DATE=3/18/99 TYPE=ENGLISH PROGRAMS FEATURE NUMBER=7-31649 TITLE=SHI'ITES OF IRAQ (**UPDATES INTRO) BYLINE=JUDITH LATHAM TELEPHONE=619-3464 DATELINE=WASHINGTON EDITOR=SUSAN CLARK CONTENT = INTRO: THE GOVERNMENT OF IRAQ SAYS IT HAS ARRESTED FIVE PEOPLE FOR LAST MONTH'S ASSASSINATION OF THE COUNTRY'S LEADING SHI'ITE MUSLIM LEADER. THE ALLEGED KILLERS -- WHO ARE CHARGED WITH GUNNING DOWN THE GRAND AYATOLLAH AND HIS TWO ADULT SONS -- CONFESSED TO THE CRIME ON AN IRAQI TELEVISION BROADCAST TODAY/THURSDAY [3/18/99]. THE MURDERS HAVE RAISED QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER SADDAM HUSSEIN FEARS A POTENTIAL THREAT FROM HIS MAJORITY SHI'ITE [SHEE-EYET] POPULATION. V-O-A'S JUDITH LATHAM HAS TALKED WITH SOME REGIONAL ANALYSTS WHO BELIEVE THE IRAQI LEADER MAY INDEED FEAR SUCH A THREAT, WHETHER JUSTIFIED OR NOT. HERE'S ______ WITH A REPORT. TEXT: ON FEBRUARY 19TH, IRAQ'S SENIOR SHI'ITE LEADER, AYATOLLAH MOHAMMED SADEK AL-SADR [SAH-DEK AL-SAH-DER], AND HIS TWO SONS WERE SHOT TO DEATH. EXILED IRAQI OPPOSITION GROUPS AND FOREIGN DIPLOMATS SAY THAT VIOLENT DEMONSTATIONS SUBSEQUENTLY BROKE OUT IN BAGHDAD, NAJAF, AND OTHER CITIES IN SOUTHERN IRAQ IN RESPONSE TO THE KILLINGS. THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT HAS DENIED REPORTS THAT DOZENS OF PEOPLE WERE KILLED AND SCORES MORE WOUNDED IN THESE CLASHES. HOWEVER, THE SPOKESMAN IN LONDON FOR THE OPPOSITION SUPREME COUNCIL OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION IN IRAQ, HAMED AL-BAYATI [HAHM-ED AL-BYE-YAH-TEE], SAYS THE SITUATION IN IRAQ REMAINS TENSE. TAPE: CUT ONE -- AL-BAYATI (0:15) "WE HAVE CONFIRMED REPORTS. WE HAVE DIRECT CONTACT WITH PEOPLE INSIDE IRAQ WHO CONFIRM THAT THERE WERE DEMONSTRATIONS. THERE WERE INJURED PEOPLE, AND PEOPLE WHO WERE KILLED IN THOSE DEMONSTRATONS, IN ADDITION TO A CAMPAIGN OF MASS ARRESTS." TEXT: OPPOSITION LEADERS SAY THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT ORDERED THE MURDERS TO COUNTER GROWING DISSENT BY IRAQ'S MAJORITY SHI'ITE POPULATION. THE IRAQI SHI'ITES HAVE FREQUENTLY COME INTO CONFLICT WITH THE RULING BA'ATH [BAH-ATH] PARTY OF SADDAM HUSSEIN, WHICH IS LARGELY DRAWN FROM THE MINORITY SUNNI MUSLIM POPULATION OF CENTRAL IRAQ. THE IRAQI KURDS, WHO LIVE MOSTLY WITHIN THE NORTHERN NO-FLY ZONE, ARE ALSO SUNNI MUSLIMS. BUT, THE SHI'ITES LIVE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN NO-FLY ZONE, WHICH WAS ESTABLISHED AFTER THE GULF WAR IN 1991 TO PROTECT THEM FROM SADDAM HUSSEIN. AND ABOUT HALF THE POPULATION OF THE CAPITAL CITY OF BAGHDAD IS ALSO SHI'ITE. IT'S ESTIMATED THAT THE SHI'ITES -- OR SHI'I [SHEE-EE] AS THEY ARE CALLED IN ARABIC -- COMPRISE BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL IRAQI POPULATION OF 22 MILLION. PROFESSOR PETER SLUGLETT IS THE DIRECTOR OF THE MIDDLE EAST CENTER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF UTAH. HE SAYS IT IS WIDELY SUSPECTED THAT THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT WAS BEHIND THE FEBRUARY 19TH ASSASSINATION. TAPE: CUT TWO -- SLUGLETT (0:16) "THIS IS WHAT ONE HAS COME TO EXPECT FROM THIS GOVERNMENT -- THAT ANY OTHER CENTER, OR POLE OF ATTRACTION, IS LIKELY TO BE DESTROYED BY THE REGIME, WHICH IS VERY, VERY FEARFUL OF ANY FOCUS OF OPPOSITION TO ITSELF." TEXT: THE LEADERS OF THE OPPOSITION SUPREME COUNCIL OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION IN IRAQ HAVE SUGGESTED THAT, IF WASHINGTON AND ITS ALLIES ARE SERIOUS ABOUT REPLACING SADDAM HUSSEIN, THEY MUST FIND WAYS TO PROTECT THE SHI'ITE COMMUNITIES THAT COULD FORM THE BACKGROUND OF OPPOSITION TO THE IRAQI PRESIDENT. BUT, PROFESSOR SLUGLETT SAYS, THERE ARE SERIOUS PRACTICAL PROBLEMS FACING ANY OPPOSITION MOVEMENT ATTEMPTING TO OVERTHROW THE IRAQI PRESIDENT. TAPE: CUT THREE -- SLUGLETT (0:17) "UNFORTUNATELY, I SEE WASHINGTON'S DESIRE TO FOMENT A REVOLUTION IN IRAQ AS REALLY RATHER FANCIFUL. TO BE BRUTALLY FRANK, THE ONLY WAY IN WHICH WASHINGTON IS LIKELY TO BE ABLE TO REMOVE SADDAM HUSSEIN IS TO INVADE IRAQ AND ACTUALLY DEFEAT THE IRAQI ARMED FORCES." TEXT: PROFESSOR SLUGLETT REMINDS THAT IN 1996 THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT IN IRAQ WAS INFILTRATED AND ITS RINGLEADERS WERE ROUNDED UP, TORTURED, AND EXECUTED. AND, IN !991, HE SAYS, JUST AFTER THE GULF WAR, THE UNITED STATES HAD FAILED TO SUPPORT A SHI'ITE UPRISING. AND THEIR LEADERS ARE STILL BITTER ABOUT WHAT THEY REGARD AS A BETRAYAL BY THE WEST. PROFESSOR SLUGLETT SAYS MANY ARE SKEPTICAL OF WASHINGTON'S SUPPORT FOR THE IRAQI OPPOSITION. TAPE: CUT FOUR -- SLUGLETT (0:28) "WASHINGTON, FOR EXAMPLE, IS VERY KEEN ON BACKING MODERATE LEADERS AND PREPARING SOME SORT OF GOVERNMENT-IN-EXILE, IN EFFECT, TO TAKE OVER IN IRAQ. BUT, THE SORT OF PEOPLE THAT THEY ARE LOOKING AT HAVE NO FOLLOWING WITHIN IRAQ. IT'S PERHAPS EASY TO SAY THIS WITH HINDSIGHT, BUT HAD DESERT STORM GONE ON TO BAGHDAD, HAD THE UNITED STATES BEEN COMPLETELY RESOLUTE IN QUASHING SADDAM HUSSEIN IN '91, WE WOULD NOT BE HAVING THIS CONVERSATION." TEXT: (OPT) PETER SLUGLETT SAYS HE BELIEVES THE RECENT DEMONSTRATIONS AGAINST THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT REPRESENT A PUBLIC OUTPOURING OF EMOTION OVER THE MURDER OF THE LEADING SHI'A [SHE-AH] MUSLIM CLERIC. TAPE: CUT FIVE -- SLUGLETT (0:23) "THERE IS A SITUATION OF VERY GREAT FRUSTRATION, BUT ALSO THE SENSE OF SOLEMN RESIGNATION TO THE REALITY OF AN EXTREMELY BRUTAL POLICE STATE. HOWEVER, FROM TIME TO TIME, PEOPLE IN THIS KIND OF SITUATION ARE PUSHED OVER THE EDGE BY EVENTS THAT THEY SIMPLY CANNOT TOLERATE ANY MORE. AND I WOULD SUSPECT THAT IS WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN SOUTHERN IRAQ." TEXT: THE GOVERNMENT OF SADDAM HUSSEIN, THE PROFESSOR SAYS, FEARS ANY FORM OF ORGANIZED OPPOSITION. TAPE : CUT SIX -- SLUGLETT (0:47) "THIS IS A GOVERNMENT WHICH HAS NO POPULAR MANDATE. AND AFTER ALL, ONE HAS TO TAKE THE EXAMPLE OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN, IN WHICH THE OPPOSITION TO AN UNPOPULAR AND DICTATORIAL REGIME WAS FOMENTED THOUGH RELIGIOUS INSTITUTIONS AND ORGANIZATIONS. I THINK IT IS REALLY AS SIMPLE AS THAT. (OPT) THE EFFECT OF DICTATORIAL REGIMES IS TO EMPHASIZE PRE-POLITICAL ASSOCIATION -- BY FAMILY, CLAN, LOCALITY, AND ALSO RELIGION. (END OPT) IT IS THESE KINDS OF DICTATORIAL REGIMES -- LIKE THE ONE IN IRAN UNDER THE SHAH AND THE ONE IN IRAQ -- THAT HAVE CREATED RELIGIOUS-BASED OPPOSITION." (END OPT) TEXT: PROFESSOR SLUGLETTT, DIRECTOR OF THE MIDDLE EAST CENTER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF UTAH. 18-Mar-99 8:57 AM EST (1357 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .