American and Iraqi Experts Discuss Iraq's Future

By William B. Reinckens
Washington File Writer

Washington - U.S. and Iraqi experts spoke recently about the options,
perceptions, politics and reality of the Iraqi regime of Saddam
Hussein at a conference to mark the tenth anniversary of the Gulf War.

The conference was hosted by the Iraq Foundation in Washington April
6. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Edward
Walker participated in one panel discussion on Iraq's future and what
might be done to encourage regime change.

Walker said that when the Bush administration took over in January, an
Iraq policy review was undertaken in three areas: the United Nations
and its sanctions policy; U.S. military posture and how it relates to
the No-Fly zones; and "how best to achieve a policy that will give a
better life to the Iraqi people."

Walker said the new administration found gross violations of the U.N.
sanctions, with illegal oil exports used to purchase goods and
services not permitted under the sanctions regime.

Walker said the original purpose of the U.N. sanctions was to deny
Saddam Hussein the opportunity to develop weapons of mass destruction
(WMD) and stop him from putting together an effective military after
the Gulf War. Walker emphasized that the sanctions "were not designed
to punish anyone."

The assistant secretary said the Bush administration has been working
toward "reconstituting a consensus in the region" for a sanctions
regime that would deny Saddam Hussein the capability to threaten his
neighbors but allow consumer goods to reach the Iraqi people.

Walker said countries with historically close economic ties to Iraq
may suffer economic difficulties from the sanctions. He said those
countries could be compensated with funds from a U.N. fund, which was
established with the oil-for-food program to help victims of Iraqi
aggression in 1990-1991.

Charles Duelfer, a former U.N. weapons inspector for Iraq and now a
scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington, said Iraq still retains a WMD capability and "has a track
record over the past 25 years" of using it. He said that the regime
likely has retained missile technology to deliver WMD agents.

Duelfer said that Iraq is not as big a threat as it was in 1989 but
still presents a serious threat to its neighbors and Mideast
stability.

SADDAM'S CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS PROGRAMS

Dr. Hussain Al-Sharristani, of the Iraq Refugee Aid Council (IRAC),
said Saddam Hussein's chemical and biological weapons programs have
caused great harm to the Iraqi people.

"The people of Iraq are suffering the effects of a cocktail of deadly
toxins - high rates of cancer, particularly leukemia among children,
congenital deformations and abortion," he said.

Al-Sharristani said Iraq's environment was contaminated by chemical
warfare agents when Saddam Hussein ordered their use against Iraqis
and in the war zone during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980's. Among the
toxins developed by Saddam Hussein's regime were botulism, anthrax,
aflatoxin, gas gangrene, ricin, and wheat smut, he said.

According to Al-Sharristani, Iraq admitted to the U.N. Special
Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM) that it produced 19,900 litres of
concentrated botulism, 8,500 litters of concentrated anthrax and 2,200
litres of concentrated aflatoxin. Iraq claimed that it destroyed these
toxins in 1991 but did not provide dates or locations for the
destruction operations, he said.

"I'm afraid that the innocent population will have to suffer the
consequences of these toxins for many years to come, unless an
international effort is made to clean the environment in Iraq from
these deadly pollutants," he said.

"The chemical and biological warfare material presently in Saddam's
hands are enough to kill almost all the population of Iraq in less
than a day," said Al-Sharristani.

MARSH ARABS

Several speakers at the conference addressed the fate of the Marsh
Arabs in southern Iraq. Between 1992-95, thousands of hectares of
marshland were drained, whole villages were burned and inhabitants
were either killed or forced to flee. Even before the marshes were
drained, toxic chemicals and poisons were dumped into the marshes to
kill fish, a staple for the Shia population living there, according to
environmental experts who spoke. They called for a World Health
Organization inspection inside Iraq to look for environmental
problems.

In 1995, the European Union passed a resolution designating the Marsh
Arabs a "persecuted minority" and accused the Iraqi government of
"genocide." Baroness Emma Nicholson, the head of the AMAR
International Charitable Foundation, which looks after 95,000 south
Iraqi Shias living in refugee camps in southern and western Iran, said
that she would like to see all control of the UN Oil-for-Food program
be taken out of Iraq's hands as it relates to food distribution.
Experts estimated there are more than 5 million Iraqi refugees living
outside the country.

Nicholson, who is a member of the British Parliament and the European
Parliament, said it's important for the international community to
"start planning now" for when there is a regime change in Iraq to meet
the human and environmental problems of Iraq.

(Distributed by the Office of International Information Programs, U.S.
Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)