Theater Missile Defense (TMD) is a concept behind a missile-based air-defense system that is now being developed for the purpose of defending U.S. troops stationed overseas and nations that are U.S. allies and friends. The TMD system will detect the launch of enemy missiles by means of airborne warning and control systems (AWACS), satellites, etc., and will destroy enemy missiles by means of intercept missiles located on land and on sea.
The U.S. Government estimates that TMD development costs will be about 12 billion dollars from 1995 to 1999. Progress is being made in the development of new missiles such as the THAAD, which will destroy ballistic missiles in the upper atmosphere; the ERINT, for the middle and lower altitudes; and the LEAP, for defense in outer space.
The percentage of Scud warheads actually destroyed by Patriot missiles is considered low. However, in the regional conflicts that have occurred frequently after the Cold War, the threat of ballistic missiles has become a reality. Furthermore, the Gulf War was an epoch-making turning point showing that the technology for intercepting 1,000-km and longer-range airborne missiles with missiles had entered into the practical stage.
Later, from the individual systems such as that of the Patriot, the U.S. launched the Theater Missile Defense (TMD) concept, which takes into account air defense against a broad range of ballistic missiles. The U.S. asked Japan to participate as well, and since 1993 the Defense Agency has been setting up places for discussions about TMD with the U.S. This April the Defense Agency began TMD studies at a special research office it set up for meetings between staff officers from the Ground, Maritime, and Air Self- Defense Forces.
TMD also conceals the possibility of becoming the "live coal" that will jolt Japan's defense industry. The cost of constructing a TMD [system] is said to be as low as one trillion yen and as high as three trillion yen. If Japan does decide to introduce TMD, whether or not defense- related firms become involved in TMD will largely affect their destiny as the budget for armaments for direct use in warfare steadily tapers down.
In September 1994 eight defense companies, which include Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Electric, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, NEC, and Toshiba, formed a research group within the Japan Defense Industry Association. Called the "Air-Defense Systems Research Group," the group conducts joint studies that take a close look at TMD and has begun an "independent private-sector study" (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries).
The research group will be divided into four expert groups that will compile internal reports by as early as mid-May.
On an individual basis, Mitsubishi Electric formed an expert team of 20 people, most of whom are engineers, and started its own TMD research. The goal is, "as the top missile maker, to be ready to deal with anything," said Executive Officer Ichiro Taniguchi.
Warnings About Introduction of Finished Products The quick response of defense-related manufacturers is not just due to their expectations about large-scale projects. Actually, there is also the flip-sided viewpoint warning that "no firm will profit from TMD." The U.S. Government is spending a huge sum of money to develop new missiles for TMD. Systems such as the THAAD and ERINT are already in the testing stage. Some feel strongly that, if Japan adopts TMD, the U.S. will want Japan to introduce completed products from the U.S. rather than begin new development.
In such a case, "being brought the whole thing [by the U.S.] will make it hard for Japan's defense industry to maintain its production and technology bases" (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries). Furthermore, because "budget allocations in all directions are difficult in a limited budget" (Mitsubishi Electric), an industry spokesman's warning that "it will shift the burden onto other non-TMD budgets" is starting to come to the forefront.
On the other hand, those that detect a opportunity in the possibility of introduction of TMF systems from the U.S. are the trading companies. The Mitsubishi Corporation already acquired the rights from Lockheed-Martin to act as the agent for THAAD [technology], and C. Ito & Co. from U.S. Loral Boat Systems for ERINT [technology]. Both trading companies are waiting for the chance to sell to the Defense Agency.
Nevertheless, in comparison to the movement in the private sector, the Defense Agency is wary about participation in TMD. There are a number of issues: Is it really possible to directly hit and destroy the warhead of a ballistic missile at Mach 3-5? From where are the threats against Japan assumed to be, before building the system? How to raise the hundreds of millions of yen per year that will be needed for TDM?