DATE=3/4/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42764
TITLE=IRAQ ALLIES (CQ)
BYLINE=LAURIE KASSMAN
DATELINE=LONDON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 


INTRO:  AS DEFENSE SECRETARY WILLIAM COHEN HEADS TO THE MIDDLE 
EAST TO DISCUSS THE IRAQI SITUATION, CRITICISM OF U-S AND BRITISH
PATROLS OVER SO-CALLED IRAQI NO-FLY ZONES IS ON THE RISE.  THE 
DAMAGE OF OIL PIPELINE FACILITIES EARLIER THIS WEEK BY U-S 
WARPLANES IN NORTHERN IRAQ HAS BROUGHT SHARP WORDS FROM TURKEY 
AND NEW COMPLAINTS FROM CHINA AND RUSSIA ABOUT THE PATROLS.  
CORRESPONDENT LAURIE KASSMAN LOOKS AT THE RISKS INVOLVED IN 
PROLONGING THE STRATEGY.

TEXT:  WASHINGTON AND LONDON INSIST THE AIM OF THEIR PATROLS OF 
IRAQ'S NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN NO-FLY ZONES HAS  NOT  CHANGED SINCE
THE END OF THE 1991 GULF WAR -- NAMELY TO PROTECT KURDS AND SHIA 
MUSLIMS FROM BAGHDAD'S AGGRESSIONS.

THE ALLIED AIR PATROLS HAVE MORE AGGRESSIVELY RESPONDED TO 
CHALLENGES FROM IRAQI AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS SINCE U-S AND BRITISH 
AIR STRIKES AGAINST IRAQI MILITARY INSTALLATIONS LAST DECEMBER.  

BUT CRITICISM HAS SOARED SINCE AN OIL PIPELINE WAS DAMAGED LAST 
SUNDAY DURING A U-S AIR STRIKE AGAINST A SUSPECTED IRAQI 
COMMAND-AND-CONTROL SITE. 

BRITAIN'S PRIME MINISTER TONY BLAIR DEFENDED THE STRATEGY IN HIS 
COMMENTS TO PARLIAMENT ON WEDNESDAY. 

                        /// BLAIR ACT ///

         IT IS NECESSARY IN ORDER TO PROTECT BOTH THE KURDISH 
         PEOPLE AND THE SHIA MUSLIMS FROM THE BRUTALITY OF SADDAM
         HUSSEIN.  AND IF HE WANTS TO STOP THOSE PATROLS, THEN HE
         CAN COME BACK INTO LINE WITH THE U-N RESOLUTIONS TO STOP
         BUTCHERING THOSE PEOPLE FOR WHOM HE WAS RESPONSIBILITY 
         AND START BEHAVING LIKE A RESPONSIBLE LEADER IN THE 
         WORLD.

                        /// END ACT /// 

BRITAIN'S DEFENSE SECRETARY SAYS IRAQ HAS VIOLATED THE NO-FLY 
ZONE RESTRICTIONS 100 TIMES IN THE PAST 11 WEEKS AND HAS ATTACKED
THE ALLIED AIRCRAFT 50 TIMES IN THAT PERIOD.

// OPT // GEORGE ROBERTSON WAS BLUNT WHEN HE JUSTIFIED THE 
INCREASED ALLIED ATTACKS DURING A BRITISH RADIO INTERVIEW.  

                      /// ROBERTSON ACT ///

         THE IRAQIS ARE TRYING TO KILL THE PILOTS WHO ARE 
         POLICING THE NO-FLY ZONES. IF THEY STOP TRYING TO KILL 
         OUR PILOTS THEN WE'LL STOP DEFENDING OURSELVES. WE WON'T
         NEED TO DEFEND OURSELVES.

                /// END ACT ///   /// END OPT ///

MIDDLE EAST EXPERT NEIL PARTRICK OF THE "ROYAL UNITED SERVICES 
INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE STUDIES" SAYS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AIR 
PATROLS ARE PART OF THE OVERALL STRATEGY OF RATCHETING-UP 
[TIGHTENING] THE PRESSURE ON SADDAM HUSSEIN, ESPECIALLY WHEN 
WORLD ATTENTION WAS FOCUSED ELSEWHERE. 

                   /// FIRST PARTRICK ACT ///

         IT'S BEEN A TACTICAL RESPONSE BY BRITAIN AND AMERICA TO 
         THIS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO PUT MORE PRESSURE ON 
         SADDAM HUSSEIN, SHORT OF MUCH MEDIA OR INTERNATIONAL 
         CONCERN ABOUT WHAT'S GOING ON.  I THINK THE BROAD 
         STRATEGY REMAINS THE SAME -- AND THAT'S AN ACTIVE 
         CONTAINMENT OF SADDAM, WHICH IS BACKED UP BY MILITARY 
         FORCE.

                         /// END ACT ///

BUT MR. PARTRICK SAYS THE DAMAGE TO THE OIL PIPELINE COULD 
UNDERMINE U-S AND BRITISH CREDIBILITY IN THE ARAB WORLD.  OTHER 
ANALYSTS SUGGEST THE PIPELINE DAMAGE WILL BE SEEN AS DISREGARD 
FOR THE POLITICAL REPERCUSSIONS OF MILITARY ACTIONS.

MR. PARTRICK SAYS IT ALSO POINTS UP THE RISK OF PROLONGING THE 
MILITARY STRATEGY, WHICH OPENS THE WAY FOR MORE ACCIDENTS, OR THE
WORST-CASE SCENARIO -- THE DOWNING OF AN ALLIED AIRCRAFT INSIDE 
IRAQ.

THE PIPELINE INCIDENT ALSO HAS RENEWED A SPLIT AMONG KEY MEMBERS 
OF THE U-N SECURITY COUNCIL AHEAD OF NEXT MONTH'S CRUCIAL REVIEW 
OF U-N POLICY TOWARD IRAQ.  CHINA AND RUSSIA CRITICIZE THE NO-FLY
ZONE PATROLS.  FRANCE WILL PUSH FOR A MORE DIPLOMATIC APPROACH.

MR. PARTRICK PREDICTS THAT AS A RESULT, IT WILL BE HARD TO MAKE 
PROGRESS IN THE U-N DEBATE NEXT MONTH. 

                 /// OPT SECOND PARTRICK ACT ///

         IT WILL BRING OUT THE WHOLE DEBATE IN AN INTERNATIONAL 
         FORA ON WHAT THE POLICY SHOULD BE AND IT WILL BRING INTO
         QUESTION, DIRECTLY OR AT LEAST INDIRECTLY, THIS ACTION 
         BY BRITAIN AND AMERICA IN THE NO-FLY ZONES.

                /// END ACT ///   /// END OPT ///

MIDDLE EAST EXPERT NEIL PARTRICK SAYS THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION 
THAT PROLONGING THE DAILY BOMBINGS OF IRAQ'S AIR DEFENSE SITES 
WILL TRIGGER ANY POLITICAL CHANGES INSIDE IRAQ.   (SIGNED)

NEB/LMK/PCF/WTW

04-Mar-99 3:04 PM EST (2004 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.