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANCE FOR SUCCESS.... THE U-S ADMINISTRATION HAS ALWAYS PUT GETTING RID OF SADDAM HUSSEIN AS A CONDITION FOR LIFTING THE EMBARGO. /// END OPT /// TEXT: TO THE SOUTH PACIFIC NOW, AND ISLAMIC INDONESIA, WHERE "SUARA PEMBARUAN" IN JAKARTA HOLDS OUT HOPE. VOICE: A CHANCE FOR DIPLOMACY STILL EXISTS. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT THE U-S HAS TWICE, MOMENTS BEFORE LAUNCHING ATTACKS, CONVINCED IRAQ TO 'SURRENDER.' ... IT SEEMS THAT SADDAM HAS TWO OBSESSIONS: ELIMINATION OF U-S INTERFERENCE AND INFLUENCE, INCLUDING IN UNSCOM; AND REMOVAL OF THE EIGHT-YEAR-OLD ECONOMIC SANCTIONS. IF IRAQ WERE FULLY SOVEREIGN, IT WOULD BE THE MAJOR MIDDLE EAST POWER. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE SOLUTION TO THIS CONFLICT MUST BE WISE. TEXT: IN KARACHI, ONE OF PAKISTAN'S BIGGEST PAPERS, "JANG" POINTS OUT THAT: VOICE: ... BY DESTROYING IRAQ, THE U-S WANTS TO PROVIDE PERMANENT PROTECTION TO ISRAEL AND TO ACHIEVE THIS END, IT IS USING THE ARABS.... TO WHAT EXTENT THE IRAQI NATION, THE INNOCENT IRAQI CHILDREN, THE OLD PEOPLE AND THE IRAQI WOMEN HAVE A SAY IN THESE DECISIONS? WHEN WILL THEY GET THEIR BASIC HUMAN RIGHT TO LIVE?" /// OPT /// TEXT: IN NORTH ASIA, ONE OF SOUTH KOREA'S BIGGEST DAILIES, "HANKOOK ILBO" HOLDS OUT HOPE FOR A COMPROMISE AT THE LAST SECOND. VOICE: ... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT HUSSEIN WILL PERMIT WEAPONS INSPECTIONS AT THE LAST MINUTE AS HE DID IN OCTOBER OF LAST YEAR. TEXT: QUICKLY TO SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, WHERE KENYA'S "DAILY NATION" IN NAIROBI OPINES: VOICE: FROM WHATEVER ANGLE ONE LOOKS AT THE SITUATION, IT IS PRESIDENT SADDAM HUSSEIN WHO CAN HELP DEFUSE THE LATEST TENSION IN THE GULF. /// END OPT /// TEXT: AND IN LATIN AMERICA, BRAZIL'S HUGE "O ESTADO DE SAO PAULO" RAN THIS FROM ITS MAN IN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY [11/12]: VOICE: THE NEW CHALLENGE POSED BY THE IRAQI PRESIDENT TO THE U-S AND THE U-N LEAVES [PRESIDENT] CLINTON IN A DILEMMA. IF HE STARTS THE BOMBING UNDER PREPARATION, HE WILL STRENGTHEN SADDAM POLITICALLY, EVERY DAY THE IRAQI LEADER AND HIS REGIME SURVIVE THE BOMBS IN BAGHDAD. TEXT: FINISHING UP IN EUROPE, LONDON'S "FINANCIAL TIMES IS CLEARLY WORRIED: VOICE: THE CURRENT CRISIS BETWEEN SADDAM AND THE WEST IS MORE SERIOUS THAN MANY EARLIER EPISODES. ... ALTHOUGH THERE IS MUCH TALK IN WASHINGTON, LONDON AND PARIS ABOUT LAUNCHING HEAVY BOMBARDMENTS THAT WOULD WEAKEN SADDAM, NO ONE IS SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING A GROUND OPERATION THAT WOULD BRING AN END TO HIS RULE. ALL THAT MAY BE ON THE TABLE IS THE HOPE THAT PERHAPS THE INSTABILITY PROVOKED BY MILITARY ACTION WOULD LEAD TO A COUP. TEXT: AND LASTLY, IN SOUTHERN GERMANY, THIS DISMAL FORECAST FROM "SUEDDEUTSCHE ZEITUNG" OF MUNICH. VOICE: THERE ARE TWO VERSIONS FOR THE END: WAR OR A BAD PEACE. ONLY ONE THING IS CLEAR, THERE WILL BE NO HAPPY END. TEXT: ON THAT NOTE, WE CONCLUDE THIS SAMPLING OF THE LATEST REACTION TO THE IMPENDING CONFLICT BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND BRITAIN AGAINST IRAQ. NEB/ANG/JO 12-Nov-98 4:50 PM EST (2150 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .