DATE=12/21/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42200
TITLE=IRAQ: WHAT NEXT?
BYLINE=SCOTT BOBB
DATELINE=AMMAN
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  WITH THE END OF THE U-S AND BRITISH AIR STRIKES AGAINST 
IRAQ, ATTENTION IS NOW FOCUSING ON WHAT TO DO NEXT.  THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY STILL SEEKS TO CONTAIN IRAQ'S EFFORTS TO 
REBUILD ITS ARSENAL OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION.  BUT IT ALSO 
WANTS TO PROTECT THE IRAQI PEOPLE FROM THE PUNISHING ECONOMIC 
SANCTIONS IN FORCE SINCE THE END OF THE GULF WAR.  V-O-A MIDDLE 
EAST CORRESPONDENT SCOTT BOBB HAS BEEN TALKING TO POLITICAL 
EXPERTS IN THE REGION AND HAS THIS REPORT ON WHAT NEXT FOR IRAQ?

TEXT:  THE U-S AND BRITISH AIR STRIKES AGAINST IRAQ THIS PAST 
WEEK HAVE UNDERSCORED A GROWING RIFT IN THE INTERNATIONAL 
COMMUNITY OVER HOW TO DEAL WITH THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT AND PREVENT 
ANY NEW AGGRESSION BY IT.

THERE IS A RELATIVELY SOLID CONSENSUS ON ONE ISSUE -- THAT IT 
WOULD BE BEST TO HAVE A DIFFERENT GOVERNMENT IN BAGHDAD.  BUT 
OPINION LEADERS LIKE A POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR AT THE 
UNIVERSITY OF KUWAIT, ABDULLAH SHAIJI, BELIEVE AIR STRIKES ARE 
NOT THE SOLUTION.

                      ///  SHAIJI ACT  ///

         THERE IS REALLY  NO  END GAME.  THERE IS  NO  STRATEGY. 
         AND WE HOPE THAT THIS STRIKE COULD MATERIALIZE IN ONCE 
         AND FOR ALL TOPPLING OFF THIS EVIL REGIME IN BAGHDAD.  
         BUT UNFORTUNATELY, IT DOESN'T SEEM THAT THIS OPERATION 
         WILL LEAD TO THAT END. 

                        ///  END ACT  ///

///  OPT  ///   OPINION LEADERS HERE SAY THE ARAB WORLD  NO  
LONGER SUPPORTS MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAQ.  THEY NOTE THAT 
MOST ARAB GOVERNMENTS CRITICIZED THE AIR STRIKES.  AND THE POPULAR DEMONSTRATIONS THAT ERUPTED ACROSS THE REGION PUT 
PRESSURE ON GOVERNMENTS TO ADOPT AN EVEN MORE CRITICAL PUBLIC 
STANCE.

///  OPT  ///  MOREOVER, ARAB ANALYSTS NOTE THAT THREE OF THE 
FIVE PERMANENT MEMBERS OF THE U-N SECURITY COUNCIL -- CHINA, 
FRANCE, AND RUSSIA -- DID  NOT  SUPPORT THE STRIKES, CAUSING A 
SPLIT IN THE BODY THAT ORIGINALLY AUTHORIZED THE USE OF MILITARY 
FORCE.   ///  END OPT  ///

ARAB OPINION LEADERS SAY IT IS TIME FOR A REVIEW OF THE POLICY 
TOWARD IRAQ.  THEY SAY THE FIRST THING TO DO IS TO END THE 
ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAQ, BECAUSE IT IS CLEAR THEY HAVE  
NOT  WORKED. 

THEY SAY THAT IF IRAQ'S ABILITY TO PRODUCE WEAPONS OF MASS 
DESTRUCTION HAS BEEN DESTROYED, AS CLAIMED BY THE U-S AND BRITISH
GOVERNMENTS, THEN THERE IS  NO  REASON FOR MAINTAINING SANCTIONS,
WHICH ARE STARVING THE IRAQI PEOPLE AND INFLAMING ANGER IN THE 
ARAB WORLD.

POLITICAL ANALYSTS SAY MOST PEOPLE IN THE REGION DO  NOT  BELIEVE
IRAQ IS A MILITARY THREAT ANY LONGER.  BUT IN ORDER TO MAKE SURE,
AIR SURVEILLANCE BY WESTERN POWERS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG 
WITH THE THREAT OF FORCE SHOULD IRAQ RESUME ITS WEAPONS 
PRODUCTION.

THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF JORDAN'S AL-DESTOUR NEWSPAPER, NABIL 
AL-SHARIF, SAYS IT IS ALSO VERY IMPORTANT TO RESTORE THE 
CREDIBILITY OF THE UNITED NATIONS, WHICH HAS BEEN DAMAGED BY THE 
WORK OF THE U-N SPECIAL COMMISSION -- UNSCOM -- AND ITS CHIEF, 
RICHARD BUTLER.

                     ///  AS-SHARIF ACT  ///

         UNSCOM HAS REALLY LOST ALL CREDIBILITY, ALL OBJECTIVITY 
         IN THE MINDS OF THE PEOPLE IN THE REGION.  BUT THERE IS 
         A LOT OF RESPECT FOR MR. KOFI ANNAN, FOR THE U-N, AND I 
         THINK THE U-N SHOULD BE THE AGENCY THAT OVERSEES IRAQ'S 
         COMPLIANCE WITH U-N RESOLUTIONS. 

                        ///  END ACT  ///

IRAQI OFFICIALS SAY THEY WILL  NOT  ALLOW THE RETURN OF UNSCOM, 
WHICH WAS FORMED AT THE END OF THE GULF WAR.  AND MANY ANALYSTS 
IN THE REGION SAY IT MAY BE TIME TO CREATE ANOTHER AGENCY FOR 
IRAQ, ONE THAT IS LESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAR AND WITH A 
DIFFERENT LEADERSHIP.

///  OPT  ///   THE EDITOR OF THE IRAQ'S BAGHDAD OBSERVER 
NEWSPAPER, KHADAYAR AHMED, SAYS IT IS TIME FOR DIPLOMACY TO TAKE 
THE LEAD.

                  ///  OPT  //  ADMED ACT  ///

         THERE MUST BE DIPLOMATIC COMMUNICATION TO SOLVE 
         OUTSTANDING ISSUES.  SO I ASSUME THE DIPLOMATIC 
         COMMUNICATIONS WILL CONTINUE OR BE RESUMED. 

                 ///  END ACT  //  END OPT  ///

MANY OPINION LEADERS IN THE REGION SAY IT ALSO IS TIME TO END 
IRAQ'S OUTCAST STATUS AND, AS LONG AS IRAQ DOES  NOT  POSE A 
THREAT TO ITS NEIGHBORS, RESTORE ITS POSITION IN THE ARAB 
COMMUNITY.

THEY SAY THE ROLE OF THE ARAB LEAGUE, WHICH HAS BEEN MARGINALIZED
BECAUSE OF THE IRAQI CONFLICT, SHOULD BE REVITALIZED, AS ANOTHER 
ALTERNATIVE TO VIOLENCE.

MR. AL-SHARIF NOTES THERE IS ONE ADDITIONAL OPTION WHICH HAS YET 
TO BE TAKEN.

                     ///  AL-SHARIF ACT  ///

         IT'S UNFORTUNATE THAT EVERYTHING HAS BEEN USED AGAINST 
         IRAQ MILITARILY, BUT  NOT  ONE SIMPLE OPTION HAS BEEN 
         TRIED, WHICH IS DIRECT COMMUNICATION WITH IRAQ.  HIS 
         MAJESTY KING HUSSEIN (OF JORDAN) HAS CALLED FOR THAT 
         OPTION TO BE EXPLORED -- THAT THERE SHOULD BE A A 
         DIALOGUE, A DIRECT DIALOGUE BETWEEN IRAQ AND THE U-S. 

                        ///  END ACT  ///

INDEPENDENT OBSERVERS SAY THIS OPTION MAY BE THE MOST DIFFICULT 
TO IMPLEMENT, BECAUSE OF THE DISTRUST BUILT UP BETWEEN THE U-S 
AND IRAQI GOVERNMENTS SINCE THE GULF WAR.

                     ///  REST OPTIONAL  ///

NEVERTHELESS, THEY SAY THE SITUATION HAS CHANGED SINCE THE 
INTERNATIONAL COALITION DROVE IRAQ FROM KUWAIT AND IMPOSED 
SANCTIONS AND WEAPONS MONITORING.

THEY SAY THE COALITION  NO  LONGER EXISTS, AND U-S AND BRITISH 
POLICY ON IRAQ IS ISOLATED INTERNATIONALLY.  AND, THEY CONCLUDE, 
IF THIS POLICY IS MAINTAINED, IT WILL BRING ONLY INCREASED 
RESISTANCE FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY AND RISING 
CONFRONTATION WITH THE ARAB WORLD.  (SIGNED)

NEB/SB/JWH

21-Dec-98 11:04 AM EST (1604 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.