DATE=1/22/99 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-42418 TITLE=IRAQ/NATIONAL SECURITY BYLINE=JIM RANDLE DATELINE=PENTAGON CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: A NEW ASSESSMENT OF DECEMBER'S "DESERT FOX" AIR ATTACKS ON IRAQ SAYS THE EFFORT WAS TOO SMALL AND TIMID TO CHANGE THE MILITARY SITUATION IN THE PERSIAN GULF. THE STUDY BY ANTHONY CORDESMAN OF THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES (C-S-I-S) IN WASHINGTON, SAYS BAGHDAD REMAINS A SERIOUS THREAT TO ITS NEIGHBORS. V-O-A'S JIM RANDLE REPORTS THAT MR. CORDESMAN ALSO SAYS U-S CONGRESSIONAL PLANS TO FORGE IRAQI OPPOSITION GROUPS INTO AN EFFECTIVE FORCE AGAINST SADDAM HUSSEIN HAVE NO CHANCE OF SUCCESS. TEXT: PENTAGON OFFICIALS SAY DESERT FOX'S BOMBS AND MISSILES DAMAGED IRAQ'S PROGRAMS TO MAKE OR USE GERM AND CHEMICAL WEAPONS, AND SET BACK BAGHDAD'S MISSILE BUILDING EFFORTS BY ABOUT TWO YEARS. C-S-I-S SCHOLAR ANTHONY CORDESMAN SAYS THE ATTACKS SHOWED IRAQ THAT WASHINGTON IS WILLING TO USE FORCE, AND THAT U-S PLANES CAN HIT KEY TARGETS ANYWHERE AND ANYTIME, WITHOUT HURTING MANY CIVILIANS. HE SAYS DESERT FOX ALSO SHOWED THAT U-S FORCES COULD OPERATE WITHOUT PLACING MAJOR POLITICAL BURDENS ON AMERICA'S RELUCTANT GULF ALLIES. /// CORDESMAN ACT /// WHAT WE DIDN'T DO WAS SHOW THAT WE COULD MATERIALLY CHANGE THE MILITARY SITUATION OR THE THREAT. /// END ACT /// /// OPT /// MR. CORDESMAN IS CO-DIRECTOR OF MIDDLE EAST STUDIES AT THE PRIVATE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN WASHINGTON. HE HAS BEEN STUDYING MIDEAST MILITARY ISSUES FOR DECADES. /// END OPT /// MR. CORDESMAN SAYS THE AIR ATTACKS WRECKED SOME CRITICAL IRAQI EQUIPMENT THAT WILL BE HARD FOR BAGHDAD TO REPLACE AS LONG AS SANCTIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT. HE SAYS THOSE TARGETS INCLUDED FACILITIES TO PRODUCE AND REPAIR MISSILES. BUT MORE THAN 95 PERCENT OF IRAQI AIR DEFENSES SURVIVED, ACCORDING TO MR. CORDESMAN, AS DID MOST OF THE AGING, POORLY-MAINTAINED IRAQI AIR FORCE. HE SAYS BRITISH FORCES OVERSTATED CLAIMS THAT THEY DESTROYED A FLEET OF REMOTE-CONTOLLED AIR CRAFT FITTED OUT TO DISPENSE GERM WEAPONS, AND CALLED ALLIED ATTACKS ON AIR FIELDS "INEFFECTIVE TOKEN EFFORTS." HE ALSO SAYS ESTIMATES THAT TWO THOUSAND MEMBERS OF IRAQ'S ELITE REPUBLICAN GUARD DIED IN THE ATTACKS ARE PROBABLY TOO HIGH, BUT SUCH LOSSES WOULDN'T HAVE A SERIOUS IMPACT ON THAT 80-THOUSAND PERSON FORCE IN ANY CASE. MR. CORDESMAN SAYS MASSIVE IRAQI MILITARY LOSSES IN THE 1991 GULF WAR, AND FURTHER LOSSES DURING THE DESERT FOX ATTACKS, STILL LEAVE BAGHDAD STRONGER THAN ITS NEIGHBORS. /// CORDESMAN ACT /// IRAQ WITH 2700 TANKS COMPETES WITH IRAN WITH 14 HUNDRED (TANKS). IRAN HAS A HIGHER RATE OF OBSOLESCENCE (I.E. OUTDATED TANKS) THAN IRAQ. WITH ABOUT 800 (TANKS) IN SAUDI ARABIA, SOMETHING LIKE HALF ARE OPERATIONAL IN A MEANINGFUL SENSE, AND 180 IN KUWAIT, OF WHICH ABOUT 100 MAY BE OPERATIONAL. /// END ACT /// THE U-S CONGRESS HAS ORDERED THE PENTAGON AND STATE DEPARTMENT TO SEE IF THEY CAN ORGANIZE IRAQI OPPOSITION GROUPS INTO A FORCE THAT CAN HELP TOPPLE IRAQI LEADER SADDAM HUSSEIN. MR. CORDESMAN SAYS SUCH EFFORTS TO TURN UNTRAINED PEOPLE -- WHAT HE CALLED "DILETTANTES" -- INTO A WORLD CLASS FIGHTING FORCE ARE UNREALISTIC. /// CORDESMAN ACT /// HALF-TRAINED OPPOSITION FORCES HAVE ABOUT AS MUCH CHANCE OF OPERATING MODERN TANKS AND MODERN AIR CRAFT AS A SNOWFLAKE HAS IN HELL. IT JUST DOESN'T WORK THIS WAY. /// END ACT /// HE SAYS OPPOSITION GROUPS WILL BE UP AGAINST THE HALF-MILLION MEMBERS OF IRAQ'S MILITARY AND INTERNAL SECURITY SERVICES. HE SAYS REBELLIONS WILL BE DIFFICULT BECAUSE THE THOUSANDS OF IRAQI SECURITY POLICE ARE "COMPETENT AND EVERYWHERE." MR. CORDESMAN SAYS BAGHDAD PAYS TO MAINTAIN THIS MASSIVE MILITARY FORCE, WHILE BLAMING SHORTAGES OF FOOD AND MEDICINE ON ECONOMIC SANCTIONS. HE SAYS SANCTIONS THAT BLOCK IRAQI ARMS IMPORTS HAVE LIMITED BAGHDAD'S MILITARY POWER AND SHOULD STAY IN PLACE, THOUGH HE FAVORS FINDING WAYS TO CHANNEL HUMANITARIAN SUPPLIES TO ORDINARY IRAQIS. (SIGNED). NEB/JR/WDC/GE 22-Jan-99 4:47 PM EST (2147 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .