DATE=12/22/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42217
TITLE=RESULTS OF BOMBING IRAQ
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:   WHAT DID THE U-S LED ATTACK ON IRAQ ACCOMPLISH? THAT 
QUESTION WAS DISCUSSED AT A WASHINGTON CONFERENCE, AND THE 
ANSWERS VARIED FROM PARTIAL SUCCESS TO NONE AT ALL. V-O-A'S ED 
WARNER REPORTS SOME OF THE CONTRASTING REACTIONS TO THE LATEST 
EFFORT TO SUPPRESS SADDAM HUSSEIN. 



TEXT:   INTELLIGENCE WAS BETTER. BOMBING WAS MORE PRECISE AND 
LESS INHIBITED. THAT WAS THE VIEW OF MICHAEL EISENSTADT, 
DISCUSSING THE U-S RAID ON IRAQ AT A RECENT MEETING OF THE 
WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY.

A MILITARY ANALYST AT THE INSTITUTE, MR. EISENSTADT SAID THE 
CLINTON ADMINISTRATION DESERVES SOME PRAISE FOR THE EFFORT: 

                      // EISENSTADT ACT //

         I THINK THE PRESIDENT AND HIS SENIOR ADVISERS SAID ALL 
         THE RIGHT THINGS. THE MILITARY HIT THE RIGHT TARGETS. 
         WITH THE CONTAINMENT REGIME TOTTERING AND LACKING 
         DOMESTIC SUPPORT FOR A MAJOR GROUND WAR TO UNSEAT 
         SADDAM, U-S DECISION MAKERS HAD TO SETTLE FOR HALF 
         MEASURES THAT WILL PROBABLY NEVER YIELD ANYTHING MORE 
         THAN PARTIAL RESULTS.

                          // END ACT //

LESS THAN PARTIAL, REPLIED ELIOT COHEN, DIRECTOR OF STRATEGIC 
STUDIES AT THE SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES AT JOHNS 
HOPKINS UNIVERSITY: 

                         // COHEN ACT //
     !   IF YOU ARE SADDAM HUSSEIN, SITTING THERE TODAY, AND TOU 
         ASK YOURSELF, "AM I BETTER OFF TODAY THAN I WAS A WEEK 
         AGO?" IT IS CONCEIVABLE TO ME THAT HIS ANSWER WOULD BE 
         "YES." 

                          // END ACT //

MR. COHEN SAID THE STRIKE WAS NOT PART OF ANY LARGER STRATEGY AND
SIMPLY LEAVES SADDAM HUSSEIN STRONGER THAN EVER BECAUSE HE HAS 
STOOD UP TO THE SUPERPOWER AND CAN NOW END THE WEAPONS 
INSPECTIONS.

THE ONLY SOUND STRATEGY IS TO REDUCE HIS MILITARY MANPOWER, SAID 
MR. COHEN. BUT THE UNITED STATES INSISTS ON KEEPING CASUALTIES ON
BOTH SIDES TO A MINIMUM. NOT A SINGLE AMERICAN OR BRITISH LIFE 
WAS LOST ON THE RAIDS: 

                         // COHEN ACT //

         THE MOST IMPORTANT MEASURE OF EFFECTIVENESS FOR THIS 
         OPERATION IS - TO BE KIND OF BRUTAL ABOUT IT - NOT 
         BUILDINGS DESTROYED BUT PEOPLE KILLED. HERE WE REALLY 
         HAVE DEVELOPED A CERTAIN KIND OF SKITTISHNESS ABOUT 
         FACING UP TO WHAT IT IS THAT WE ARE REALLY TRYING TO DO,
         WHICH IS TO KILL PEOPLE.

                          // END ACT //

THIS RELUCTANCE TO TAKE LIVES, SAID MR. COHEN, SHARPLY LIMITS THE
POWER OF THE WORLD'S ONLY REMAINING SUPERPOWER. IT HAS AWESOME 
TECHNOLOGY IT IS UNWILLING TO USE. 

THEN WHY THE BOMBING? MR. COHEN SAYS IRAQ HAS FEW REMAINING 
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION TO DESTROY. NOR COULD THE UNITED 
STATES ELIMINATE THEM ALL UNLESS IT WANTS TO DENY PESTICIDES TO 
IRAQ AND ABOLISH SCHOOL LABORATORIES. IN HIS OPINION, THE ATTACK 
WAS LAUNCHED TO PRESERVE U-S CREDIBILITY:

                         // COHEN ACT //

         IT SEEMS TO ME THAT THIS WAS A DECISION WHICH WAS 
         ACTUALLY MADE ON AUTO-PILOT. IT GOES BACK A MONTH AGO TO
         THE LAST STAND-OFF WITH SADDAM, WHEN THE ADMINISTRATION 
         MADE A DECISION - WHICH IT NEVER REEXAMINED - THAT THE 
         NEXT TIME ONE OF THESE THINGS HAPPENED, IT WAS GOING TO 
         PULL THE TRIGGER WITHOUT THINKING, AND THAT IS WHAT THEY
         DID. 

                         // END ACT // 

THERE WAS LITTLE THINKING ABOUT THE REACTION OF MUSLIMS, 
ACCORDING TO SOME MEMBERS OF THE AUDIENCE. REND RAHIM FRANCKE, 
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF AN OPPOSITION GROUP, THE IRAQ FOUNDATION, 
SAID THE UNITED STATES MAY HAVE BEEN ABLE TO STRIKE IRAQ ONCE 
WITHOUT THE SUPPORT OF ARAB COUNTRIES:

                        // FRANCKE ACT // 

         BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT FOR THEM TO TOLERATE RECURRENT 
         STRIKES AT SHORT INTERVALS, AND ESPECIALLY I MIGHT ADD, 
         STRIKES WHICH DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULAR POLITICAL RESULT 
         AND A POLITICAL END GAME. THEY ARE NOT TIED TO A 
         POLITICAL DENOUEMENT IN IRAQ BUT TIED TO PUNISHMENT OR 
         REPRISAL.

                          // END ACT //

REND FRANCKE SAID THE UNITED STATES WILL DO BETTER BY WORKING WITH 
THE IRAQI OPPOSITION SINCE DISCONTENT IN IRAQ IS WIDESPREAD.
(SIGNED)


NEB/PT 




22-Dec-98 5:32 PM EST (2232 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.