DATE=8/3/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=IRAQ-TURKEY
NUMBER=5-46784
BYLINE=YONCA POYRAZ DOGAN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
NOT VOICED:

INTRO:  Ten years after Iraq invaded Kuwait and 
triggered the Gulf war, United Nations economic 
sanctions against Baghdad are still in effect.  But 
the sanctions do not only affect Iraq. They have 
indirect consequences throughout the region, notably 
in neighboring Turkey.  V-O-A's Yonca Poyraz Dogan 
[PRON: 'YOHN-JA 'POY-RAHZ DO-'AHN] has the details:


TEXT:  As a member of the international coalition 
against Iraq during the Gulf war, Turkey played an 
important role in helping to contain Saddam Hussein's 
regime.  But as Turkish officials point out, that role 
has turned out to be costly.

Before the U-N sanctions against Baghdad, Turkey's 
trade with Iraq was worth about two-point-five-billion 
dollars a year.  Since the sanctions were imposed a 
decade ago, Turkey estimates it has lost about 30-
billion dollars in lost business with its neighbor.  
There is unofficial trade between the two countries, 
much of it petroleum smuggling, but officials have not 
given any estimates of its worth.

Alan Makovsky, a senior analyst at the Washington 
Institute for Near East Policy, said Turkey will 
continue to suffer economically because of the 
sanctions.

            /// MAKOVSKY ACT ONE ///

      There is a lot of frustration about what to do 
      about Saddam and there are no simple answers 
      about how to bring him down.  But ending the 
      sanctions would in effect mean his full 
      rehabilitation and I really cannot imagine an 
      administration of Al Gore or George W. Bush 
      condoning that. I do think the United States 
      ought to recognize the special burden that 
      Turkey has had to bear. I think the United 
      States should find ways to be supportive of the 
      Turkish economy.

            /// END ACT ///

Turkey's concerns are not only financial.  The U-S 
policy to support the northern Iraq's Kurdish 
opposition also worries Turkey.

Mr. Makovsky, who was a political advisor in 1992 for 
the joint U-S and Turkish campaign to deter Iraqi 
attacks against northern Iraq, said Turkey's major 
concern now is the same as it was after the Gulf War.

            /// MAKOVSKY ACT TWO///

      That is the fear that there will emerge either 
      an independent Kurdish state or (a) robustly 
      autonomous Kurdish entity.  Turkey worries that 
      Turkish Kurds will be infected by Iraqi Kurdish 
      separatism.

            /// END ACT ///

The United States does not support the idea of an 
independent Kurdish nation.  Washington also does not 
want to antagonize its ally, Turkey.  But Mr. Makovsky 
says the Kurds are able to survive beyond Baghdad's 
control in northern Iraq because of the U-S-led 
Operation Northern Watch, which enforces so-called 
"no-fly" zones to contain Saddam Hussein's military 
operations in the area.  The U-S and British planes 
taking part in the operation are based at Turkey's 
Incirlik Air Base.

Meanwhile, the U-S effort to unify northern Iraqi 
Kurds has not been successful.  The two leading Iraqi 
Kurdish parties -- Massoud Barzani's Kurdistan 
Democratic Party and Jalal Talabani's Patriotic Union 
of Kurdistan -- remain separate and often hostile 
groups.

Mr. Makovsky of the Institute for Near East Policy 
says Turkey insists on maintaining Iraq's territorial 
integrity to avoid Kurdish separatism.

            /// MAKOVSKY ACT THREE ///

      I don't think it's a secret that Turkey would 
      like to see the Kurds make some kind of a deal 
      with Saddam.  Turkey would like to see a return 
      of central government control to northern Iraq.  
      But at the same time, Turkey knows that is a 
      result unacceptable to the U-S and the U-S is a 
      crucial ally of Turkey's.

            /// END ACT ///

For now, Mr. Makovsky concludes, Turkey accepts the 
U.S. goals.

On several occasions, Turkey launched military 
operations in northern Iraq to prevent the Kurdish 
separatist group, the P-K-K (Kurdistan Workers' 
Party), from using the region as a base to attack 
Turkey.  This Turkish concern has been lessened with 
last year's capture of the P-K-K leader, Abdullah 
Ocalan.

However, Turkish leaders are still concerned about the 
heavy economic burden created by international 
sanctions against Iraq, especially for the largely 
poor southeastern Turkey.

NEB/YPD/JP




03-Aug-2000 17:28 PM LOC (03-Aug-2000 2128 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.