IZMIR, Turkey — The United States/United Kingdom coalition and the U.S. National Security Council tell him "to keep Saddam in the box," Brig. Gen. Edward "Buster" Ellis says.
And, indeed, no Iraqi warplane has flown north of the 36th parallel since November 1999.
But the new commander of Operation Northern Watch worries that U.S. public opinion could be "captivated by our own culture."
Story lines usually have a neat resolution. But Ellis said if the public thinks ONW "is going to tee it up and kick it off," and there is going to be a winner and loser, they’re wrong.
Operation Northern Watch boils down to this: Coalition aircraft protect Kurds living in northern Iraq.
But in sharp contrast to the simplicity of the operation, ONW planes fly through a complex political landscape fraught with contradictions and ethnic intrigues.
The politics start in Washington and end in Ankara.
Media reports last week stated that Air Force Gen. Joseph W. Ralston recommended that the Bush administration end ONW patrols, wary of losses at a time when Iraqi attacks against U.S. and British planes have intensified.
Those reports stated that Ralston, commander in chief of the U.S. European Command, favors responding to specific Iraqi threats in the no-fly zones.
Maj. Ed Loomis, a EUCOM spokesman, declined to comment on the accuracy of those reports.
At the same time, "you hear noises" that Turkey won’t renew ONW, said Michael Gunter, a U.S. expert on the Kurds.
Turkish leaders "flirt" with Saddam, "and certainly have more relations with him than we do," Gunter said.
Turkey allows U.S. and British planes to fly ONW missions from Incirlik Air Base at a time when Ankara politicians are moving closer to Baghdad, and Turkish officials are complaining that sanctions against Saddam are punishing Turkey’s foundering economy.
But Turkey needs ONW to keep tabs on Kurdish separatists, whom the Turks have fought for 16 years, Gunter said.
During an interview in late April, Ellis said he had received no indications from Washington of a change in policy on Iraq. Ellis did say that U.S. officers examined informal contingency plans should the Turkish parliament vote not to renew ONW.
The Turkish parliament votes to renew ONW each June 30 and Jan. 31.
Could this mission be flown from Aviano Air Base in Italy?
Yes, Ellis said. But it would be tough.
Launching missions 1,700 miles away from northern Iraq rather than 400 miles would mean people working to their absolute limits of their normal duty day, "too long for many crews," Ellis said.
"Could it be done?" Ellis said. "Yes. Is it optimal? No. But the one thing I’ve learned is that our Air Force can do almost anything you ask them to do."
So far, Washington asks U.S. units to protect Kurds in the north from a vengeful Saddam.
Protecting the people on the ground from each other is a much more difficult proposition.
A dozen ethnic groups are packed into northern Iraq.
During the past 10 years, the two major Iraqi Kurdish groups have spent far more time fighting each other than Saddam.
The Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan now are cooperating. Both the KDP and the PUK sent representatives to Ankara last week, seeking support for their fight against Iraq.
But in the past, the groups also have looked to Syria, Iran and even Baghdad for support to fight one another.
When they’re not fighting each other, they’re often at odds with the Kurdistan Workers Party, Turkish separatists known as the PKK.
"There are voices [in Turkey saying] that there is no longer a need" for ONW, said Safeen Dizayee, a KDP spokesman in Ankara.
But an Iraqi feint against Kurdish forces at Bai’drah last December, which dissolved after the threat of ONW air attacks, was "a reminder to Ankara that [the] threat is still there. I think it’ll go on," Dizayee added.
The Bush administration has promised a new Iraq policy in June.
Secretary of State Colin Powell refers to "the three baskets" of U.S. policy — ONW and Operation Southern Watch in the south, sanctions and regime change.
"We … understand that the policy review is not confirmed, that some sections of it are more mature than others," said Qua’bad Talabany, the PUK representative in Washington.
"Sanctions are the main issue now."
KDP is talking to Bush policymakers, who, spokesman Dizayee said, are "committing to protecting the general population, not individual parties or people. And that’s probably as it should be."