DATE=11/13/98 TYPE=ENGLISH PROGRAMS FEATURE NUMBER=7-30877 TITLE=CONFRONTING DICTATORS BYLINE=JUDITH LATHAM TELEPHONE=619-3464 DATELINE=WASHINGTON EDITOR=GARY EDQUIST CONTENT = (TAPE CUTS IN AUDIO SERVICES) INTRO: ONCE AGAIN THE UNITED STATES IS THREATENING TO USE MILITARY FORCE AGAINST A DICTATOR. VOA'S JUDITH LATHAM HAS TALKED WITH U-S POLICYMAKERS AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS ANALYSTS ABOUT THE EFFECT ON WORLD PEACE WHEN MILITARY THREATS ARE MADE, AND THEN WITHDRAWN. HERE'S ______ WITH A REPORT. TEXT: WHEN IRAQ STOPPED ALL COOPERATION WITH THE U-N ARMS INSPECTORS AT THE END OF OCTOBER, IT LED TO A CRISIS. THE UNITED STATES SAYS IRAQ CAN AVOID ATTACK BY PUBLICLY REVERSING ITS DECISION TO HALT THE WORK OF THE INSPECTORS. IN THE BALKANS LAST MONTH, NATO BACKED OFF ON ITS THREAT TO USE FORCE AGAINST YUGOSLAVIA WHEN PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC SIGNED A CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT. THERE ARE REPORTS THE YUGOSLAV LEADER HAS NOT FULLY COMPLIED WITH THE AGREEMENT, AND NATO SAYS THE THREAT OF AIR STRIKES IS STILL IN EFFECT. BUT ROBERT WALKER, SENIOR ADVISOR AT THE RAND CORPORATION IN WASHINGTON, D-C, AND FORMER AMBASSADOR TO NATO FROM JULY 1993 UNTIL JANUARY OF THIS YEAR, SAYS HE DOUBTS NATO WILL ACT. TAPE: CUT ONE -- WALKER (0:28) "THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SERIOUS QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER NATO WOULD EMPLOY AIR POWER OR ANY OTHER KIND OF MILITARY FORCE TO BACK UP THIS AGREEMENT. I NOTE, FOR EXAMPLE, THAT THE NATO ALLIES ONLY TOOK THE DECISION ACTUALLY TO USE FORCE AFTER IT HAD BECOME APPARENT THAT THERE WAS ABOUT TO BE AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE U-S NEGOTIATOR MR. HOLBROOKE AND PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC. SO, WE STILL DO NOT KNOW, WILL THE NATO ALLIES ACT IF THIS AGREEMENT DOESN'T WORK?" TEXT: CRITICS OF U-S FOREIGN POLICY HAVE COMPLAINED THAT THE UNITED STATES HAS NOT BEEN FORCEFUL ENOUGH IN DEALING WITH DICTATORS, AND THEY POINT TO YUGOSLAVIA AND IRAQ AS INSTANCES WHERE U-S WORDS AND ACTIONS ARE NOT IN TANDEM. RETIRED CAREER DIPLOMAT HELMUT SONNENFELDT, NOW WITH THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION, SAYS THE ADMINISTRATION HAS BEEN RELUCTANT TO USE FORCE WHEN CONFRONTING DICTATORS. TAPE: CUT TWO -- SONNENFELDT (0:54) "THERE IS AN AUTOCRAT OR DICTATOR INVOLVED IN EACH OF THOSE SITUATIONS, AND THESE PEOPLE ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO NEGOTIATE WITH. (OPT) BUT IN THE END, I TEND TO AGREE THAT, AT LEAST RECENTLY, THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF THREATENING IN THE HOPE THE THREATS WILL BE CREDIBLE AND THAT [MR.] MILOSEVIC IN SERBIA AND SADDAM HUSSEIN IN IRAQ WILL FEEL SUFFICIENTLY PRESSURED TO PARTICIPATE IN A REASONABLE NEGOTIATION. AND THEN WE HAVE IN THE LAST YEAR AT LEAST TRIED TO AVOID AS LONG AS POSSIBLE THE ACTUAL USE OF MILITARY FORCE. (END OPT) AND THE UPSHOT IS, UNFORTUNATELY THESE CULPRITS GET AWAY WITH THINGS THEY OUGHTN'T TO, AND THAT DOES LEAVE THE ADMINISTRATION OPEN TO CRITICISM THAT WE'RE NOT USING A SUFFICIENTLY FIRM HAND. IT'S HARD TO TELL WHAT MOTIVATES PEOPLE LIKE MILOSEVIC OR SADDAM HUSSEIN. BUT I THINK THEY'RE TESTING TO SEE WHERE THE LINES ARE, AND THEY PUSH AS FAR AS THEY CAN." TEXT: MR. SONNENFELDT SAYS U-S RELUCTANCE TO USE FORCE MAY HAVE ACTUALLY WEAKENED U-S FOREIGN POLICY AND EMBOLDENED YUGOSLAVIA'S SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC AND IRAQ'S SADDAM HUSSEIN. TAPE: CUT THREE -- SONNENFELDT (0:49) "I ASSUME HE FELT REASONABLY SAFE TO NOT ONLY IGNORE THE RESOLUTIONS BUT TO BRAZENLY FLOUT THEM AS FAR AS AS COOPERATION WITH UNSCOM IS CONCERNED. OF COURSE, HE HAS SENSED THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SECURITY COUNCIL AND DIFFERENCES IN THE OLD COALITION THAT WAS PUT TOGETHER IN THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION AT THE TIME OF THE PERSIAN GULF WAR IN 1990 AND '91. SO, HE EXPLOITS THESE DIFFERENCES, AND THE OBVIOUS HESITATION BY THE UNITED STATES TO USE FORCE. I'M AFRAID THE VACILLATIONS AND THE OSTENTATIOUS DISPLAY OF FORCE, AS IN THE CASE OF BOSNIA FLY-BYES AND MANEUVERS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD, PROBABLY HAVE UNDERMINED THE EFFICACY OF USING MERELY THREATS, AND AT SOME POINT I THINK CREDIBILITY WILL HAVE TO BE RESTORED." TEXT: MR. SONNENFELDT SAYS THE UNITED STATES MAY HAVE UNWITTINGLY ENCOURAGED SADDAM HUSSEIN'S OCTOBER DEFIANCE OF U-N RESOLUTIONS. TAPE: CUT FOUR -- SONNENFELDT (0:23) "I MUST SAY THE PRESUMPTION IS VERY STRONG THAT THE U-S HANDLING OF IRAQ THIS YEAR PARTICULARLY HAS FURTHER COMPLICATED THE ISSUE AND I THINK MERELY POSTPONED THE DAY WHEN THE U-S WILL HAVE TO USE MASSIVE FORCE. IN THINK IN FEBRUARY THE U-S WAS WILLING ENOUGH TO LET KOFI ANNAN GIVE IT A TRY AND HOLD HIM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AGREEMENT IF IT FAILED." TEXT: (OPT) DESPITE REPORTS THAT THE UNITED STATES IS VERY CLOSE TO EXERCISING A MILITARY OPTION, HELMUT SONNENFELDT SAYS HE IS SKEPTICAL. TAPE: CUT FIVE -- SONNENFELDT (0:32) "THERE WERE REPORTS LIKE THAT IN THE CASE OF KOSOVO -- THE 'CLOCK IS TICKING,' 'IT'S A MATTER OF DAYS, NOT WEEKS,' WHATEVER THE PHRASES WERE -- AND THEN THERE IS A SLIGHT CONCILIATORY MOVE BY MILOSEVIC, AND THINGS ARE PUT ON HOLD. AND WHO KNOWS, SADDAM HUSSEIN -- IT'S CONCEIVABLE THAT THE ADMINISTRATION, AND THE PRESIDENT HIMSELF, FEELS THERE'S NO ALTERNATIVE BUT TO LAUNCH A MASSIVE ATTACK. BUT, I'M HESITANT TO MAKE PREDICTIONS BECAUSE I'VE SEEN TOO MANY OF THESE THREATS WHICH WERE THEN SOMEHOW NOT EXECUTED AT THE LAST MINUTE." (END OPT) TEXT: MR. SONNENFELDT SAYS THE UNITED STATES SHOULD BE FAR MORE CAREFUL ABOUT USING THREATS OF MILITARY FORCE AND ACTING AS IF THEY WERE IMMINENT, AND THEN DOING NOTHING. TAPE: CUT SIX -- SONNENFELDT (0:56) "I THINK WE REALLY SHOULD NOT WASTE OUR CREDIBILITY. THREATS THAT DON'T PRODUCE REAL CONCESSIONS, AND THEN ARE NOT EXECUTED, I THINK ARE COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE. I THINK THE U-S HAS TO MAKE AN EFFORT TO TRY AND FIND A SETTLEMENT, AND IT HAS TO TRY AND GET ALLIES. BUT I THINK WHEN THAT EFFORT RUNS OUT, I THINK THE U-S OUGHT TO RESORT TO FORCE AND MAKE VERY CLEAR TO MILOSEVIC AND TO SADDAM HUSSEIN THAT THIS IS GOING TO GO ON CONTINUOUSLY, OR INTERMITTANTLY, AND WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE DAMAGING. BUT, I THINK THIS HASN'T BEEN A GOOD YEAR IN TERMS OF THREATS OF FORCE, AND THE ONLY MILITARY ACTION THAT WE HAVE TAKEN HAS BEEN IN RESPONSE TO THE BOMBING OF THE EMBASSIES IN EAST AFRICA. BUT, I DON'T THINK THAT REALLY DID MUCH GOOD AS FAR AS SADDAM HUSSEIN AND MILOSEVIC WERE CONCERNED IN BRINGING THEM TO A MORE REASONABLE POSTURE." TEXT: HELMUT SONNENFELDT OF THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION IN WASHINGTON, D-C, ON THE SUBJECT OF CONFRONTING DICTATORS. (SIGNED) 13-Nov-98 3:17 PM EST (2017 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .