DATE=3/9/99 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-42808 TITLE=BOMBING IRAQ BYLINE=ED WARNER DATELINE=WASHINGTON CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: U-S JETS ARE ATTACKING IRAQI AIR DEFENSES ON A NEAR DAILY BASIS AND HAVE DESTROYED AN ESTIMATED ONE-FIFTH OF THE COUNTRY'S ANTI-AIRCRAFT MISSILES. THE OBJECT IS TO WEAKEN SADDAM HUSSEIN ENOUGH TO LEAD TO HIS OVERTHROW. BUT THE ATTACKS ARE ALSO KILLING CIVILIANS AND ADDING TO THE DESTRUCTION ALREADY CAUSED BY SEVERAL YEARS OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS. V-O-A'S ED WARNER PROVIDES DIVERGENT VIEWS ON CURRENT U-S POLICY. TEXT: THIS IS A WAR THAT SHOULD BE DECLARED, SAYS TED CARPENTER, DIRECTOR OF FOREIGN POLICY STUDIES AT WASHINGTON'S CATO INSTITUTE. IN HIS OPINION, THE U-S CONGRESS IS SHIRKING ITS CONSTITUTIONAL DUTY BY NOT DEMANDING A VOTE ON THE AIRSTRIKES. THIS IS NOT A WAR, SAYS STEVE YETIV, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY (IN VIRGINIA) AND AUTHOR OF "THE PERSIAN GULF CRISIS." HE CALLS IT A LOW-KEY SET OF MILITARY STRIKES THAT CONTINUES A PATTERN OF CONFLICT BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND IRAQ: // YETIV ACT // WHAT THE UNITED STATES IS NOW TRYING TO DO IS HIT SADDAM WHERE IT REALLY COUNTS -- IN THE IMAGE; THAT IS TO SAY, IF THE UNITED STATES CAN HURT SADDAM'S IMAGE, AS AN INDIVIDUAL WHO IS STRONG AND IN COMMAND, THEN IT CAN CREATE A SITUATION WHERE SOME OF HIS GENERALS MAY TRY TO OVERTHROW HIM. THAT IS THE BIG GOAL. // END ACT // NO COUPS AGAINST SADDAM HUSSEIN HAVE SUCCEEDED TO DATE, SAYS MR. CARPENTER. PERHAPS ONE WILL: // CARPENTER ACT // BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT WE WOULD NECESSARILY GET A RULER WHO IS MUCH BETTER THAN SADDAM. AND THERE CERTAINLY IS THE DANGER THAT THIS KIND OF CONSTANT BOMBARDMENT COULD CAUSE IRAQ, WHICH IS A VERY FRAGILE, ARTIFICIAL POLITICAL ENTITY TO BEGIN WITH, TO COME APART ENTIRELY. AND THAT WOULD HAVE VERY, VERY SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. // END ACT // THE REGION REACTS TO THE U-S PRESSURE ON IRAQ IN VARIOUS WAYS, SAYS PROFESSOR YETIV. WHEN HE WAS IN THE GULF LAST SUMMER, KUWAITIS EXPRESSED SURPRISE THAT THE UNITED STATES HAD NOT BEEN ABLE TO REMOVE THE IRAQI RULER BY NOW. SAUDIS WERE MORE SKEPTICAL OF U-S POLICY, BUT DID NOT OFFER ANY SERIOUS OBJECTIONS: // YETIV ACT // I DO NOT THINK ANYONE HAS ANY LOVE FOR SADDAM IN THE REGION EXCEPT MAYBE IN THE ARAB STREETS OF SOME COUNTRIES. PROBABLY OVERALL, IT IS AN AMBIVALENT APPROACH. THEY ARE NOT EXCITED ABOUT THE UNITED STATES BOMBING AN ARAB COUNTRY. BUT AT THE SAME TIME, THEY REALIZE THAT SADDAM IS THE PROBLEM, AND THE SOONER HE LEAVES THE BETTER. // END ACT // DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THAT ARAB STREET REACTION, CAUTIONS TED CARPENTER. HE BELIEVES THERE IS GROWING RESENTMENT OF THE UNITED STATES THAT COULD EXPLODE IN TERRORIST ACTS AGAINST AMERICANS. HE SAYS THE ARAB NATIONS WENT ALONG WITH THE UNITED STATES WHEN SADDAM INVADED KUWAIT, LAUNCHING THE GULF WAR: // CARPENTER ACT // BUT SINCE THEN, IT LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKE THE UNITED STATES IS A BULLY THAT IS BEATING UP ON A HELPLESS COUNTRY SIMPLY TO TRY TO DISLOGE A LEADER THAT WE DO NOT LIKE. AND THERE ARE MORE DIRECT WAYS OF ACCOMPLISHING THAT -- IF THAT IS REALLY OUR GOAL -- WITHOUT MAKING THE IRAQI PEOPLE SUFFER MONTH AFTER MONTH YEAR AFTER YEAR. // END ACT // INCREASINGLY, THAT SUFFERING SEEMS TO BE QUESTIONED EVEN BY SUPPORTERS OF U-S POLICY. "THE (LONDON) ECONOMIST" (MAGAZINE) NOTES THE BOMBING IS REDUCING IRAQ'S OIL EXPORTS, WHICH ARE USED TO PAY FOR FOOD AND MEDICINE. "MR. HUSSEIN CAN SURVIVE WITHOUT THIS," SAYS THE ECONOMIST. "HIS LONG SUFFERING CITIZENS CANNOT." (SIGNED) NEB/EW/RRM 09-Mar-99 6:07 PM EST (2307 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .