DATE=01/08/01

TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT

TITLE=BRITAIN / IRAQ (L-ONLY)

NUMBER=2-271142

BYLINE=TOM RIVERS

DATELINE=LONDON

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: A British newspaper reports that Prime Minister Tony Blair's government will propose to the incoming Bush administration in the United States that patrols over Iraq's southern no-fly zone be halted. Tom Rivers reports from London.

TEXT: Officially, Britain's Ministry of Defense says the decade-old Iraqi no-fly zone policy remains unchanged. And a spokesman labels the Guardian newspaper report as speculative.

However, the paper report says Britain is currently reviewing the situation and is expected to push for an end to U-S and British fighter patrols over the southern zone.

Citing unnamed sources, the Guardian report says Saddam Hussein's campaign against the Shi'ite Muslims below the 32nd parallel had effectively stopped. Also, it says fears of hitting civilians and losing coalition pilots over the zone had influenced current British policy thinking.

Analyst Paul Beaver from the publication Jane's Defense Weekly concurs.

/// BEAVER ACT 1 ///

I think there's a feeling in the British political establishment that the time has come to review the policy against Saddam Hussein and not just the bombing but also sanctions. And although ministers will go on the media and tell everyone that it's working, of course it's not. And we can see that because Saddam Hussein appears to be stronger than he was a decade ago.

/// END ACT ///

Analyst Paul Beaver says the arrival of the new Bush administration in the U-S may be a good opportunity to change the policy, which then could help Britain diplomatically in the Arab world.

/// BEAVER ACT 2 ///

It's, I think, a case that Britain politically doesn't want to be isolated in the Arab world in the way in which the United States is. And Britain has powerful friends in the Gulf - people like the United Arab Emirates and the kingdom of Saudi Arabia don't like the idea of bombing of fellow Arab and providing for the support for that in the case of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. So, I think the time has probably come for a policy review and I have no doubt that it's going on at the moment.

/// END ACT ///

While the Guardian reports that change may be in store over southern Iraq, there are no plans to alter the no-fly zone in effect over the northern part of the country, where, as the paper explains, a threat against Iraqi Kurds remains.

/// OPT /// The western allies imposed no-fly zones for Iraqi military aircraft after the 1991 Gulf War to protect rebellious Shi'ite Muslims in the south and Kurds in the north from air attacks by Iraqi government forces. /// END OPT ///

As to any timetable, a British Ministry of Defense spokesman says that Iraqi policy - including the no-fly zone issue - will certainly be discussed between Washington and London, sooner rather than later, once the Bush administration takes power. (Signed)

NEB/TR/GE/JWH