DATE=2/1/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42490
TITLE=QUESTIONING AID TO THE IRAQI OPPOSITION
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:   WASHINGTON IS DIVIDED ON U-S AID TO THE IRAQI 
OPPOSITION. THE CONGRESS AND THE PRESIDENT ARE IN FAVOR, BUT THE 
MILITARY IS SKEPTICAL. THE COMMANDER OF U-S FORCES IN THE PERSIAN
GULF TOLD CONGRESS THE OPPOSITION HAS LITTLE CHANCE OF 
SUCCEEDING, AND ITS EFFORTS COULD LEAD TO CHAOS IN IRAQ. OTHERS 
SAY THAT THINKING IS TOO PESSIMISTIC AND TENDS TO UNDERMINE THE 
AID PROGRAM. VOA'S ED WARNER REPORTS. 

TEXT:  TESTIFYING  RECENTLY BEFORE THE SENATE ARMED SERVICES 
COMMITTEE, THE U-S COMMANDER IN THE PERSIAN GULF, MAJOR GENERAL 
ANTHONY ZINNI, SAID THE MILITARY AID VOTED FOR THE IRAQI 
OPPOSITION IS ILL ADVISED. IN HIS OPINION, THE OPPOSITION IS TOO 
FRAGMENTED. ITS VARIOUS GROUPS ARE UNWILLING TO COOPERATE AND 
COULD BRING CHAOS, EVEN DISINTEGRATION TO IRAQ.

IN RESPONSE, A U-S STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN SAID THE CLINTON 
ADMINISTRATION IS SOLIDLY BEHIND THE 97 MILLION DOLLAR AID 
PACKAGE VOTED BY CONGRESS, THOUGH IT SHARES THE GENERAL'S CONCERN
THAT THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE AN EASY OR SHORT TERM EFFORT.  

JAMES PHILLIPS, A MIDDLE EAST ANALYST AT THE PRIVATE HERITAGE 
FOUNDATION, SAYS THE PENTAGON IS VERY CAUTIOUS ABOUT SUPPLYING 
WEAPONS ABROAD OR GETTING THE UNITED STATES INVOLVED IN THE USE 
OF FORCE: 

                       // PHILLIPS ACT //

         SECRETARY OF DEFENSE (WILLIAM) COHEN PREVIOUSLY HAD 
         EXPRESSED THIS CAUTION ON THE DAY PRESIDENT CLINTON 
         ANNOUNCED SUPPORT FOR THE IRAQI OPPOSITION. SO THIS IS 
         KIND OF A CONTINUING POLICY OF THE PENTAGON. BUT IT IS 
         TROUBLING BECAUSE IT DOES SUGGEST THERE IS SOME 
         DIFFERENCE OF OPINION BETWEEN THE PENTAGON AND THE STATE
         DEPARTMENT.

                          // END ACT //

PERHAPS NOT AS MUCH AS THE HEADLINES SUGGEST.  A KEY STATE 
DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL SAYS THE SPLIT IS EXAGGERATED. HE NOTES AID 
TO THE IRAQI OPPOSITION IS ONE OF SEVERAL POLICIES AIMED AT THE 
OVERTHROW OF SADDAM HUSSEIN. THE IRAQI LEADER IS NOT LIKELY TO 
MAKE TOO MUCH OF THE DISPUTE OVER AID BECAUSE HE TAKES HIS OWN 
READING OF THE WASHINGTON SCENE, AND IT MAY DIFFER MARKEDLY  FROM
AMERICAN PERCEPTIONS.

REPUBLICANS IN THE U-S CONGRESS ARE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE 
AID. SOME ANALYSTS SUGGEST THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION MAY NOT 
FULLY SHARE THEIR ENTHUSIASM, AND ITS POSITION IS NOT THAT FAR 
REMOVED FROM THE PENTAGON'S. 

THERE IS THE ADDITIONAL QUESTION OF WHAT KIND OF AID SHOULD BE 
PROVIDED. THE KURDS IN NORTHERN IRAQ, FOR EXAMPLE, ARE RELUCTANT 
TO ACCEPT ANY THAT WOULD ANTAGONIZE SADDAM HUSSEIN, WHO IS 
CURRENTLY LEAVING THEM ALONE. TURKEY, WHICH IS FIGHTING A LONG 
WAR WITH KURDISH REBELS IN ITS SOUTH, DOES NOT WANT MORE WEAPONS 
SUPPLIED TO KURDS ACROSS THE BORDER IN IRAQ.   

DANIEL BYMAN, A POLICY ANALYST AT RAND, A PRIVATE RESEARCH 
ORGANIZATION, SAYS THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION IS UNDER PRESSURE 
FROM REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS TO BRING THE CONFLICT WITH IRAQ TO 
SOME KIND OF CONCLUSION. ARAB NATIONS ARE ALSO IMPATIENT WITH U-S
POLICY. SO THE ADMINISTRATION NEEDED A NEW PLAN.

UNFORTUNATELY, LIKE THE PENTAGON, MR. BYMAN BELIEVES IT IS 
FLAWED: 

                         // BYMAN ACT //

         THE MAJOR KURDISH GROUPS HAVE FOUGHT WITH EACH OTHER. 
         THE MOST IMPORTANT SEGMENTS OF THE OPPOSITION HAVE NOT 
         COORDINATED THEIR ACTIONS IN ANY COMPREHENSIVE, 
         SYSTEMATIC WAY, AND INSTEAD HAVE OFTEN GONE THEIR OWN 
         WAYS AND SHOWN LITTLE UNITY.

                          // END ACT //

MR. BYMAN ADDS THAT THE UNITED STATES HAS LET THE KURDS DOWN IN 
THE PAST. HE WOULD NOT LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER ABANDONMENT. 

BUT MR. PHILLIPS OF THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION SAYS THE KURDS COULD 
CHANGE THEIR MIND: 

                       // PHILLIPS ACT //

         AS WE HAVE SEEN BEFORE, SADDAM TENDS TO LASH OUT EVEN 
         WHEN HE IS NOT PROVOKED. AND IF AND WHEN HE DOES, I 
         THINK THE KURDS' ATTITUDE ABOUT ACCEPTING OUTSIDE 
         ASSISTANCE WILL CHANGE VERY QUICKLY. 

                          // END ACT //

MR. PHILLIPS ADDS ACHIEVING COOPERATION AMONG OPPOSITION GROUPS 
NOW WOULD HELP KEEP IRAQ UNIFIED WHEN SADDAM HUSSEIN IS GONE.

RAND ANALYST BYMAN SAYS THERE MUST BE A SOLID CENTRAL AUTHORITY 
TO REPLACE SADDAM:

                         // BYMAN ACT //

         IF THERE IS NO STRONG REGIME, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY 
         THAT IT COULD BREAK UP ETHNICALLY, RELIGIOUSLY, ALONG 
         TRIBAL LINES, THAT THERE COULD BE CHAOS AND FIGHTING. 
         THE QUESTION THE UNITED STATES HAS TO ASK: IS IT WORTH 
         RISKING INCREASED INSTABILITY TO OVERTHROW SADDAM? I 
         WOULD SAY CERTAINLY YES, BUT WE HAVE TO RECOGNIZE THAT 
         IRAQ COULD THEN BECOME A LONG TERM PROBLEM IF CHAOS 
         ENGULFED IT.

                          // END ACT //

AND THAT IS THE PROBLEM GENERAL ZINNI AND THE PENTAGON ARE TRYING
TO AVOID.  (SIGNED)


NEB/PT



01-Feb-99 8:33 PM EST (0133 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.