DATE=12/22/98 TYPE=U-S OPINION ROUNDUP NUMBER=6-11065 TITLE=ASSESSING THE ATTACK ON IRAQ BYLINE=ANDREW N. GUTHRIE TELEPHONE=619-3335 DATELINE=WASHINGTON EDITOR=ASSIGNMENTS CONTENT= INTRO: THE UNITED STATES MILITARY IS CLOSELY ANALYZING THE RESULTS OF FOUR DAYS OF INTENSIVE MISSILE AND AIRCRAFT ATTACKS ON IRAQ, WHILE THE NATION'S NEWS MEDIA IS COMING FORTH WITH ITS OWN ASSESSMENT. SOME PAPERS ARE SAYING WHATEVER THE ATTACKS ACCOMPLISHED, THE PROBLEM OF SADDAM HUSSEIN AND HIS COVERT WEAPONS-BUILDING PROGRAM REMAINS, AND SEVERAL SAY IT TIME FOR A POLICY REASSESSMENT. WE GET A SAMPLING OF COMMENTS LIKE THAT NOW FROM _______________IN TODAY'S U-S OPINION ROUNDUP. TEXT: A FRONT PAGE NEWS ANALYSIS IN MONDAY'S "BOSTON GLOBE" SUGGESTS THAT THE FOUR DAYS OF CONCERTED ATTACKS MAY HAVE LESS IMPACT THAT THE U-S MILITARY MIGHT HAVE WISHED. AS REPORTED BY FRED KAPLAN, "THE GLOBE" REPORTS:"IF HIS [PRESIDENT CLINTON'S] AIM WAS TO PUT A DENT IN SADDAM HUSSEIN'S ABILITY TO PRODUCE CHEMICAL, NUCLEAR, AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS, THE DENT WAS NOT A LARGE ONE. IF, AS SOME OF THE AIR WAR'S TARGETS SUGGESTED, [MR.] CLINTON WAS TRYING TO DESTABILIZE HUSSEIN'S REGIME, HE DID NOT!HIT ITS FOUNDATIONS HARD ENOUGH/ SPEAKING OF THE PENTAGON'S!ESTIMATES OF DAMAGE, JOHN PIKE,!A SPECIALIST WITH THE FEDERATION OF AMERICAN SCIENTISTS, SAID ... -- IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THEY DID ANYTHING ON WHAT THEY SAID THEY WERE GOING TO DO, AND NOT ENOUGH ON WHAT THEY WERE ACTUALLY DOING. THE PENTAGON HAS ANNOUNCED THAT THE BOMBING AND MISSILES HIT A TOTAL OF 97 TARGETS OVER THE FOUR DAYS, BUT DID NOT DAMAGE BEYOND REPAIR MANY OF THOSE TARGETS, WHICH INCLUDED WEAPONS SITES, MILITARY HEADQUARTERS AND INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES. WE BEGIN OUR SAMPLING IN THE GREAT PLAINS, WHERE "THE OMAHA WORLD-HERALD" IS DISAPPOINTED WITH THE RESULT. VOICE: THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION SQUANDERED A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF GOOD WILL AROUND THE WORLD WITH ITS ATTACKS ON IRAQ -- WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE TO SHOW FOR IT. SECRETARY OF DEFENSE WILLIAM COHEN SAID IRAQ'S MISSILE PRODUCTION CAPABILITY WAS SET BACK A YEAR BY THE ... ATTACKS. BUT THE STATED GOAL WAS TO REDUCE OR DESTROY IRAQ'S CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE NUCLEAR, CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WARHEADS. ... IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE THE UNITED STATES GOES FROM HERE. ... SO FAR, THE MOST OBVIOUS RESULTS OF THE IMPEACHMENT-WEEK WAR ARE A SHARP DIVISION AMONG AMERICA'S ALLIES, THE TERMINATION OF THE WEAPONS INSPECTION PROGRAM AND THE SURVIVAL OF AT LEAST PART OF IRAQ'S FACILITIES FOR MAKING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. TEXT: "THE MIAMI HERALD" IS ALSO NOT CLEAR WHETHER THE AIR CAMPAIGN WAS WORTH IT, SUGGESTION THAT -- AN OMINOUS THREAT STILL REMAINS. VOICE: AFTER FOUR DAYS OF RAINING HIGH-TECH DESTRUCTION ON IRAQ, U-S AND BRITISH FORCES CAN CLAIM THAT THEIR MISSION IS COMPLETE, BUT THEY CANNOT CLAIM VICTORY. THAT IS THE TROUBLE WITH A LIMITED MILITARY OPERATION: ! THE RESULTS, LIKE THE MISSION, ALSO ARE LIMITED. ... WHATEVER THE ULTIMATE [DAMAGE] ASSESSMENT ... THE FACT REMAINS THAT IRAQ WAS NOT TOTALLY STRIPPED OF ITS WILL TO WREAK HAVOC, OR THE ABILITY TO REBUILD ITS DEADLY ARSENAL. ... THESE RESULTS CLEARLY ARE NOT WHAT MANY WHO BELIEVE SADDAM HUSSEIN TO BE AN UNSTABLE, EVIL FORCE HAD HOPED FOR OR WANTED. /// OPT /// ... THE OPERATION'S MOST IMPORTANT MESSAGE MAY HAVE BEEN TO PUT RENEWED FOCUS ON WHAT IS MISSING -- A LONG-TERM STRATEGY, WITH WIDE U-N BACKING, FOR DENYING SADDAM HUSSEIN THE CAPACITY TO BUILD AND USE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. /// END OPT /// TEXT: STILL IN FLORIDA, IN THE WAKE OF THE ATTACKS, "THE ORLANDO SENTINEL" SAYS -- A NEW IRAQ STRATEGY [IS] NEEDED -- ADDING: VOICE: THE RECENT AIR STRIKES ACCOMPLISHED LITTLE. NOW IS THE TIME FOR WASHINGTON TO CONSIDER OTHER WAYS OF ATTAINING A PROMPT SOLUTION TO THE RECURRING PROBLEMS WITH BAGHDAD. /// OPT /// ... DID THE AIRSTRIKES ELIMINATE THE PROBLEM OF IRAQ'S DANGEROUS BIOLOGICAL, CHEMICAL AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS? NO. DID THE AIRSTRIKES REMOVE DICTATOR SADDAM HUSSEIN? NO. DID THE AIRSTRIKES POINT TO A RESOLUTION OF THE IRAQ CRISIS? NO. /// END OPT /// ... DURING THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, AS THE OVERALL EFFECT OF THE AIRSTRIKES BECOMES BETTER UNDERSTOOD, THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES SHOULD GIVE THE IRAQ CRISIS A NEW LOOK [TO DEVELOP] A FRESH STRATEGY. TEXT: "THE DALLAS MORNING NEWS" ON THE OTHER HAND, FEELS THE ATTACKS MAY HAVE BEEN MORE EFFECTIVE THAN THEY APPEARED TO BE IN ORLANDO. VOICE: // OPT // IN FOUR DAYS, THE UNITED STATES AND BRITAIN RAINED DOWN MORE MISSILES AND BOMBS ON IRAQ THAN DURING THE ENTIRE PERSIAN GULF WAR IN 1991. // END OPT // AND EVEN THOUGH PRESIDENT SADDAM HUSSEIN IS CROWING THAT IRAQ HAS EMERGED 'VICTORIOUS,' DEVASTATION TO HIS NATION IS CERTAIN TO BE EXTENSIVE. ... THE RAIDS' MESSAGE REMAINS CLEAR: VIOLATIONS OF THE PEACE ACCORD ARE UNACCEPTABLE. REFUSAL TO PERMIT U-N INSPECTION TEAMS OPEN ACCESS WILL BE DEALT WITH FIRMLY. LESS CLEAR IS WHAT THE UNITED STATES AND BRITAIN SHOULD DO NOW TO MAKE CERTAIN THE ATTACK HAS ITS INTENDED IMPACT. TEXT: MAINE'S "PORTLAND PRESS HERALD" SAYS WHATEVER THE SUCCESS, OR LACK THEREOF, IN THE AIR CAMPAIGN -- SADDAM WILL BE [A] THREAT AS LONG AS HE'S AROUND. VOICE: THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION IS RIGHT, NOW, TO OPENLY ENCOURAGE INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL OPPOSITION TO SADDAM'S BRUTAL RULE. THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A GOVERNMENT-IN-EXILE BY THE OPPOSITION WOULD BE A LOGICAL NEXT STEP. A GOVERNMENT DEDICATED TO DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPLES SHOULD RECEIVE THE SUPPORT OF THE WEST; IRAQIS TAKING THE RISK OF OPPOSING A DESPOT WHO HAS WAGED WAR ON HIS OWN PEOPLE SHOULD KNOW THEY DO NOT STAND ALONE. // OPT // THE 70-HOUR AIR STRIKE WAS REMARKABLY SUCCESSFUL AS FAR AS IT WENT. VIRTUALLY EVERY MILITARY FACTORY IN THE COUNTRY WAS HIT, AND MANY WERE HEAVILY DAMAGED. TWENTY COMMAND-AND-CONTROL FACILITIES WERE TAKEN OUT, AT LEAST TEMPORARILY, AND NINE REPUBLICAN GUARD POSITIONS WERE ATTACKED. .... NONE OF THIS MEANS SADDAM'S RESOLVE TO CONTINUE THREATENING THE PEACE AND STABILITY OF THE REGION HAS BEEN LESSENED AT ALL. HIS ABILITY TO CARRY OUT THAT RESOLVE HAS BEEN WEAKENED, HOWEVER, AND HIS WEAPONS PROGRAM SET BACK. // END OPT // TEXT: BUT OPERATION " DESERT FOX" IS NOT GETTING SUCH RAVE REVIEWS IN "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL." VOICE: //OPT // IN ALL, 97 TARGETS WERE DESTROYED. SADDAM'S AIR DEFENSES, COMMAND AND CONTROL NETWORKS AND BARRACKS HOUSING HIS ELITE REPUBLICAN GUARDS WERE SEVERELY DAMAGED. HIS ABILITY TO MAKE BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL WEAPONS MAY HAVE BEEN AFFECTED, DESPITE AN ALLIED EFFORT TO AVOID EXPLODING HIGHLY LETHAL TOXINS INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. // END OPT // AS TO HIS [SADDAM'S] MISSILE PROGRAM, DEFENSE SECRETARY WILLIAM COHEN ESTIMATES THAT IT HAS BEEN 'SET BACK BY AT LEAST A YEAR.' IN OTHER WORDS ... [THE ATTACK] ... BOUGHT THE WORLD ONE YEAR'S ! RESPIUE FROM THE BAGHDAD MENACE, WHO BY NEXT CHRISTMAS COULD AGAIN BE THREATENING HIS NEIGHBORS AND EUROPE WITH LETHAL WEAPONS. ... HAS DESERT FOX INCREASED THE LIKELIHOOD OF A TRANSFER OF POWER IN IRAQ? MOST EXPERTS AGREE THE ANSWER IS NO. ... THE ATTACK WAS ... A CHILLING TESTAMENT TO THE INSUFFICIENCY OF POWER WITHOUT CREDIBLE LEADERSHIP. IT MAY BE CYNICISM TO SUGGEST THAT BILL CLINTON WENT TO WAR JUST TO CREATE A DIVERSION, [UNDERSTOOD HERE: "FROM THE IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS"] BUT THE POLITICAL DAMAGE INFLICTED BY THE WIDESPREAD BELIEF THAT HE MIGHT HAVE DONE SO CANNOT BE EASILY EXPUNGED. TEXT: WITH THAT, WE CONCLUDE THIS SAMPLING OF EDITORIAL COMMENT ON THE BOMBING AND MISSILE ATTACK ON IRAQ, AND WHERE THE U-S SHOULD GO FROM HERE. NEB/ANG/RAE 22-Dec-98 1:30 PM EST (1830 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .