DATE=11/20/98 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-41926 TITLE=U-N / IRAQ BYLINE=ANDRE DE NESNERA DATELINE=WASHINGTON CONTENT= VOICED AT: // EDS -- THIS IS THE SECOND OF TWO REPORTS ON UNSCOM // INTRO: U-N WEAPONS INSPECTORS ARE BACK TO WORK IN IRAQ AFTER ANOTHER CRISIS WAS AVERTED -- BUT ONLY AFTER A LAST MINUTE BACKDOWN FROM BAGDHAD IN THE FACE OF U-S MILITARY ACTION. V-O-A CORRESPONDENT ANDRE DE NESNERA SPOKE WITH TWO FORMER U-N INSPECTORS ABOUT THEIR EXPERIENCES WITH THE IRAQIS -- AND HE FILED THIS REPORT FROM WASHINGTON. TEXT: U-N WEAPONS INSPECTORS ARE BACK ON THE JOB AFTER IRAQI LEADER SADDAM HUSSEIN PROMISED TO COOPERATE FULLY WITH THE UNITED NATIONS BODY KNOWN AS "UNSCOM." IRAQIS HAVE PROMISED TO COOPERATE WITH U-N INSPECTORS IN THE PAST ONLY TO RENEGE ON THEIR PLEDGE. AND SEVERAL FORMER U-N INSPECTORS QUESTION WHETHER THIS LATEST IRAQI ASSURANCE IS INDEED GENUINE. TIM TREVAN -- NOW A DEFENSE ANALYST IN LONDON -- IS ONE OF THOSE FORMER INSPECTORS. HE SAYS "UNSCOM" INSPECTORS AND IRAQ ENGAGE IN AN ELABORATE "CAT AND MOUSE" GAME. MR. TREVAN SAYS THE IRAQIS HAVE A CONSISTENT PATTERN OF BEHAVIOR IN TRYING TO CONCEAL THEIR CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS PROGRAMS. HE SAYS IT BEGINS BY IRAQ LYING ABOUT ITS CURRENT OR PAST LEVELS OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION UNTIL U-N INSPECTORS HAVE SOLID EVIDENCE TO THE CONTRARY -- WHICH MAKES THE IRAQI STORY NO LONGER TENABLE. // TREVAN ACT // AT THAT STAGE, THE IRAQIS COME AND TRY TO ASCERTAIN FROM 'UNSCOM' EXACTLY WHAT 'UNSCOM' KNOWS, SO THEY CAN MINIMIZE THEIR ADDITIONAL DECLARATIONS TO THE INFORMATION THAT 'UNSCOM' HAS. 'UNSCOM' TRIES TO AVOID LETTING ON PRECISELY WHAT IT KNOWS -- SO IRAQ MAKES A NEW DECLARATION. THAT NEW DECLARATION IS STILL FALSE, BUT IT JUST ADMITS THAT LITTLE BIT MORE TO COVER THE DISCOVERIES OF 'UNSCOM.' 'UNSCOM' THEN HAS TO GO AND FIND MORE EVIDENCE TO PROVE THE NEW STORY FALSE -- AND SO IT GOES ON WITH THE IRAQIS RETREATING INCREMENTALLY WITH EACH NEW SET OF CONTRADICTORY EVIDENCE THAT 'UNSCOM' UNEARTHS. // END ACT // MR. TREVAN SAYS HE DOES NOT BELIEVE IRAQ'S BASIC STRATEGY HAS CHANGED. COLONEL TERRY TAYLOR, ANOTHER ANALYST BASED IN LONDON, IS ALSO A FORMER "UNSCOM" INSPECTOR -- AND HE HAS HAD SIMILAR EXPERIENCES. // TAYLOR ACT // COOPERATION -- I SUPPOSE I COULD SAY -- VARIED, DEPENDING ON THE NATURE OF THE MISSION. WHEN ONE GOT NEAR SENSITIVE INFORMATION OR SENSITIVE PLACES, THERE WAS OBSTRUCTION AND DIFFICULTIES WERE RAISED AND SOMETIMES THE SITUATION BECAME VERY TENSE. // END ACT // DESPITE IRAQ'S ATTEMPTS AT CONCEALEMENT, BOTH FORMER WEAPONS INSPECTORS SAY THE U-N PROGRAM HAS BEEN VERY SUCCESSFUL IN UNEARTHING BAGDHAD'S PROGRAMS TO PRODUCE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. ONCE AGAIN -- TIM TREVAN. // 2ND TREVAN ACT // IT HAS BEEN EXTRAORDINARILY SUCCESSFUL. AND IF YOU THINK THAT THE STARTING POINT WAS THAT IRAQ DECLARED IT HAD NO NUCLEAR PROGRAM, IT HAD NO BIOLOGICAL PROGRAM, IT HAD NO 'SUPER GUNS' -- 'UNSCOM' AND THE I-A-E-A (INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY) BETWEEN THEM, HAVE PROVED EACH OF THOSE THREE STATEMENTS GROSSLY FALSE -- AND HAVE DESTROYED VAST QUANTITIES OF BUILDINGS, EQUIPMENT AND MATERIALS FOR MAKING THOSE THREE TYPES OF WEAPONS. // END ACT // TIM TREVAN SAYS WESTERN POLICY MAKERS MUST ADDRESS THE FUNDAMENTAL QUESTION AS TO WHETHER IRAQI LEADER SADDAM HUSSEIN WILL EVER GIVE UP HIS AMBITION TO OBTAIN WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. THE FORMER WEAPONS INSPECTOR SAYS IF THE IRAQI LEADER WILL NEVER GIVE UP THAT AMBITION, THEN ANY KIND OF DISARMAMENT MONITORING IS ONLY TEMPORARY -- WHAT HE DESCRIBED AS "A BAND-AID MEASURE." (SIGNED) NEB/ADEN/KL 20-Nov-98 1:31 PM EST (1831 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .