DATE=11/17/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41894
TITLE=WHAT NEXT FOR IRAQ?
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRODUCTION:  MOST OF THE WEST SEEMS TO AGREE THAT SADDAM 
HUSSEIN IS A THREAT THAT NEEDS TO BE ELIMINATED OR RENDERED 
HARMLESS, BUT HOW IS THIS TO BE DONE?  THERE AGREEMENT ENDS, 
BECAUSE IRAQ IS A COMPLEX CASE THAT DEFIES SIMPLE SOLUTIONS.  
V-O-A'S ED WARNER REPORTS THE VIEWS OF TWO ANALYSTS STRUGGLING 
WITH THE ISSUE.

TEXT:  ONCE AGAIN, IRAQ'S SADDAM HUSSEIN HAS STARTED A CRISIS, 
THEN ENDED IT.  THE WEST'S PATIENCE WEARS THIN, BUT WHAT IS THE 
NEXT STEP? 

AN OCCUPATION ARMY CAN MARCH INTO BAGHDAD AND TAKE OVER, SAYS 
ANTHONY SULLIVAN, AN ASSOCIATE AT THE CENTER FOR MIDDLE EASTERN 
AND NORTH AFRICAN STUDIES AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN.  BUT 
SHORT OF THAT, MR SULLIVAN DOUBTS ALL OF SADDAM HUSSEIN'S WEAPONS
OF MASS DESTRUCTION CAN EVER BE FOUND.  EVEN IF THEY ARE, 
SCIENTISTS IN IRAQ CAN QUICKLY RECREATE THEM. 

MR. SULLIVAN SAYS SADDAM HUSSEIN HAS PROVED HE CAN WITHSTAND THE 
PUNISHMENT OF BOMBING, AND A SUSTAINED AIR CAMPAIGN COULD COST AN
ESTIMATED 10-THOUSAND IRAQI CASUALTIES, WHICH WOULD OUTRAGE THE 
MUSLIM WORLD. 

DETERRENCE WORKED WITH THE SOVIET UNION, SAYS MR. SULLIVAN.  IT 
SHOULD SUFFICE FOR A LESSER FIGURE LIKE SADDAM HUSSEIN.  ANY 
AGGRESSIVE MOVE ON HIS PART WOULD BE MET WITH MASSIVE 
RETALIATION: 

                      /// SULLIVAN ACT ///

         IF SADDAM INVADES KUWAIT AGAIN, THAT WILL LEAD TO "SON 
         OF DESERT STORM."  THERE IS  NO  QUESTION ABOUT THAT, 
         AND THERE SHOULD BE  NO  MISUNDERSTANDING ANYWHERE IN 
         THE WORLD ABOUT THAT.  THAT WOULD BE THE WORST MISTAKE 
         SADDAM COULD EVER MAKE.  HE MADE IT ONCE, AND HE SHOULD 
         NOT MAKE IT AGAIN.

                         /// END ACT ///

HE SHOULD ALSO BE KEPT IN PERSPECTIVE, SAYS JOHN LENCZOWSKI, 
DIRECTOR OF THE INSTITUTE OF WORLD POLITICS, A GRADUATE SCHOOL IN
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS IN WASHINGTON.  SADDAM HUSSEIN IS AN 
UNDESIRABLE CHARACTER, TO SAY THE LEAST:

                  /// FIRST LENCZOWSKI ACT ///

         BUT DOES THAT MEAN HIS UNDESIRABILITY CROSSES THE 
         THRESHOLD OF VIOLATING OUR MOST VITAL INTERESTS?  I DO  
         NOT  PERSONALLY POSSESS SUFFICIENT KNOWLEDGE TO BE ABLE 
         TO COME TO THAT CONCLUSION.  IN THE ABSENCE OF A MORE 
         COMPELLING CASE, I HAVE TO CONCLUDE THAT HIS CONTINUED 
         EXISTENCE IN POWER, HOWEVER UNPLEASANT, IS  NOT  
         NECESSARILY A THREAT TO OUR MOST VITAL INTERESTS.

                         /// END ACT ///

MR. LENCZOWSKI SAYS PRESSURE MUST BE MAINTAINED ON THE IRAQI 
LEADER, BUT THERE MUST ALSO BE SOME INCENTIVE FOR HIM TO CHANGE:

                  /// SECOND LENCZOWSKI ACT ///

         IF THE SANCTIONS WILL  NOT  BE LIFTED  NO  MATTER WHAT 
         SADDAM DOES, THEN IN EFFECT, THOSE SANCTIONS  NO  LONGER
         EXERCISE ANY LEVERAGE WHATSOEVER, BECAUSE  NO  MATTER 
         WHAT HE DOES DOES, THE SANCTIONS WILL REMAIN.  SO THE 
         NET RESULT IS THE SANCTIONS END UP HURTING LOTS OF 
         INNOCENT PEOPLE IN IRAQ, WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY OF THE 
         DESIRABLE RESULTS.

                         /// END ACT ///

IT IS U-S POLICY TO PRESERVE IRAQ AS A NATION.  BUT IF SADDAM 
HUSSEIN IS SOMEHOW OVERTHROWN, CAN THAT BE ASSURED?  MR. SULLIVAN
DOUBTS THERE IS ANY LIKELY SUCCESSOR, AMONG THE LEADERS OF THE 
FRAGMENTED OPPOSITION, WHO COULD HOLD THE STATE TOGETHER. 

                   /// SECOND SULLIVAN ACT ///

         IF THIS EVIL REGIME IS DESTROYED, YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE 
         A SHIA SOUTH, A SUNNI CENTER AND A KURDISH NORTH, AND 
         ALL SORTS OF PLAYERS ARE GOING TO GET INVOLVED ON THE 
         FIELD.  THE IRANIANS WILL BE DELIGHTED.  YOU MAY HAVE A 
         NEW SHIA BLOC -- IRAN, [AND] SOUTHERN IRAQ, WHO KNOWS? 
         ARE WE THINKING OF THESE CONSEQUENCES?

                         /// END ACT ///

ANTHONY SULLIVAN AND JOHN LENCZOWSKI SAY THE IRAQI STATUS QUO IS 
BAD ENOUGH, BUT IT COULD BE WORSE.   (SIGNED)

NEB/EW/WTW

17-Nov-98 6:27 PM EST (2327 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.