DATE=11/16/98 TYPE=U-S OPINION ROUNDUP NUMBER=6-11009 TITLE=SADDAM HUSSEIN TAKES U-S TO THE BRINK ONCE MORE BYLINE=ANDREW N. GUTHRIE TELEPHONE=619-3335 DATELINE=WASHINGTON EDITOR=ASSIGNMENTS CONTENT= INTRO: A MAJOR MILITARY INTERVENTION IN IRAQ BY THE UNITED STATES AND BRITAIN HAS BEEN AVERTED BY LAST-MINUTE CONCESSIONS BY THE GOVERNMENT OF SADDAM HUSSEIN. THE IRAQI LEADER SENT WORD TO THE UNITED NATIONS THAT HE WOULD AGAIN ALLOW UNFETTERED INSPECTION OF HIS COUNTRY TO PREVENT THE CREATION AND STORAGE OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. THE UNITED STATES WAS POISED TO DELIVER A STRONG ATTACK AGAINST IRAQ, BUT THE PLANES WERE CALLED BACK, AND THE MISSILES, READY FOR LAUNCHING, REMAINED IN THE SILOS. NOW, THE NATION'S PRESS IS FIRING A BARRAGE OF COMMENTS REGARDING THIS LATEST EXERCISE IN BRINKMANSHIP, AND WE WELCOME _____________________ WHO HAS A SAMPLING FOR US IN TODAY'S U-S OPINION ROUNDUP. TEXT: WE BEGIN OUR SURVEY FAR OUT IN THE PACIFIC, WHERE HAWAII'S MAJOR EVENING DAILY, "THE HONOLULU STAR-BULLETIN," GREETED THE LAST-MINUTE CANCELLATION OF THE ATTACK THIS WAY. VOICE: THE WORLD HAS WITNESSED ANOTHER ROUND OF THE CAT-AND-MOUSE GAME BETWEEN SADDAM HUSSEIN AND THE WESTERN POWERS. ONCE AGAIN THE MOUSE HAS ESCAPED. WITH PRESIDENT CLINTON ON THE VERGE OF ORDERING BOMBING ATTACKS ON IRAQI MILITARY TARGETS, SADDAM PLEDGED TO RESUME COOPERATION WITH UNITED NATIONS WEAPONS INSPECTORS. .... EVEN AFTER BACKING DOWN, SADDAM WAS CLAIMING VICTORY. ... IT'S A REPEATING CYCLE OF FRUSTRATION FOR THE UNITED STATES, WHICH HAS BEEN FORCED TO PREPARE ITS FORCE TIME AND AGAIN TO LAUNCH PUNISHING RAIDS ON IRAQ FOR ITS DEFIANCE OF THE UNITED NATIONS, ONLY TO SEE SADDAM PULL BACK AT THE LAST MINUTE. .... SADDAM IS HOPING THE WORLD WILL TIRE OF THIS GAME AND ACCEPT HIS DEMAND TO END THE SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAQ. WASHINGTON HAS LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO HANG IN THERE AND TRY TO OUTLAST HIM. TEXT: MORE THAN FIVE-THOUSAND KILOMETERS AWAY, "THE BOSTON GLOBE" NOTES THAT THESE FALSE ALARMS COME AT A CONSIDERABLE EXPENSE TO THE UNITED STATES. VOICE: ONCE AGAIN SADDAM HUSSEIN APPEARS TO HAVE OUTWITTED THE UNITED STATES IN THE ONGOING CAT-AND-MOUSE GAME OVER HIS WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. ..... IN THE MEANTIME THE UNITED STATES HAS SPENT BILLIONS BUILDING UP ITS FORCES IN THE PERSIAN GULF, AND, MORE IMPORTANTLY, SADDAM HUSSEIN HAS BOUGHT TIME TO DEVELOP HIS HIDEOUS WEAPONS AWAY FROM THE PRYING EYES OF U-N ARMS INSPECTORS. THE PRESENT REVIVAL OF THIS TAWDRY DRAMA HAS BEEN GOING ON SINCE AUGUST 5, GIVING SADDAM HUSSEIN MORE THAN THREE MONTHS WITHOUT WEAPONS INSPECTIONS. ... IF THE INSPECTORS ARE NOT ALLOWED BACK INTO IRAQ, AND IF COOPERATION WITH THEM IS NOT COMPLETE, THEN THE RETRIBUTION WHICH THE UNITED STATES WAS POISED TO DELIVER SHOULD COME AT ONCE AND IN A SUSTAINED WAY WITHOUT FURTHER DITHERING. TEXT: IN THE VIEW OF "USA TODAY" THE NATIONAL, WEEKDAY PAPER, [THE] "U-S POSITION IMPROVES, BUT THE CRISIS HAS ONLY BEEN POSTPONED." AND THE PAPER GOES ON TO SAY SADDAM HUSSEIN WAS NOT THE ONLY ONE TO GET A REPRIEVE. VOICE: PRESIDENT CLINTON'S ELEVENTH-HOUR DECISION TO PUT WAR ON HOLD IS AS MUCH A REPRIEVE FOR [BILL] CLINTON AS IT IS FOR SADDAM HUSSEIN. IT GIVES THE PRESIDENT A CHANCE TO ERASE THREE MONTHS OF BUNGLED POLICY AND ONCE AGAIN SEIZE THE INITIATIVE FROM SADDAM. THE QUESTION IS, WILL [MR.] CLINTON AVOID REPEATING THE MISTAKES THAT LED TO THIS WEEKEND'S DRAMA? ... WHEN SADDAM NEXT TRIES TO RESTRAIN THE INSPECTORS -- AND THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT HE WILL -- THE ADMINISTRATION HAS UNEQUIVOCAL GROUNDS TO RESPOND FORCEFULLY. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER IT INTENDS TO DO SO. /// OPT /// IN BAGHDAD ... IRAQI VICE PRESIDENT TAHA YASSIN RAMADAN .... SAID THIS CONFRONTATION JUST PROVED THAT AMERICANS WERE MISGUIDED IN THEIR AGGRESSION AGAINST IRAQ. THERE WAS NO SIGN THAT SADDAM IS BACKING OFF HIS LONG-TERM GOAL OF GETTING SANCTIONS LIFTED WITHOUT GIVING UP HIS WEAPONS PROGRAMS./// END OPT /// TEXT: ONE OF THE LEAST FAVORABLE COMMENTS ON HOW PRESIDENT CLINTON HANDLED THIS LATEST CONFRONTATION COMES FROM COLUMNIST WILLIAM SAFIRE, WRITING IN "THE NEW YORK TIMES." HE CALLS THE DECISION TO ABORT THE ATTACK "AN UNPRECEDENTED DISPLAY OF PRESIDENTIAL IRRESOLUTION," AND WORRIES THAT THIS IS JUST PUTTING OFF THE INEVITABLE. VOICE: THE CENTRAL QUESTION REMAINS: IS OFF-AND-ON INSPECTING THE BEST OUTCOME? CONSIDER WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN, BASED ON WHAT HAS GONE BEFORE. SADDAM, HAVING 'BACKED DOWN' YET AGAIN, WILL LET THE INSPECTORS GO WHEREVER THEY WANT FOR THE NEXT THREE TO SIX MONTHS. THAT COSTS HIM NOTHING: SADDAM HAS RESHUFFLED THE DECK, AS OUR SCOTT RITTER, THE FORMER U-S MILITARY MAN WHO QUIT THE UNITED NATIONS WEAPONS INSPECTION TEAM IN BAGHDAD OUT OF DISGUST OVER U-S POLICY] PUTS IT, AND IT WILL TAKE AT LEAST THAT LONG FOR THE C-I-A ..... TO SUGGEST THE NEW HIDING PLACES IN A LARGE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE, IRAQ'S ANTHRAX AND NERVE-GAS STOCKPILING WILL PROCEED APACE, AS REPLACEMENT RUSSIANS AND OTHERS ON THE U-N INSPECTION TEAM TIP OFF THE EX-SPYMASTER YEVGENY PRIMAKOV TO ITS PLANS, THEREBY INSURING THAT NO 'SURPRISE' INSPECTIONS ACTUALLY SURPRISE. ... CONTRARY TO [MR.] CLINTON'S BELIEF, THE 'BEST OUTCOME' IS NOT THE STATUS QUO; IT IS THE REMOVAL OF THE GROWING THREAT. TEXT: LASTLY, IN "THE WASHINGTON TIMES," MORE FRUSTRATION, AND THE SUGGESTION THAT, LIKE MR. SAFIRE SAYS, THE LAST-MINUTE AGREEMENT WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE IN THE LONG RUN. VOICE: EVENTS OVER THE WEEKEND WERE NOTHING SHORT OF ASTONISHING. ..... SO, THE AIRSTRIKES WERE CALLED OFF - - FOR THE FIFTH TIME, ONE MIGHT ADD - - AS WE WERE INFORMED BY CLINTON ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS SUNDAY MORNING. THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WENT INTO CRISIS OVERDRIVE, PULLING AN ALL-NIGHTER TO PONDER WHAT NEXT TO DO. MEANWHILE, THE COALITION SUPPORT FOR ACTION EVAPORATED FASTER THAN DEW IN THE DESSERT. ..... MEANWHILE, IT IS CERTAIN BEYOND DOUBT THAT SADDAM HUSSEIN WILL REPEAT HIS OLD PATTERNS OF CONCEALMENT AND PARTIAL COMPLIANCE, AT LEAST UNTIL WE GET TIRED OF PLAYING HIS GAME. ... ULTIMATELY, REMOVING SADDAM FROM POWER IS THE REAL SOLUTION, BUT IT IS NOT ONE THAT HAS BEEN EMBRACED BY THE WHITE HOUSE BEFORE. TEXT: ON THAT NOTE, WE CONCLUDE THIS SAMPLING OF COMMENT ON THE LAST-MINUTE CANCELLATION OF MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAQ. NEB/ANG/ KL 16-Nov-98 1:59 PM EST (1859 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .